008
FNUS73 KGRR 201302
FWSGRR
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SUNRISE OAK...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
902 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH PRETTY MUCH DRY. THE
ONLY THING THAT WILL CHANGE WILL BE WINDS CHANGING FROM WEST/NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING...TO ALMOST DUE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY. COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CHANCE OF RAIN
EXISTS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE
CHANCE IS SMALL...AND ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH AT IGNITION...
OTHERWISE BECOMING NORTH 12 TO 17 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 25
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 6000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO
10000 FT AGL LATE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700 KNOT-FT) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
/2500 KNOT-FT/.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH DIMINISHING TO NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH EARLY.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 22 TO 24 MPH DIMINISHING TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DIMINISHING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500 KNOT-FT) DIMINISHING TO GOOD (400
KNOT-FT).
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54.
RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH LATE IN
THE DAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-4900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (1000 KNOT-FT)
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER...NJJ
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20080520.SUNRI.01/GRR
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