913
FXUS63 KPAH 042027 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
ONGOING SVR RISK CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SFC WARM FRONT HAS DRAPED ITSELF RIGHT ALONG THE MS RVR DOWN INTO
THE PAH AREA. SFC BASED CAPES RUNNING 1500-2500 WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY INTO SE MO. LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE OH RVR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRAVERSE WRN KY/FAR SE
MO THUS EVENING. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL...BUT ANY CELL THAT TRY TO DEVIATE FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND
TRAVERSE THE WARM FRONT (IE MOVE SE AS OPPOSED TO E) COULD SPIN UP
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MS/OH
RIVER CONFLUENCE AREA BY SUNSET. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ESE
OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH IT.
WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS SFC LOW/COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. COULD BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NO
MAJOR CONCERN. CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
NUMERICAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MON/TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH
TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL...ESP AT NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH OUT
OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO DAY TIME
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
THU/FRI. WITH THE MID RIDGE IN CONTROL...WILL LIKELY SEE THERMAL
CAPPING ALOFT AND LITTLE OVERALL MOISTURE. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK NIL THROUGH FRI.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE MID
LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SAT...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST
IN WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER KY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF
AT KEVV/KOWB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT KPAH/KCGI...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISLD...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING HRS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER TSRA...WITH POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. AFTER
THE CONVECTION...COULD SEE SOME -RA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AFTER WHICH
CIGS COULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO BLO 1000 FT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEFFERT
AVIATION...CW
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