097  
FXUS63 KILX 300143  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
843 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY  
THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE ROTATING  
WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND TRACKING  
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONE SUCH FEATURE WAS  
SEEN OVER EASTERN INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO  
AFFECT PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER  
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER  
OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER  
LOW FINALLY GETTING NUDGED TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT  
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRENDS  
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES  
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, NO ZFP UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
PESKY UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND IS PROGGED TO WOBBLE ALONG THE INDIANA/KENTUCKY BORDER THROUGH  
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW  
INTO OUR AREA, AND WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED  
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EDGE OF  
THE 500 MB COLD POOL EDGING BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AS THE LOW  
DRIFTS NORTHWEST. WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER  
60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
A 562 MB 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY IS  
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY WNW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY  
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A  
DEEP UPPER LOW CARVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. UNTIL THE MIDWEST LOW  
DRIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO CENTRAL IL.  
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE WEAK AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY  
DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING INDICATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING...BUT  
PREDOMINANTLY THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S  
SATURDAY STEADILY INCREASING TO UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY.  
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO ARRIVE THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
BEGIN TO COOL AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED THURSDAY.  
LOWS WON'T CHANGE AS NOTICEABLY WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING BETTER  
NIGHTTIME COOLING DESPITE A WARMING AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY  
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BRING  
MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS  
ROTATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO HOLD  
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING MVFR TO LOCAL IFR  
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING, WITH LOCATIONS SEEING THE BRIEF SHOWERS LOWERING TO IFR  
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. SURFACE  
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SMITH  
SHORT TERM...GEELHART  
LONG TERM...ONTON  
AVIATION...SMITH  
 
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