551
FXUS63 KPAH 160802
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
DISCUSSION
MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA...AND WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO SUNSHINE EARLY
TODAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND BY AFTERNOON OVER SW IN AND THE
PENNYRILE OF WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID MAY.
AFTER A DRY AND COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...00Z NAM/GFS STILL TRY TO
DEVELOP SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN H50 NW
FLOW REGIME. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT WILL GO WITH CHC
RAIN SHOWERS IN SW IN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NW KY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHC MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. TYPICALLY...OUR
NE COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHC OF GETTING SHOWERS FROM THIS TYPE OF
NW FLOW REGIME. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH...LESS
THAN 1/10 INCH FOR THE MOST PART. H50 SHORT WAVE SHOULD DROP SE OF
THE REGION BY LATER SAT EVENING...SO WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. DECIDED NOT TO
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DO SEEM
TO AGREE ON WEAK H50 RIDGING BY MID WEEK AS NW FLOW PATTERN FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN...SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THAT TIME FRAME. THAT WOULD
ALSO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME TO SEE TEMPS AMKE IT BACK INTO
THE 80S MOST AREAS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MAV/MEX MOS
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...AT OR ABOVE 4K FEET BY 12Z. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS BETWEEN
05Z AND 07Z. THE TIMING OF CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED...ESPECIALLY AT
KEVV. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE PLAINS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
.DISCUSSION..MEFFERT
AVIATION
MY
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