228  
FNUS73 KILX 122322  
FWSILX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDCAT HOLLOW STATE FOREST BURN 2017...ILLINOIS DNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
622 PM CDT WED APR 12 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0500 CDT ON APRIL 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (217) 732-4029 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT BUT RAIN AND  
STORM CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. THE  
FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE EFFINGHAM AREA, SO NO RAIN SHOULD  
AFFECT THE BURN LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL  
BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BECOMING S-SW AT 5 TO 12 MPH ON  
THURSDAY. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE POOR IN THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD  
IMPROVE TO AT LEAST FAIR AND CLOSE TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 5 AM  
SKY (%).........36  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0  
TEMP............50  
RH..............80  
20 FT WIND......SE 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6  
HAINES INDEX....4  
VRATE KT-FT/10000  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9  
TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-45900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
FAIR TO GOOD (26900-54700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........35 34 32 34 36 38  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............49 55 66 72 75 76  
RH..............83 72 58 51 50 50  
20 FT WIND......SE 2 S 5 S 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 800 2600 4200 5100 4600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5 S 9 SW 16 SW 14 SW 13 SW 12  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 4 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 6 35 51 55 47  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........34 33 34 39 42 45  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 0 0  
TEMP............74 69 64 61 59 58  
RH..............55 66 75 81 84 85  
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 3 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 BLW100 200 200 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10009 0 1 1 1 1  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4000 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
4900-5600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (100-40000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (41900-79200 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 20 20 20 40 40  
RH..............91 80 66 58 55 54  
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 400 1600 4000 5500 5100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 S 9 SW 16 SW 16 S 16 S 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 3 23 55 74 71  
 

 
FORECASTER...SHIMON  
REQUESTED BY...WADE BLOEMER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1706680.0/ILX  
.EMAIL WADE.BLOEMER@ILLINOIS.GOV  
 
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