482  
FXUS63 KILX 241046  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
546 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET FOR THIS ROUND. MILD THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AND PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING OFF FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL  
LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS LEFT FAR MILDER AIR BEHIND HERE IN THE  
MIDWEST HAS PROGRESSED TO ROUGHLY THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING.  
HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH THE RIDGE  
ORIENTED MORE NW/SE OVER THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WINDS ON THIS  
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL  
CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATER  
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SFC, THE WINDS  
PICK UP A FEW KNOTS...SO INCLUDING GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS FOR THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND DRY. A QUICK WAVE  
RIPPLING INTO THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS AND TO AN  
EXTENT THE MOST RECENT ECMWF KEEPING PRECIP TO THE NORTH...BUT  
THE GFS HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  
FORECAST SLOWLY WARMS A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, HOWEVER, LATE  
TUESDAY, AS THE WAVE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, THE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE  
SHIFTS TO THE EAST...OPENING UP THE REGION TO THE DEEP WARM AIR  
OVER THE DESERT SW. 850 MB TEMPS WARM FROM 8-10C ON TUESDAY  
NIGHT...TO 17-18C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THE  
SURFACE CLIMB A GOOD 7 TO 9F ON WEDNESDAY AND STAY WARM THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO LOOK MORE ZONAL AGAIN,  
AND TEMPS AND RH CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
IN A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. TIMING AND DEPTH OF WAVE THAT  
BRINGS POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AND THE  
FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY AND  
GUSTY WITH VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT WINDS IN A FEW  
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE BACKING TO SW BTWN 05-08Z...BUT SOME  
MODELS NOT AS PRONOUNCED NOR DOES IT LAST TOO LONG. FOR NOW, HAVE  
LEFT IT OUT. WILL SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS MAKE OF IT. WEST/NORTHWEST  
WINDS AND VFR WITH CIRRUS. GUSTS TO 20KTS OR SO DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HJS  
LONG TERM...HJS  
AVIATION...HJS  
 
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