769  
FXUS63 KPAH 240530  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1130 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IN MANY  
AREAS, AS WRAP AROUND STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BLANKETED AREAS EAST OF  
THE MS RIVER MOST OF THE DAY THUS FAR. FORECAST MODELS DO SHOW A  
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER  
OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THAT SYSTEM  
SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
STILL OFF TO OUR WEST, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET OUT OF THE 40S  
THOUGH.  
 
A WARM UP SHOULD GET MORE UNDERWAY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY  
ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST  
READINGS BACK INTO THE 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND  
THEN SLIPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS TO  
SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  
BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING THOUGH, SO NO  
THUNDER MENTIONED AT THIS TIME, AND RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
TO BE EXCESSIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW  
THINGS TO DRY OUT SUNDAY-TUE, AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER  
TO NORMAL AGAIN. THE SLOWER CANADIAN SOLUTION ON EXIT OF PRECIP  
SUNDAY WAS DISMISSED WITH THIS PACKAGE, AS IT SEEMS AS AN OUT-  
LIER, AND WE PREVIOUSLY ALREADY HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THAT  
TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL MIX DOWN AT ALL SITES  
WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. THE  
LARGE MASS OF MVFR AND LOWER VFR CEILINGS HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST  
OF KCGI AND WILL MOVE OUT OF KPAH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE  
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIDDAY CLEARING AT KEVV AND KOWB, BUT  
THAT MAY BE A BIT SLOW BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DRS  
SHORT TERM...GM  
LONG TERM...GM  
AVIATION...DRS  
 
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