288
FXUS61 KILN 242358
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
THE ILN AREA IS UNDER A DAMP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. SKIES
WILL STAY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DUE TO
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
COUPLED WITH A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. SNOW WILL MIX IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SKY
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY SLIPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRI BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING LOW TO THE EAST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENOUGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE PRESENT TO NOT ALLOW MUCH SUN TO LESSEN THE TEMPERATURE
FALLS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVERTOP OF CWA BY 12Z SAT AND A WAA PATTERN SETS UP...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS
HIGHS. PTYPE EARLY FRIDAY IS IN QUESTION...HAVE MADE IT SIMPLE AND
PUT A CHANCE OF RW/SW. IF RW IS NOT PREDOMINANT WX TYPE LIKE
SUSPECTED...THE CHANCE FOR PL WILL BE INCREASED AS WELL AS SW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPARENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WARM TEMPS A
LITTLE EACH DAY. CONVERSELY...THE WARMER AIR WILL BE MORE MOIST AND
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE PROGGED TO
BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. THIS IS NOT
LIKELY AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. WILL RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE FOR SAT NIGHT LOWS.
REGARDING PRECIP...LEFTOVER SHOWERS FRI MORNING WILL QUICKLY END BY
NOON...AND THE NEXT CHANCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 12/0Z AND 6/18Z GFS RUNS ARE IN
OPPOSITION WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING MASS FIELDS THIS FAR OUT. 12/0Z
RUNS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND THIS IS THE WAY TO
TREND FORECAST TODAY. MODELLERS ARE SUGGESTING AN ODD BLEND NEARING
THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FCST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OHVLY IS SUGGESTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
THOUGHT PROCESS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CIGS HEIGHTS ROSE FROM THE S AND E LATE THIS AFTN. THIS WAS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY...ONLY MUCH SOONER...CLOSER TO 16-18Z. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS ARE ILN AND DAY. BOTH ARE ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD GO VFR
BY 02Z.
CIGS ACROSS INDIANA ARE VFR...SO IT LOOKS THE TAFS WILL SEE VFR
CIGS UNTIL MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF CDFNT PUSH INTO WRN TAFS AROUND
09Z. H9 MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND FNT WILL PUSH INTO ALL TAFS BY
12Z. BEST H5 DYNAMICS LIFT NE ACRS NW OH INTO MI 12Z-18Z. THIS
WILL TAKE THE BEST CHC OF PCPN NW OF THE TAFS. LIMITED ANY MVFR
VSBYS IN SHRA TO A TEMPO AND ONLY ACRS THE NRN TAFS. IN CVG/LUK
WENT WITH JUST A VCSH.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE TAFS POST FRONTAL FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST A LITTLE AFT 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY...AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...SITES
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