901  
FXUS63 KILX 241740  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
MADE MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS  
HOLDING STRONG OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. CLOUDS  
ARE TRYING TO SCATTER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO NOBLE  
LINE, BUT DO NOT HAVE A TON OF FAITH IN CLOUDS CLEARING. TEMPS  
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS 25-30 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WONDER IF THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MIXING  
RESULTING IN LOWER GUSTS. LASTLY, PRELIMINARY THOUGHT ON PRECIP  
TONIGHT IS I'M NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE SET UP. SATURATION  
MAY BE AN ISSUE AT FIRST LIMITING HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY REACHES  
THE SURFACE. SEEING THIS TO THE WEST WHERE PRECIP IS ONLY BEING  
REPORTED UNDER THE MORE IMPRESSIVE RADAR RETURNS. BETTER FORCING  
WILL ALSO BE TO OUR NORTH. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR  
NORTH OF I-74 AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATING RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW OFF THE EAST COAST  
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MORNING TODAY...THEN THE DEVELOPING LOW FROM  
THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING SOUTHEAST WINDS  
TO INCREASE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WEST  
OF I-55, AND BY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE WINDS  
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING TO SW AROUND DAYBREAK  
TUESDAY AS THE LOW HEADS INTO THE NW CORNER OF ILLINOIS DRAGGING A  
COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE UP  
ONLY A FEW DEGREES AS EXTENSIVE MORNING STRATUS CLOUD COVER  
DISSIPATES FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER  
DAMPING OUT DIURNAL HEATING, WHILE ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS  
AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE BETTER  
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, CHANCE CATEGORY POPS TONIGHT  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF I-74 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHWARD TO AROUND I-72. LOWS SHOULD BE MILD  
AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND 40  
DEGREES...DIPPING PERHAPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT  
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-72/WEST OF I-55 WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
00Z FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM  
SOUTHEAST CO INTO EASTERN CENTRAL IA BY SUNRISE WED, INTO CENTRAL  
LAKE MI BY SUNSET WED AND INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PENINSULA BY  
SUNRISE THU AS IT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IF FAIRLY  
HIGH WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
STAY NW OF THE IL BY KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WED MORNING, THEN  
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE IL RIVER VALLEY TOWARD I-55 DURING WED  
MORNING, AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW IL LATE WED AFTERNOON AND  
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO IL WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED  
CONTRAST FROM LOWER 40S OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY, TO THE LOW TO  
MID 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-70.  
 
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT AS COLD  
FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL AND STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER IL AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOOD  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTHERN CWA EARLY WED EVENING, THEN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST IL, THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT  
CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST IL. COLDER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
TO GRADUALLY CHANGE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FROM NW  
TO SE DURING WED NIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.  
COOLER LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S FROM I-55 NW AND LOWER 30S  
SOUTHEAST OF I-55.  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN IN PLACE OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES  
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THU THRU THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SEASONABLE  
TEMPS, A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF  
FLURRIES. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST  
IL THU. HIGHS THU RANGE FROM 32F AT GALESBURG TO 38F AT  
LAWRENCEVILLE. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. HIGHS FRI NEAR  
30F FROM I-74 NORTH AND NEAR 35F FAR SOUTHEAST BY LAWRENCEVILLE.  
HIGHS SAT THRU MON MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, THEN IN THE MID 30S  
TO LOWER 40S ON TUE. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, BUT COLDEST  
NIGHT IS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER TEENS CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 20S FROM  
I-70 SOUTH. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL  
LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW NORTH OF CENTRAL  
IL, NORTH OF I-80.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING CLOUDS WILL  
REMAIN MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IF ANY LOCATION  
SCATTERS, IT WILL BE SPI, BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP THIS  
EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN GUSTING  
AROUND 20 KT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL GET THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT THE VCSH  
GOING AT PIA AND BMI. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS  
BECOME SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE  
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW  
QUICKLY CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY SO STAYED ON THE PESSIMISTIC  
SIDE WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JEE  
SHORT TERM...37  
LONG TERM...07  
AVIATION...JEE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IL Page Main Text Page