550  
FXUS61 KILN 302353  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
753 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE  
OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY,  
WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ON ITS BACKSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
OFFER DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER TONIGHT.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
CWFA. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT, SOME  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WHITEWATER/MIAMI  
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED  
FOR THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE  
FOR ROTATING STORMS, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO.  
 
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LARGE  
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TITLED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION  
WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY  
OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENT AREA. CONVECTION ALLOWING  
MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON THE MODE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS  
INSTABILITY WANES CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS  
LIKE CLUSTERS OF STORMS, PERHAPS FORMING INTO A ILL-DEFINED  
QLCS, WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWFA  
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND  
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, BUT LARGE HAIL SHOULD WANE AS  
INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE IS ALSO CONCERNED FOR SOME LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN IF SOME STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. ALL OF  
THESE HAZARDS ARE MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT HWO. TEMPERATURES  
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE OCCLUDING ON FRIDAY,  
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER NEW ENGLAND/MID  
ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY ON  
IN OUR FAR EAST, WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE REGION UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PULLS SUFFICIENTLY AWAY. WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME CAA,  
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE MORNING LOWS.  
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST.  
 
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE THREAT FOR  
LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE COOL  
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING H5  
LOW. H5 RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING  
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO  
MID 50S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THEIR DIFFERENCES BY LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER  
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF TEXAS. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND SLOWEST WITH  
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE ECMWF AND CMCNH  
ARE QUICKER AND STRONGER. CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS  
THE FA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE  
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ALSO.  
 
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST MONDAY NIGHT, LEAVING THE REGION DRY FOR  
TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE TONIGHT. AS IT DOES,  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH THE  
HIGHEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION COMING IN THE 02Z TO 09Z TIME  
FRAME AS A SEMI CLUSTER/LINEAR FEATURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS  
THE TERMINALS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AT THIS GIVEN TIME,  
EITHER TEMPO THUNDER OR VCTS HAS BEEN USED. AVIATORS CAN  
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE  
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/IFR VISIBILITIES IN  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED IN A SHORT TERM  
TEMPO AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EVOLVE. GUSTY WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME MORE STABLE BY THIS EVENING.  
 
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY, WITH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY HAVING MOVED EAST  
WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EAST AND SPOTTY  
SHOWERS WEST ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CEILINGS  
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE MVFR LOWER CATEGORY, I.E. IN THE 1000 TO  
2000 FOOT RANGE.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE  
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SHOWER THREAT WILL  
TAPER OF BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...SITES  
AVIATION...HICKMAN  
 
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