724
FXUS63 KLSX 160902
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
402 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
DISCUSSION
/401 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008/
THE SHRTWV TROF LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PRODUCED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS
NEBRASKA 4-5 HOURS AGO. VERY LITTLE REMAINS OTHER THAN THE MID
CLOUD DECK. THIS TROF WILL MIGRATE SEWD TODAY AND ULTIMATELY
ESTABLISH A NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY PCPN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE CWA FROM DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ADDED SOME SLGT CHANCES WITH THE SPRINKLES
STILL BORDERING THIS AREA TO THE SOUTH.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROFS ARE FCST TO PERIODICALLY CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE MODELS AND THEIR QPF YOU COULD MAKE ARGUMENTS THAT
THERE CUD BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF PCPN JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD
FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE OVERKILL. ATTM IT SEEMS
THE BEST COURSE IS TRY TO PIN DOWN THE AREA WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITY THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A DECENT WAVE ON SAT AND
ENUF INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS INTO THE LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO
SW IL.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GLASS
AVIATION
/1125 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THE MID LVL CLOUDINESS IN STL AND SUS SHOULD
ADVCT SE OF THESE TAF SITES BY 06Z FRI AS A SFC RDG EXTDG FM SRN WI
SW THRU NERN OK CONTS TO BLD SWD THRU THE TAF SITES. SFC WNDS WL
BE LGT ALONG THE SFC RDG AXIS AS IT SHIFTS SWD THRU THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH THE LWR SFC DWPTS ACRS NRN MO WILL CONT ADVCTG SEWD THRU
CNTRL MO LT TGT...WITH A CLR SKY...LGT SFC WND...RECENT RAINFALL
AND LTL DAYTIME HTG AND MIXING OF THE BNDRY LYR WILL CONT WITH A
FCST OF FOG IN COU...STL...AND SUS LT TGT AND EARLY FRI MRNG. THIS
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER 13Z FRI WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MAY
HAVE SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DVLP BY LT FRI MRNG.
GKS
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
WFO LSX
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