088  
FXUS61 KILN 250540  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
140 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE  
REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, FOLLOWED  
BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL  
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR  
SOME CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH IN THE PRE  
DAWN HOURS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL ALSO  
HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND WILL RANGE LOWS FROM THE  
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY ON  
MONDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. APPEARS THAT  
THIS WILL DIMINISH/MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
NONETHELESS, EXPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING  
LINGERING CLOUDS, TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING AS MUCH AS  
NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY, PROMOTING A  
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS  
QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO  
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
BEST FORCING WILL INITIALLY RESIDE CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
OVER THE MIDWEST, BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY  
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, CONTINUE WITH  
CHANCE POPS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THEN, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT,  
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (CAPE) CAN DEVELOP, HOWEVER DUE  
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PLENTY OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO START THE DAY,  
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER IS LOW.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL  
BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN MESSAGE DURING THIS  
PERIOD WILL BE HOT AND HUMID. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY  
WIND UP BEING AROUND 100 DEGREES. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE,  
THIS WILL HAVE AN INHIBITORY EFFECT ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND  
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER THE  
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, HAVE  
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE  
VICINITY OF CVG AND LUK AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH  
KENTUCKY. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACTS OF SHOWERS,  
AND FOR FURTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD ILN.  
 
AFTER SHOWERS MOVE EAST BY EVENING, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE THE VFR THRESHOLD. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WILL STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...JGL  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...BPP  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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