680  
FGUS73 KLMK 071606  
ESFLMK  
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-  
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-  
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-  
213-215-217-223-229-239-211200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
1105 AM EST THU DEC 07 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 12/12/2017 - 03/12/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 20 18 11 9 <5 <5  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 30 27 9 9 <5 <5  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 42 40 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 45 46 25 24 13 10  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 23 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ROCHESTER 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 80 79 10 9 <5 <5  
WOODBURY 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 83 >95 15 40 7 22  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 28 24 10 17 6 13  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 10 9 6 6 <5 <5  
FORD LOCK 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 19 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 13 6 6 <5 <5  
LOCKPORT LOCK 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 26 24 9 9 6 6  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 35 31 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 19 14 8 7 <5 <5  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CANNELTON LOCK 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 36 34 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MCALPINE LOWER 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 26 29 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MCALPINE UPPER 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 32 35 6 6 <5 <5  
TELL CITY 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 57 55 11 11 <5 <5  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 69 58 19 17 11 8  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 53 42 27 22 10 8  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 22 19 16 14 13 11  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 12/12/2017 - 03/12/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 14.5 15.5 18.3 22.6 26.1 32.3 35.5  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 7.7 8.1 9.7 14.9 21.2 23.8 25.9  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 12.3 14.0 16.0 22.2 27.5 31.4 32.2  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 6.3 7.1 7.6 9.5 11.9 14.5 16.5  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 11.1 13.4 16.2 21.2 26.6 38.1 45.8  
ROCHESTER 14.3 15.7 17.7 19.1 21.3 24.8 27.1  
WOODBURY 20.1 23.7 28.3 30.7 34.7 39.5 42.2  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 19.7 20.3 22.0 24.9 30.7 35.5 41.4  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 12.5 12.9 15.0 19.3 24.3 31.1 35.7  
FORD LOCK 16.6 17.2 18.6 20.7 24.6 28.3 31.3  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 17.2 17.8 19.5 21.3 26.0 32.2 36.9  
LOCKPORT LOCK 16.8 17.3 22.0 27.6 33.2 41.3 51.0  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 12.5 14.1 18.4 21.3 27.4 33.1 37.8  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 11.0 12.0 18.6 22.5 24.3 26.2 30.6  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 432.0 433.9 438.1 443.4 448.5 450.6 453.6  
CANNELTON LOCK 29.5 31.4 35.2 40.4 43.2 44.8 45.9  
MCALPINE LOWER 35.3 37.6 43.8 49.8 55.2 57.8 61.8  
MCALPINE UPPER 13.8 14.9 17.1 19.8 24.2 26.7 30.5  
TELL CITY 28.3 30.3 33.9 39.7 42.6 44.1 45.0  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 24.2 26.9 34.2 37.3 40.0 45.3 49.3  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 18.5 20.8 22.6 25.3 28.2 30.0 30.8  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 6.3 6.9 9.1 14.4 20.5 27.1 32.0  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 9.2 9.8 11.5 14.4 19.1 23.8 25.8  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 12/12/2017 - 03/12/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BARREN RIVER  
BOWLING GREEN 9.7 8.4 6.9 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.4  
:BLUE RIVER  
FREDERICKSBURG 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4  
:DRAKES CREEK  
ALVATON 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1  
:ELKHORN CREEK  
PEAKS MILL 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:GREEN RIVER  
MUNFORDVILLE 6.1 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.2  
ROCHESTER 12.0 11.3 9.6 9.0 8.6 7.8 7.6  
WOODBURY 11.3 10.0 6.1 4.8 4.0 3.1 3.0  
:KENTUCKY  
CAMP NELSON LOCK 13.0 12.7 12.2 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.2  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
FRANKFORT LOCK 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9  
FORD LOCK 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.6  
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5  
LOCKPORT LOCK 10.0 9.8 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.5  
:LICKING RIVER  
BLUE LICKS SPRING 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0  
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER  
DEPUTY 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2  
:OHIO RIVER  
CLIFTY CREEK 422.1 422.0 421.6 421.3 421.0 420.9 420.7  
CANNELTON LOCK 14.0 13.8 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.9  
MCALPINE LOWER 15.3 14.9 13.1 12.3 11.5 11.0 10.7  
MCALPINE UPPER 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5  
TELL CITY 15.0 14.9 13.9 13.3 12.8 12.4 12.2  
:ROLLING FORK RIVER  
BOSTON 7.3 7.0 6.6 5.8 4.8 4.4 4.2  
:ROUGH RIVER  
DUNDEE 10.6 10.2 7.8 6.6 6.0 5.9 5.9  
:SALT RIVER  
SHEPHERDSVILLE 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5  
:SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER  
CYNTHIANA 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LMK FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED DEC 21.  
 
CMC  
 

 
 
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