073  
FXUS63 KGRR 260730  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
330 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY  
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY USHERS IN CHILLY WEATHER FOR THE  
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. THE  
COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AND ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
A REAL NICE DAY IS IN STORE WITH THE SFC RIDGE PROVING FULL SUN  
AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS THAT THE AFTERNOON  
LAKE BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE MI WILL LIKELY BRING A  
PERIOD OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS (10-20 MPH) AND SEND  
TEMPERATURES DOWN AFTER REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LATEST  
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAKE BREEZE COULD PENETRATE RATHER FAR  
INLAND LATER TODAY, REACHING GRR AROUND 4-5 PM AND CONTINUING EAST  
OF THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MIDNIGHT AROUND  
LUDINGTON AND CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. BEST POPS WILL BE  
NORTH OF I-96, WHERE SOME SNOW FLAKES COULD EVEN MIX IN. QPF WITH  
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVE LATE IN  
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS RELATED TO LEFT FRONT  
QUAD OF THE 80-100 KT JET CORE DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH. REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM THE CAMS SUGGEST A  
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE PRECIP AS IT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY  
NIGHT, AND EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS SFC TEMPS FALL AFTER  
DARK. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS AT  
NIGHT.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE, SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE  
CHILLY AND BREEZY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE  
GRTLKS REGION. THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
DIURNAL CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR MASS MAY OFFSET THAT  
POTENTIAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB  
INTO THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST US AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT  
LAKES WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE PLAINS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO  
BY WEDNESDAY AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST TOWARD LAKE  
MICHIGAN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER  
KANSAS AND RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP  
WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL  
BECOME WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED, BUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT  
LATE TONIGHT MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES. WINDS  
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN SHIFT  
NORTHERLY BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. THE AFTER A BRIEF LULL, ADVISORIES  
ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STRONG  
NORTH FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.  
 

 
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. ONLY A  
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. LOCAL,  
NUISANCE FLOODING MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE PARTICULAR  
LOCATIONS: IONIA, EAGLE, MAPLE RAPIDS, NEWAYGO, AND EVART. LOOKING  
AT THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE NEXT RISK FOR RAIN COMES LATE THURSDAY AND  
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS. BEYOND  
THIS, RAIN MAY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT TOO EARLY TO  
TELL IF THIS WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MEADE  
SHORT TERM...MEADE  
LONG TERM...04  
AVIATION...04  
HYDROLOGY...HOVING  
MARINE...MEADE  
 
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