023  
FXUS63 KILX 210924  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
324 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017  
 
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD EARLY THIS  
MORNING...WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACING IT ALONG THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, PRIMARILY IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG  
AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, BUT MAY NOT REACH THE  
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL MID-MORNING. THE FRONT WILL TEND TO  
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST, SO AM EXPECTING AREAL  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY, AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS  
WILL KEEP READINGS DOWN ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA. WITH CLEARING  
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, THINK  
WARMEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL OCCUR ALONG/WEST  
OF I-55. FURTHER EAST WHERE OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
60S. FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WASH OUT  
TONIGHT, ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT THE  
FAR SE WHERE PARTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. WITH CLEARING  
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN  
PLACE...THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD BECOME  
THICKEST/MOST WIDESPREAD WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE THE  
LEAST...GENERALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017  
 
FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY, RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 12-14C. AS  
A RESULT, AM EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 70S. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR. A  
DISTINCT NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON  
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH AROUND  
GALESBURG AND LACON...TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-70. MUCH OF THE  
DAY SHOULD BE DRY: HOWEVER, AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE  
ROCKIES, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES  
THURSDAY EVENING, THEN TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. MINOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE STILL PRESENT: HOWEVER,  
CONSENSUS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY  
18Z FRI. GIVEN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS EAST-  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WITH GFS INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES  
OF AROUND 1000J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL  
INCREASE TO 55-65KT AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. THINK STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-57 WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL  
QUICKLY SHIFT INTO INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND  
SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WRAP-AROUND  
MOISTURE WILL BRUSH THE N/NW CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER  
30S, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SOME MINOR  
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO DANVILLE LINE  
BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
COOL/MORE TYPICAL MID-FEBRUARY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE  
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY  
RISING INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY. THE RETURN TO NORMAL  
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO  
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THE WARMING  
TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME IT  
APPEARS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY  
MORNING BEFORE TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR ALL RAIN MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 20 2017  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF  
SHOWERS JUST OUT TO OUR WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE TAF  
SITES. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES  
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR  
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING  
ACROSS PIA AND SPI AND BY 20Z AT CMI. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS, AND  
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAKENING FRONT  
EDGES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND  
ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME  
PATCHY FOG LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
RECORD HIGHS / RECORD WARM LOWS - TUESDAY FEB 21ST...  
PEORIA........ 69 / 46  
LINCOLN....... 69 / 45  
SPRINGFIELD... 69 / 48  
CHAMPAIGN..... 67 / 47  
BLOOMINGTON... 69 / 46  
DECATUR....... 68 / 48  
DANVILLE...... 67 / 50  
GALESBURG..... 68 / 40  
CHARLESTON.... 71 / 52  
EFFINGHAM..... 73 / 52  
 
RECORD HIGHS / RECORD WARM LOWS - WEDNESDAY FEB 22ND...  
PEORIA........ 71 / 51  
LINCOLN....... 71 / 52  
SPRINGFIELD... 71 / 53  
CHAMPAIGN..... 69 / 49  
BLOOMINGTON... 70 / 53  
DECATUR....... 72 / 51  
DANVILLE...... 71 / 54  
GALESBURG..... 61 / 45  
CHARLESTON.... 71 / 52  
EFFINGHAM..... 74 / 55  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BARNES  
LONG TERM...BARNES  
AVIATION...SMITH  
CLIMATE...07  
 
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