477
FNUS73 KPAH 231433
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 19...DOD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
933 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 CDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE QUAD STATE REGION
LATER TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK...AND THURSDAY THE
DRIEST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 75.
RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2900-3900 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 29 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............64 66 69 72 73 73 74 73 72
RH..............63 61 57 54 54 53 52 53 56
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 25 25 20 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 29
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 63 PERCENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1600 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............69 62 57 54 50 49
RH..............60 76 92 100 100 100
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 W 6 NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 10
MIX HGT (FT)....3400 1300 300 700 1000 1400
TRANSPORT WIND..S 26 S 21 S 18 SW 18 W 15 NW 15
CWR.............0 0 0 60 60 60
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 2
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY
(20-30 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................77 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-5200 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....OCNL OCNL
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TEMP............49 52 53 54
RH..............94 69 65 59
20 FT WIND......NW 6G10 NW 7G15 NW 5G10 NW 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1900 3300 5200
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 20 NW 16 NW 16 NW 14
CWR.............80 80 0 0
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3
FORECASTER...PACKETT
REQUESTED BY...JOHN PAUL HART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130423.TA19_.01/PAH
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