298  
FXUS63 KPAH 250821  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
321 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017  
 
DEVELOPING/APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS PASSAGE, WIND SHIFT,  
TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER/DRIER AIR LAGS SOME, WITH WEDNESDAY  
TRANSITIONING THRU THE 80S/60S, AND SMALLISH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH  
MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN CATA-FRONTIC ENVIRON WED PM.  
 
PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S PASSAGE, WE REMAIN IN THE UBER HEAT/HUMIDITY  
AIRMASS, LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE PREDOMINANT OHIO RIVER VALLEY  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE  
GULF COASTAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTERPLAYS AND MUDDIES  
THE FIRMNESS OF THE HIGH'S FAR SIDE GRIP, PARTICULARLY THIS PM,  
WITH SOME OF THE SHORT RES MODELING SUGGESTING ISOLATED  
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. EVEN SO, THERE APPEARS TO BE NO  
COLLABORATIVE CONSENSUS TO ADD A POP AT THIS WRITING, SO WE'LL  
RETAIN SILENT POPS AND BRIEF THE COMING SHIFT FOR A 17-23Z  
ISOLATED POTENTIAL POP.  
 
WE STILL LIKE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY, SIMILAR  
TO PAST DAYS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 60S TO  
START OUT THE WEEK. THESE WILL TRANSITION TO 80S/60S WED, AS  
MENTIONED, AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AT MID WEEK WILL  
SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL  
PUT OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL READINGS BY THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. READINGS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50  
DEGREES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON SEP 25 2017  
 
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL AGAIN BE A POTENTIAL OFFERING FOR FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. DIURNALLY DRIVE CU BASES WILL DEVELOP IN  
THE 4-6K FT AGL RANGE. SHORT RES MODELING SUGGESTS THESE MAY  
BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES DURING THE PM HOURS/WITH ISOLATED  
SHOWERS/STORMS, HOWEVER THE POP IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS  
WRITING. A RETURN TO BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL COME AS THE DAYTIME  
FUEL IS LOST DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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