736
AXUS73 KLSX 081505
DGTLSX
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2013
...SEVERE DROUGHT IS REMOVED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY NINE MONTHS...ALL OF THE WFO LSX COUNTY
WARNING AREA IS NOW FREE OF D2/SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS HAS TRANSPIRED
DUE TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE START OF THE
NEW YEAR. MOST LOCATIONS SINCE JANUARY 1 ARE ONE TO THREE INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL REGARDING TOTAL PRECIPITATION. OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES
(ST. LOUIS...COLUMBIA...AND QUINCY) ARE ALL AROUND 1.50 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL. RECENT HEAVY SNOWSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FINALLY VANQUISH THE D2/SEVERE DROUGHT OVER THESE
AREAS. SNOWMELT OVER THE PAST WEEK HAS BROUGHT RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS
AS WELL AS ABNORMALLY MOIST SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE INFILTRATION
OF WATER FROM SNOWMELT.
CURRENTLY...
HERE ARE THE DROUGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE ST. LOUIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA):
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CURRENTLY AFFECTS ALL OR PARTS OF
KNOX...LEWIS...SHELBY...MARION...MONROE...WESTERN RALLS...AUDRAIN...BOONE
CRAWFORD...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...COLE...AND FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OSAGE COUNTIES IN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN ILLINOIS.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AFFECTS ALL OR PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN RALLS...PIKE...LINCOLN...WARREN...WESTERN ST. CHARLES...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...GASCONADE...AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS...WESTERN BROWN AND PIKE
COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS.
ALL OF ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...JEFFERSON...WASHINGTON...ST. FRANCOIS...
STE. GENEVIEVE...REYNOLDS...IRON...AND MADISON COUNTIES IN MISSOURI
AND GREENE...JERSEY...MACOUPIN...MONTGOMERY...MADISON...BOND...FAYETTE...
ST. CLAIR...CLINTON...WASHINGTON...MARION...MONROE...AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
IN ILLINOIS.
DETAILS AND EXPLANATIONS ABOUT THE MONITOR AND A DESCRIPTION OF EACH
CATEGORY CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS CAN BE FOUND AT THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE WEBSITE:
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/STATE_CROP_PROGRESS_AND_
CONDITION/INDEX.ASP
SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NOW ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH DUE
TO THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND SNOWMELT. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI ARE IN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE.
FIRE IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) ANALYSIS RATES THE
LONG TERM FIRE POTENTIAL AS LOW DUE TO RECENT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND SNOWMELT.
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE KBDI AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND
ON THE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WFAS.US
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM
MARCH TO MAY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF MAY CONTINUES TO
FAVOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WHILE THERE WAS SEVERAL DAYS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW...ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION THIS PAST WEEK...THIS FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH WAS STILL A WEEK OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
REGARDLESS...RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS REMAINED
NEAR OR ABOVE MEDIAN STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TRIBUTARIES WERE
MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE ABUNDANT SNOW AND ICE
COVER THAN IS LIKELY TO MELT IN THE COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL ADD 2
TO 3 INCHES OF WATER TO SOILS AND LIKELY RAISE STREAMFLOWS IN THESE
AREAS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOUT A HALF FOOT IN
THE PAST WEEK AT JEFFERSON CITY...WITH LESSER RISES DOWNSTREAM.
WHILE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RISE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS DOES NOT
ACCOUNT FOR A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER BASIN.
ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS...THE STAGE HAD DROPPED ABOUT
3 FEET IN THE PAST WEEK...BUT IS FORECAST TO RISE AT LEAST 7 FEET
NEXT WEEK. THIS RISE DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THIS WEEKEND'S STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD PROVIDE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE STAGE THURSDAY
MORNING HAD DROPPED TO 0.1 FEET...THE RIVER SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS
LEVEL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS HAS
COMPLETED CONTRACTUAL CHANNEL WIDENING WORK THIS WEEK ON SUBMERGED
ROCK FORMATIONS NEAR GRAND TOWER ILLINOIS AND NEAR THEBES ILLINOIS.
...PROVIDING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHANNEL DEPTH AND WIDTH IN THESE
AREAS.
ON OTHER NAVIGABLE RIVERS...THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT MEREDOSIA HAS
RISEN ABOUT A FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A
RISE OF ANOTHER 3 FEET IN THE NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE ILLINOIS RIVER
SEVERAL FEET ABOVE NAVIGATIONAL CONCERNS. ON THE KASKASKIA
RIVER...CARLYLE DAM IS RELEASING ABOUT 6000 CFS...JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. OVERALL...NAVIGATION SHOULD NOT ENCOUNTER LOW WATER PROBLEMS
IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
NEXT ISSUANCE...
AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS
SERVICE AREA IN RECENT WEEKS...THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL NOT
BE UPDATED UNTIL CONDITIONS AGAIN WARRANT.
RELATED WEB SITES...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAINTLOUIS
MIDWEST CLIMATE CENTER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE:
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/DROUGHT/DROUGHT.JSP
MISSOURI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://CLIMATE.MISSOURI.EDU
MISSOURI DNR DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DNR.MO.GOV/ENV/WRC/DROUGHTUPDATE.HTM
ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.ISWS.ILLINOIS.EDU/ATMOS/STATECLI/
ILLINOIS WATER SURVEY DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.ISWS.ILLINOIS.EDU/HILITES/DROUGHT/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
ADDITIONAL WATER INFORMATION:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS): HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS: HTTP://WWW.NWO.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A WEEKLY COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
A NUMBER OF STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES INCLUDING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS....
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OF COMMENTS ABOUT THIS INFORMATION...
PLEASE CONTACT:
MARK BRITT
CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT
--OR--
MARK FUCHS
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
--OR--
JAYSON GOSSELIN
METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS
636-441-8467
W-LSX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
GOSSELIN/FUCHS
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