763  
FXUS63 KILX 211142  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
 
QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST  
ILLINOIS TODAY AS UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA. MAIN  
FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER MAY  
STILL IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE MOST  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING MEAN UPPER WAVE/GENERAL  
CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE MORE SHORT WAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
DIVING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, A FEATURE  
THAT IS HELPING TO SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NORTH AND  
JUST EAST OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS  
THAT THIS WAVE WILL NOT DIG TOO MUCH AND THAT IT SHOULD NOT RESULT  
IN THE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA THAN THEY  
ALREADY ARE. AT THIS POINT, ONLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF  
FORECAST AREA HAS CLOUD COVER, AND THIS IS WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO  
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE  
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND FULL  
SUN (IN MOST AREAS) SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.  
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
INTO THE PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS ILLINOIS  
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS EVENING'S MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNIFORM  
IN SPREADING SHOWERS FURTHER EAST THAN BEFORE, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS  
MID MORNING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. HAVE INTRODUCED 30-40%  
POP'S ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN  
MODELS DO BRING THE PRECIPITATION NEARLY TO THE INDIANA BORDER BY  
LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA REMAIN  
RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN  
EYE ON THIS THOUGH. HAVE LINGERED THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BUT RAPID DRYING  
FROM THE TOP DOWN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE RAIN AS THE WAVE MOVES  
AWAY.  
 
AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN STORY WILL  
BE WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO  
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES  
PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 17C BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH TO GET HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND AND  
INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014  
 
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE  
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 12Z  
TAF VALID TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS. THIS QUIET  
WEATHER WILL BE COURTESY OF A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE  
HIGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT SIDE, FROM A  
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND TRENDING MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAK  
LONG TERM...GEELHART  
AVIATION...BAK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IL Page Main Text Page