904  
FNUS53 KGRR 211917  
FWFGRR  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
..DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND MINIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL BE A BIT CHALLENGING SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ATMOSPHERIC  
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS MIXING HEIGHTS STEADILY GROW FROM  
DAY TO DAY. MONDAY ESPECIALLY COULD END UP SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER  
AND WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
MIZ037>039-043>045-220815-  
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LUDINGTON, BALDWIN, REED CITY, HART,  
FREMONT, AND BIG RAPIDS  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 0100, THEN  
CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, 0-400 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT....... INLAND, 5100-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200  
FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND AROUND 63 INLAND.  
24 HR TREND......  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
24 HR TREND......  
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-5500 FT AGL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND  
6200-6700 FT AGL INLAND.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....400-600 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, 0-500 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT....... INLAND, 4800-5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-600  
FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 100 (POOR)  
OVERNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-4800 FT AGL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND  
5500-6000 FT AGL INLAND.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600-700 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ040-046-220815-  
CLARE-ISABELLA-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLARE AND MOUNT PLEASANT  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-100 (POOR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 7 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....400-600 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....500 (GOOD) DECREASING TO 0 (POOR) OVERNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500-6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....500-600 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ050-056-064-071-220815-  
MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MUSKEGON, GRAND HAVEN, JENISON, HOLLAND,  
AND SOUTH HAVEN  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, 300-800 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT....... INLAND, 3500-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200  
FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-100 (POOR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....800 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, 2400-2900 FT AGL DECREASING  
TO 0-400 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT....... INLAND, 4300-4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300  
FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 0 (POOR)  
OVERNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, 5100-5600 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT....... INLAND, 3800-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO  
6000-6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....700-1100 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ051-052-057>059-220815-  
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GREENVILLE, ALMA, GRAND RAPIDS, IONIA,  
AND ST. JOHNS  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300-5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-6500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600-700 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-100 (POOR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....600-800 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ065>067-072>074-220815-  
BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HASTINGS, CHARLOTTE, LANSING, KALAMAZOO,  
BATTLE CREEK, AND JACKSON  
317 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100, THEN  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....700-800 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-400 (POOR TO GOOD).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....800-1100 (EXCELLENT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
   
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
 
 
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60.  
EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.    
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 7 TO  
12 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS  
5 TO 9 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 6 TO  
11 MPH.    
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.    
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
40S.    
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.    
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
 
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