882  
FXUS61 KILN 240556  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1256 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, BUT COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL  
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL  
GRADUALLY WARM UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE  
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN  
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWFA  
WILL THEN TAPER OFF. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS  
EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, IN THE CAA, WE MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES, SO  
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
THE COLDEST 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS  
WILL SET UP WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK (LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 30S), AND ALSO ANOTHER VERY CLOUDY DAY, WITH RH NEAR/AT  
SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
THIS RH SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM. FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO WEDNESDAY AS WELL,  
WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT ALSO EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES  
TO TREND TOWARD BEING BETTER DEFINED AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AS  
IT DID IN THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE, SOME POPS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS  
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY, AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION  
(THOUGH IT WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH). AS IS USUALLY  
THE CASE, THIS POSITION IN THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS THE  
COOLEST MIN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND  
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. FORECAST MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED  
BY SEVERAL DEGREES -- NOW RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE  
CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO  
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP US  
DRY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS  
WE START TO GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW  
LEVEL FLOW/WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH  
HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST  
ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY, HELPING  
TO PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY  
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  
POSSIBLE ENERGY RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND JUST HOW LONG  
ANY PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW, WILL GO AHEAD AND  
TRIM POPS BACK TO CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND. PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN INITIALLY, BUT AS CAA DEVELOPS ON  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE A MIX WITH AND THEN  
POSSIBLE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON  
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH SOME NON DIURNAL  
TEMPERATURES THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAST  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA. RIDGING AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL READINGS THROUGH THE  
LATER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
WEAK H5 S/W MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW IS CAUSING AN AREA OF LIGHT  
SNOW ACROSS THE TAFS. THIS AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAFS IN  
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD, PLUS CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP  
THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME  
OBS AROUND CENTRAL IN ARE INDICTING FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND SEE IF IT MOVES E INTO THE TAFS.  
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  
 
ANOTHER S/W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COMBINING WITH CAA SHOULD CAUSE  
MORE SNOW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS, SO CONTINUED WITH A VCSH MENTION.  
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY  
RISING TO AROUND 2500 FEET BY 18Z.  
 
CEILING SHOULD RISE TO VFR TOWARDS 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE PULLS  
EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HATZOS  
LONG TERM...JGL  
AVIATION...SITES  
 
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