742
FNUS73 KPAH 172238
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR INAGHE UNITS 7 8...USFS SHAWNEE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THIS IS A PROVISIONAL FORECAST ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA AND ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 6 AM CDT ON
MARCH 18TH. AN ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE OF THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY TO INCLUDE THE LATEST CHANGES.
THIS SPOT FORECAST ASSUMES SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE AND A DEEPER MIXING LAYER
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT RISE SUFFICIENTLY ON
WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL BE REALIZED.
SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
..THAT IS...NORTH
NORTHWEST AT IGNITION TIME. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BECOMING DUE WEST
BY 5 PM CDT. THE GREATEST DIP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
11 AM AND 2PM CDT...THEN REMAIN STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 9 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2600 FT
AGL INCREASING TO 5400-5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............50 54 57 60 61 63 64 63 62
RH..............48 38 33 27 25 23 24 26 29
20 FT WIND DIR..N NW NW NW NW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW N N NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 1
TO 2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............59 55 53 51 50 49 48 46 46 45 44 44
RH..............34 42 48 54 59 65 71 76 76 79 82 82
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 8 6 2 1
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO
26 MPH.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............43 45 50 54 58 62 65 67 69 70 69 68
RH..............86 76 59 48 39 32 27 25 22 22 23 24
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.0 1 3 7 10 15 18 20 22 24 25 26
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100318.INAGH.01/PAH
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