506  
FXUS61 KILN 201307  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
907 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA,  
OFFERING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND  
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE, BUT TO  
CONTINUE AN SPS MENTION OF FOG FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AS THE  
AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG HAS HAS DIMINISHED TO AN EXTENT.  
A FEW SITES (ESPECIALLY IN A HAMILTON/WARREN/CLINTON COUNTY  
CLUSTER) REMAIN AT 1/4SM BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MOST OF  
THE THICKER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEY  
LOCATIONS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >  
VISIBILITES SEEMED TO BE CRASHING SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD  
DESK, SO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. MOSITURE SEEMED  
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ONLY ISSUE IT UNTIL 9 AM, AS THE FOG WILL  
HOPEFULLY BEGIN TO BURN OFF QUICKLY.  
 
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION>>>  
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO  
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE  
WEST. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LEAD  
TO A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HAVE LIMITED POPS  
TO VERY LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. AN  
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.  
 
LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER  
ILN/S SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT WINDS, AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED  
MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR REDUCED  
VISIBILITY DUE TO THE FOG.  
 
EXPECT THE FOG TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH  
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH  
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 60S.  
 
WITH RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION AND WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT  
FORCING HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO  
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND  
UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ROBUST RIDGE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DICTATE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST MODELS INDICATE 1020 MB  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 5900  
METER 500MB HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN CANADA.  
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SHOWN TO RETROGRADE UNDER THE UPPER HIGH TO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY, WITH THE SYSTEM THEN  
EXHIBITING MODEST HEIGHT AND PRESSURE FALLS BY TUESDAY.  
 
THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL BE ABSENT OF FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE,  
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION THE RULE IN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND  
THE HIGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED, AND TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL  
HEIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FRIDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY MAY SLIP ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES TO THE LOWER 80S  
TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES, BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR JULY, WILL BE  
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH  
RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A  
FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER KCMH AND  
KLCK INTO ABOUT MID AFTN BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED  
TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
MEANWHILE, WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT, LIGHT WINDS AND  
CLEARING SKIES, FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS KCVG/KLUK AND KILN.  
EARLY IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE BECOMING VFR BY MID  
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING  
THIS EVENING. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KDAY AND KCMH WITH  
IFR CONDITIONS AT THE MORE FOG FAVORED LOCATION OF KLUK/KILN  
AND KLCK.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AR  
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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