874
FGUS73 KLMK 141612
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-150000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, CENTRAL KENTUCKY, AND THE
OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON, INDIANA TO TELL CITY, INDIANA.
THE FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH MAY 2024.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 10 11 5 8 <5 <5
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 24 25 13 13 <5 <5
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BURKESVILLE 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 15 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 33 29 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 30 33 20 21 13 14
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 9 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
MAMMOTH CAVE 32.0 57.0 62.0 : <5 55 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROCHESTER 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 54 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 60 59 7 13 <5 <5
:KENTUCKY RIVER
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 17 22 7 16 <5 11
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 8 6 <5 <5 <5
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 14 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 9 10 6 <5 <5 <5
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 18 20 6 6 <5 <5
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 40 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CANNELTON LOCK AN 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 19 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 11 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 15 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 42 49 <5 7 <5 <5
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 25 35 6 10 <5 7
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 36 29 17 14 <5 5
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 14 17 8 11 6 8
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 11.9 12.5 14.6 21.8 24.5 28.1 32.3
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 6.0 6.5 8.1 10.0 19.7 24.9 26.0
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BURKESVILLE 31.3 32.9 35.8 39.8 44.2 46.8 48.5
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 8.8 10.1 12.1 20.5 25.5 29.5 30.6
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 5.0 5.7 6.6 7.5 10.6 15.0 16.5
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 9.9 10.7 13.1 15.3 19.3 26.6 35.0
MAMMOTH CAVE 19.1 20.2 22.9 25.8 30.8 36.8 40.5
ROCHESTER 33.4 34.3 35.7 37.2 39.7 42.0 44.8
WOODBURY 15.8 19.4 23.4 27.7 31.0 36.3 38.9
:KENTUCKY RIVER
CAMP NELSON LOCK 18.8 20.0 22.2 25.3 27.9 32.0 39.3
FRANKFORT LOCK 12.0 12.3 13.4 17.8 21.7 27.7 36.4
FORD LOCK 16.0 17.3 18.9 21.4 23.7 26.7 32.1
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 15.9 16.8 18.0 21.0 23.6 27.8 37.5
LOCKPORT LOCK 15.7 16.6 18.3 25.1 27.5 39.9 43.8
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 15.2 15.9 18.2 23.0 28.3 31.9 33.5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 8.6 9.3 12.6 19.0 23.6 27.3 27.7
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 429.6 432.0 436.1 440.7 444.1 448.2 449.9
CANNELTON LOCK AN 24.9 28.0 33.6 37.9 41.2 43.3 43.6
MCALPINE LOWER 31.4 34.9 41.2 47.1 50.7 55.4 57.2
MCALPINE UPPER 12.7 13.5 16.5 18.0 20.5 24.4 26.2
TELL CITY 23.9 26.9 32.5 36.7 40.6 42.7 43.0
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 16.0 18.7 22.5 27.2 35.0 37.9 42.8
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 16.6 17.3 19.2 22.4 27.0 28.8 29.5
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 5.2 6.0 7.3 10.2 18.2 25.2 26.2
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 7.5 8.5 9.5 12.6 16.4 21.2 23.4
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 8.8 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0
:BLUE RIVER
FREDERICKSBURG 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7
:CUMBERLAND RIVER
BURKESVILLE 31.1 29.9 29.2 27.9 27.4 24.8 24.3
:DRAKES CREEK
ALVATON 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1
:ELKHORN CREEK
PEAKS MILL 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0
:GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9
MAMMOTH CAVE 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.2
ROCHESTER 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1
WOODBURY 7.4 6.8 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.4
:KENTUCKY RIVER
CAMP NELSON LOCK 12.9 12.7 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.5
FRANKFORT LOCK 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8
FORD LOCK 10.9 10.8 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.7
LOCKPORT LOCK 9.7 9.5 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.3
:LICKING RIVER
BLUE LICKS SPRING 10.1 7.9 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.4
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6
:OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 422.2 422.1 421.7 421.3 421.1 421.0 420.9
CANNELTON LOCK AN 14.4 14.0 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.3 11.2
MCALPINE LOWER 15.7 15.4 13.7 12.5 11.8 11.4 11.2
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
TELL CITY 15.3 15.1 14.2 13.6 12.9 12.7 12.5
:ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3
:ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 7.7 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6
:SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER
CYNTHIANA 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
SINCE MID DECEMBER, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. AS
OF MID MARCH, SOIL MOISTURE WAS BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR
NORMAL OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. RESERVOIR LEVELS
WERE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ONE MAIN WEATHER
SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH
TO TWO INCHES.
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH GOES OUT THROUGH MARCH 27 CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR, NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND A QUARTER TO ONE INCH.
THE OUTLOOK FOR LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH
ARE IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN A QUARTER
TO ONE INCH.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES GOOD
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV.
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR SPRING 2024.
AMS
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