708
AXUS73 KLOT 170246
DGTLOT
ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-INC007-073-089-111-127-010300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
846 PM CST FRI NOV 16 2012 /946 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2012/
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...
SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DUE TO LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR. ACCORDING
TO THE NOVEMBER 13TH ISSUANCE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR:
* SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ -- IN ILLINOIS...WINNEBAGO...BOONE...
OGLE...MOST OF LEE...MCHENRY...NORTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN HALF OF
DEKALB...FAR NORTHWESTERN KANE.
* MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ -- IN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY (D0)...FAR NORTHWESTERN
COOK...KANE...NORTHERN LA SALLE...FAR SOUTHEAST LEE...SOUTHERN
HALF OF DEKALB.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
* STATE/LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS -- NO ACTIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED.
* SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS -- THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN
APPROXIMATELY THE TOP 5 FEET OF SOIL AS OF SEPTEMBER 6TH RANGED
FROM A HIGH OF ROUGHLY 3 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO APPROXIMATELY 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN NORTHWEST INDIANA TO NEAR NORMAL IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
IN TERMS OF TOTAL SOIL MOISTURE STORAGE PERCENTILES COMPARED TO
NORMAL...THE LARGEST DEFICITS IN THE AREA ARE IN NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TOTAL SOIL MOISTURE
STORAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF FARM
FIELDS IN NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE CONSIDERED TO
HAVE ADEQUATE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...WITH NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF FARM
FIELDS IN INDIANA CONSIDERED TO HAVE ADEQUATE TOPSOIL MOISTURE.
* AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS -- ACCORDING TO THE NOVEMBER 13TH SUMMARY
FROM THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...WINTER WHEAT
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS GENERALLY IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
CONDITION.
FARMERS AND FARM BUREAUS ACROSS THE AREA REPORTED PRIMARILY POOR
CORN YIELDS...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY FROM
FIELD TO FIELD. A STUDY IN ILLINOIS FOUND THAT IN ABSOLUTE
BUSHELS PER ACRE...THE EXPECTED CORN YIELD LOSS IS PROJECTED TO
BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE DEVASTATING 1988 DROUGHT...THOUGH THE
RELATIVE PERCENTAGE LOSS OF THE EXPECTED YIELD WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN THE 1988 DROUGHT BECAUSE OF THE FASTER
GROWING...HIGHER YIELDING HYBRID CORN GROWN TODAY. THERE WERE
BETTER THAN EXPECTED SOYBEAN YIELDS ON MANY FARMS DUE TO THE
MORE FREQUENT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE SUMMER.
A REPORT IN THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE FOUND THAT IN CHRISTMAS TREE
GROVES...MANY OF THE YOUNGER TREES...PLANTED IN 2011 AND
2012...WERE KILLED BY THE LACK OF RAIN AND THE WEEKS OF INTENSE
HEAT IN THE SUMMER.
* FIRE IMPACTS -- OVERALL FIRE DANGER IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT RESIDENTS ARE STILL URGED TO CONSULT LOCAL
AUTHORITIES BEFORE BURNING...AS WELL AS BEING CAUTIOUS WITH FARM
EQUIPMENT...CIGARETTES...MATCHES AND OTHER OPEN FLAMES OR
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE SPARKS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
NORTHERN AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE
DRY CONDITIONS THIS AUTUMN SEASON. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATES HAVE EXPERIENCED NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR
CONTINUE TO RUN BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. THE LARGEST ANNUAL DEFICITS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...WHERE
ANNUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND A FOOT BELOW AVERAGE.
HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL STATISTICS THROUGH NOVEMBER 14TH FOR
SELECTED CITIES SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECORDED AND
THE PERCENT OF NORMAL.
LOCATION YEARLY PCPN SUMMER PCPN FALL PCPN
JAN-NOV 14 2012 JUN - AUG 2012 SEP - NOV 14
2012
TOTAL PCT TOTAL PCT TOTAL PCT
======== ============== ============= ==============
CHICAGO-OHARE 24.42 / (74%) 6.63 / (55%) 5.58 / (73%)
ROCKFORD 20.86 / (64%) 5.72 / (43%) 4.76 / (66%)
ROMEOVILLE 28.38 / (79%) 10.02 / (76%) 5.99 / (75%)
VALPARAISO 5NNE 28.38 / (78%) 12.24 / (90%) 6.02 / (72%)
PONTIAC 24.44 / (75%) 6.76 / (59%) 9.19 / (121%)
KANKAKEE 30.92 / (89%) 11.92 / (99%) 9.84 / (125%)
PAW PAW 2NW 20.45 / (62%) 7.46 / (60%) 5.26 / (69%)
PAXTON 2WSW 25.55 / (76%) 7.43 / (63%) 9.20 / (118%)
RENSSELAER 30.35 / (87%) 11.07 / (92%) 9.15 / (114%)
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THROUGH FRIDAY NOVEMBER
23RD...CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD RAINFALL EVENT
FOR THE AREA...AS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 24TH THROUGH
NOVEMBER 30TH...CALLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.
THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED NOVEMBER 15TH AND VALID
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY...CALLS FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH A PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SLOWLY
DECLINE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE INDICATES STREAMFLOW IN CUBIC FEET/SECOND
(CFS) FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM MEDIAN AS
OF NOV 16 AS REPORTED BY THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
LOCATION STREAMFLOW MEDIAN
(CFS) (CFS)
============== ============ ============
DES PLAINES R
GURNEE IL 24 94
FOX RIVER
MONTGOMERY IL 673 947
DAYTON IL 918 1200
IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE IL 235 393
KANKAKEE RIVER
SHELBY IN 664 1140
WILMINGTON IL 1420 2290
ILLINOIS RIVER
MARSEILLES IL 996 6889
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND IL 932 1010
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON IL 2620 3050
BYRON IL 2300 5340
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC IL 20 50
LEONORE IL 71 183
AT THE END OF OCTOBER...SHALLOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS WERE REPORTED NEAR NORMAL TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL
COMPARED TO A 15 YEAR AVERAGE.
USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN WESTERN LEE COUNTY AS OF NOVEMBER 15TH
WERE BELOW THE LOWEST NOVEMBER MEDIAN. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT
THESE WELLS SINCE 1992.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IN DECEMBER...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU...
ILLINOIS DROUGHT RESPONSE TASK FORCE...
DROUGHT.ILLINOIS.GOV
ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
HTTP://WWW.ISWS.ILLINOIS.EDU/ATMOS/STATECLI
ILLINOIS DROUGHT INFORMATION....
HTTP://WWW.ISWS.ILLINOIS.EDU/HILITES/DROUGHT
INDIANA DROUGHT INFORMATION...
DROUGHT.IN.GOV
INDIANA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...
HTTPS://CLIMATE.AGRY.PURDUE.EDU/CLIMATE
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
GROUNDWATER INFORMATION...
GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
333 W UNIVERSITY DRIVE
ROMEOVILLE IL 60446
PHONE...815-834-0600
LOT.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
RC/KB/WDM/CM/ACS/WEN
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