010  
FXUS63 KILX 311115  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
615 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014  
VERY LITTLE CHANGING IN THIS FORECAST. DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN  
CANADA KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DOMINATED BY THE  
500MB TROF. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE  
MIDWEST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDING UP SOME WARM AIR THAT WILL  
START TO EDGE TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. DIURNAL ELEMENT TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY  
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND A SERIES OF WAVES DIVING  
INTO AND AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WATCHING  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROWS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AND  
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. FORECAST DRYING OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF  
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ON THE  
WESTERN COAST, KICKING THE EASTERN TROF OUT OF THE STAGNANT  
PATTERN. A MORE PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF WAVES BEGINS TO DRIVE BETTER  
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...  
MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, JUST BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS.  
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER CLOUDS TO  
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY PROVIDING A SPARSE SHOWER. TOMORROW,  
CHANCES IMPROVE WITH A WAVE DIVING INTO THE TROF AND ENHANCING THE  
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. WIND PROFILES VERY WEAK, BUT LOWER FREEZING  
LEVEL AND PRETTY GOOD LAPSE RATES TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD RESULT  
IN SOME GOOD UPDRAFTS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SPC HAS PUT  
THE AREA IN A SEE TEXT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE DAYTIME  
HEATING/SHORTWAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEND ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE TROF FOR SATURDAY,  
WITH ALMOST A REPEAT OF FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  
BEGINNING TO TREND THE FORECAST TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AS WELL SHOULD THE SIGNAL CONTINUE.  
THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COUNTERED BY  
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINATING REMAINS OF WEEKEND AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES  
INTO THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND DRY FORECAST  
AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PROGRESS ACROSS INTO THE NE.  
CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STARTING TO RETURN TUES/WED  
AS A MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  
 
HJS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 615 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIRLY  
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A LARGE SCALE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER  
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY, THIN, AND SHALLOW FOG TO  
FORM AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DAYTIME  
HEATING BEGINS. LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNTIL  
13-14Z. BY AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CLOUD  
COVER AT AROUND 5 KFT MSL WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY KPRG-  
KC75 NORTHWARD. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT  
WILL BE TOO LOW PROBABILITY FOR MENTION IN AREA TAFS. AFTER  
00Z...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING. WINDS  
INCREASING TO W5-8 KTS BY 15Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY  
00Z.  
 
ONTON  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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