059
FXUS61 KILN 201730
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...SO NOT
SURE HOW MANY OF THESE CLOUDS WILL END UP MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION IS WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CU DEVELOPMENT TO GENERALLY KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO A 20 POP ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE BIT OF
SUNSHINE...CAA PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AIR UNDERNEATH THE ROTATING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION. A SECOND SHOT OF FORCING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS
SOME SUNSHINE HITS THE COLD AIR...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK PROVIDES
TURBULENT MIXING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL VORT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
THEY ARE TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT THE SAME AS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL WORK THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS HIGH...BUT IT IS UNDERCUTTING THE
REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE
ERN GTLKS REGION. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE EJECTED E ON THURS
NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING S/W ROTATING THROUGH IT AND THE ERN OHVLY
ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LAKES INFLUENCE AS THE
DRIER AIR HAS HAD A CHANCE TO WORK INTO THE MAJORITY OF OHIO AND
CWA.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND SETTLE FROM THE NORTHERN
GTLKS TO THE OH RIVER ON SUN...WORKING TO THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT
AND MON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
IS PROGGED A LITTLE EARLIER BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL...SO SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP WERE MADE STARTING
ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY
STARTING BELOW NORMAL AND THEN WORKING TO NORMAL...WHICH IS MID
50S FOR LOWS AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN
THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW SOME TEMPS TO WORK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES LATE
IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CU HAS FILLED BACK IN ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AC ALSO PUSHING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH...WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME BKN CU ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
WITH MODELS THEN HANGING ON TO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HOLD
ON TO A BKN AC DECK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK BUT LEAVE REMAINING TAFS
DRY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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