724
FXUS63 KLSX 091838
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1238 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
/247 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWESTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z AND
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE FRONT...BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
FRONT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE POST FRONTAL...SO FEEL THAT MOST OF
AREA TO BE DRY TODAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...IT WILL DEPEND
ON THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE
WITH MID 60S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
BY TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE THROUGH AREA BEHIND
COLD FRONT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT
OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH IT.
BEYOND TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH.
BYRD
AVIATION
/1133 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VAR INVOF WEAKENING FNTL
BDRY BEFORE TURNING N TO NELY AFTER FROPA. CDFNT WILL SLOWLY
SINK SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A PD OF MVFR CIGS.
MAINTAINED GOING MENTION OF LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW IN MEAGER -SHRA CHCS TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
KANOFSKY
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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