617  
FXUS63 KILX 181533  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING WILL BRING  
ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON TO OUR AREA. LATEST DEW POINTS  
WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES AND WE  
REALLY WON'T SEE MUCH OF A JUMP IN THOSE UNTIL THE SURFACE  
HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY  
ON THURSDAY. ALREADY SEEING LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS ACROSS  
PARTS OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH CONVECTION  
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER DEW  
POINT AIR FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL  
MISSOURI.  
 
WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST LATER TODAY  
AND TONIGHT EDGE EAST TOWARDS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAWN ON  
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. THE CURRENT  
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND  
THIS EVENING WITH VERY FEW CHANGES REQUIRED IN THE GRIDS. AS A  
RESULT, NO LATE MORNING ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN  
DAKOTAS WILL BE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY  
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 10,000 FEET,  
THOUGH THE EXTREME WEST WILL BE MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN  
LATE. AS SUCH, WILL ONLY MENTION SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S FROM  
ABOUT JACKSONVILLE-GALESBURG.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY NICE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAINLY  
80-85 THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS NUDGING 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH  
TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE LATEST MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION  
OF THIS UPPER WAVE, CLOSING OFF A LOW WHICH WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE  
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE WEEKEND, THIS LOW WILL SINK  
SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST, ONLY SLOWLY PUSHING EAST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LARGELY KEEP TEMPERATURES  
UNDER CONTROL, WITH ANY OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY STAYING WELL  
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
LATEST SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK NUDGES THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO OUR  
FAR NORTHWEST CWA. A LITTLE MORE DECENT SHEAR AVAILABLE THAN  
SEVERAL OF OUR RECENT THUNDERSTORM EPISODES, MAINLY 35-40 KNOTS OF  
BULK SHEAR FROM 0-6KM. BULK OF THIS THREAT WOULD BE VERY LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE  
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAY3 OUTLOOK INCLUDED  
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ABOUT TAYLORVILLE-DANVILLE  
SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONGER MID  
LEVEL JET ACROSS MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. GFS  
SOUNDINGS FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SHOW BULK SHEAR UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS  
BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON, AND 50-60 KNOTS EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING  
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  
 
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WEAK  
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WOULD  
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. CLOUD COVER  
WILL BE MINIMAL, AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SMITH  
SHORT TERM...GEELHART  
LONG TERM...GEELHART  
AVIATION...BAK  
 
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