989  
FXUS63 KILX 051119  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
519 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015  
 
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS YESTERDAY  
AND LAST EVENING WAS FINALLY STARTING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM OUR  
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR  
AREA TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER  
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE TEENS OVER MOST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW WHERE IT SHOULD BE  
FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH. AS THE LARGE FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM DRIFTS  
CLOSER TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY, THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE  
AS GUSTY AS WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THIS MORNING, THAT WILL  
BE A DIFFERENT STORY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH  
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO DROP WIND CHILLS  
DOWN TO BETWEEN -10 TO -15 MAINLY NORTH OF I-74 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY  
THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015  
 
PRETTY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NO PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC UPPER  
WAVES WILL ZIP THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM, BUT  
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE MEAGER AND LITTLE MORE THAN WIND SHIFTS ARE  
EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL  
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN INTO MID WEEK.  
 
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE WELCOME TREND TOWARD MILDER WEATHER.  
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEW MEXICO EVIDENT ON  
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST  
LATER TODAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT,  
BUT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS EVENING, WITH STEADY OR  
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AFTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO ARE ON  
TAP, AS LOW AS 10 BELOW IN AREAS FROM BLOOMINGTON TO DANVILLE. AFTER  
THAT, NICE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GET MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE  
TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 50S BY  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY  
BRINGING A LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE A BAND OF CIRRUS STREAMING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT THE LATEST HRRR FORECASTS  
INDICATE THOSE SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BY MID-MORNING. SURFACE WINDS  
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 15 KTS AND THEN BECOME  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...GEELHART  
AVIATION...SMITH  
 
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