815  
FXUS63 KPAH 291832  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
132 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
ENHANCE CU FIELD SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WEAK  
SURFACE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY. NO PRECIPITATION ALONG IT  
YET, BUT CAMS ARE POINTING TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWER AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SHOULD ENTER  
INTO THE CWA AROUND 6PM AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.  
MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE NORTHEAST OF A CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO  
CADIZ KENTUCKY LINE.  
 
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA  
DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN RETURNING MOISTURE MAY  
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST. THE  
MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED UP IN RESPONSE TO A 90 KT JET STREAK  
ROTATION AROUND THE BASE OF A TROUGH WHICH REMAINS OVER THE  
MIDWEST. THESE DYNAMICS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE  
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE  
PULLS IN DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN / CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BENEATH A RIDGE EXTENDING  
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS AND SASKATCHEWAN. REMNANT ENERGY FROM THIS  
WEAK MID LEVEL FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO TRAVEL EAST  
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF WARM SECTOR  
CONVECTION, AS A SURFACE FRONT STAYS TO OUR NORTH. THE 00Z EC AND  
12Z GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS, THUS WE  
FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD WITH SOME ENSEMBLE INCORPORATION. BY 12Z SUNDAY,  
AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NE U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING VORTEX  
OVER NEW ENGLAND, A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, POSSIBLY BRINGING AN END TO  
OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. SO OVERALL,  
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED. COULD BE A COUPLE OF STRONG  
STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, EARLY EVENING. OVERALL PARAMETERS  
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. A BLEND OF EC/GFS MOS WAS USED  
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
MAINLY CIRRUS TODAY WITH SOME SCT050 CU AT KEVV AND KOWB. LIGHT  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KEVV OR KOWB BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH  
BEST CHANCE AT KEVV.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PS  
LONG TERM...CN  
AVIATION...PS  
 
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