778  
FXUS61 KILN 141743  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
143 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A  
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL  
BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
FEW AND FAR IN-BETWEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT REACH ANY EXTENT TO CREATE THUNDER  
TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY THE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWERS,  
BUT AN ISOLATED ONE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE REST  
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WELL AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO COME  
IN LINE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVED VALUES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT WITH  
JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME. SHORT WAVE EJECTING  
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THIS  
ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND  
THUS GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING FROM THE  
WHITEWATER VALLEY INTO THE MIAMI VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION AND  
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS, SUPPRESSING  
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EASTERN  
AREAS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER THAN READINGS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD  
WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. A WEATHER  
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ALREADY HIGH AND  
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DUE  
TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY AND GIVEN VERY HIGH PWAT  
VALUES, THERE WILL BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION TO THE  
FLOODING CONCERNS THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CIPS ANALOGS WERE ALSO HINTING AT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WE WELL ON THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN  
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO  
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NOSING IN FROM  
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM  
AFFECTING THE REGION WILL NOT BE FOUND THROUGH 18Z AT ANY TAF  
SITE, AND I WAS RELUCTANT TO INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER AT KCVG  
GIVEN THAT THEY WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED FROM A 6-7KFT DECK  
AND PRIMARILY VFR IF THEY DID OCCUR THERE TOMORROW THROUGH 0Z.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 5KT WITH SOME 8-10KT HIGHER VALUES THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE HEATING.  
 
THESE SHOWERS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WELL-DEFINED AND LOWER LEVEL  
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS LATER MODEL RUNS COME  
IN, PARTICULARLY AT THE LONGER-RANGED CVG TAF PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...FRANKS  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...FRANKS  
 
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