099
FXUS63 KPAH 232105
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
DISCUSSION
GRUNDGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ALL
GUIDANCE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH T/TDS TODAY...GENERALLY WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE OR NEAR MILDER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT...MOST MODELS DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER IN HOW FAR EAST THE BAND WILL THRIVE
INTO OUR AREA. THE ECMWF WHICH IS FAVORED...LIFTS THE SHOWERS
NORTHEAST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH ONLY MEAGER QPF OVER WEST KENTUCKY. THE NAM
IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME...BRINGING A NICE BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN TIMING...WITH
THE SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE LATE MORNING...AND
EXITING THE EAST/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING.
CANNOT SEE ANY SUPPORT FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT POP...SO REMOVED
THEM. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY...BUT
WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN SHOWERS. FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD AIR IS THERE ALOFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS NO COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THIS
STORM SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLAKE
OR TWO IN THE EVANSVILLE AREA...BUT CHANCE IS TOO MEAGER TO MENTION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. IN THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS VARY BEYOND MONDAY...BUT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
BEEN PROMINENT IN SEVERAL RUNS. THIS LOW IN SOME RUNS IS RATHER DEEP
AND COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INCLUDING OUR AREA...TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KCGI
AND KPAH. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THAT AT THIS TIME.
COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT CLEARING OR
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WORSE FOG CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DRS
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