183
FXUS63 KIND 260708
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE, MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, UNSEASONABLY WARM
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S THEN TURNING COOLER EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASSING BY OVERHEAD KEEPING THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA; HOWEVER THE NEXT PASSING UPPER WAVE IS CLEARLY
DEPICTED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY WITH THE ONLY IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER BEING ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 UNDER THIS CLOUD DECK, SO
EXPECT A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE RISE LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW METARS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN IL ARE REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT WITH PRETTY HIGH CLOUD BASES
INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AT LEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. BASED ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE WAVE AND SHOWERS, BEST THREAT FOR A PASSING SHOWER
THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ENTERING NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS THIS ENERGY ENTERING CENTRAL
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THERE WILL BE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING TO OCCUR. RAP
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO CREATE
AN INVERTED V SOUNDING WITH A NEAR SATURATED MID LEVEL LAYER. DRY
AIR AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A
MINIMUM LATER THIS AFTERNOON; BUT STILL KEEPING AT LEAST 20 POPS AS
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WHAT SOME
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MIXING. ANY AREA THAT
GETS REPEATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR,
MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS.
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT ON BOTH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER AS
YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POPS INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MORE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMMENCES ON
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE EVENTUAL
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FACTOR FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING THE BOUNDARY LAYING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A BROAD SWATH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH IN TANDEM. AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE LIKELY RETURNING AS WELL. LOW LEVEL THERMALS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GULF MOISTURE WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION
ON THE WARM SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS POISED TO LIFT OUT OF
TEXAS AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY AS IT
WEAKENS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING ALOFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES BY LATE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LASTLY...A NOTED INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ROLLER COASTER
WILL CONTINUE AS COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
AIDED BY A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. THE ADDITION OF COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REVERT BACK TO BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT UNDER 10
KTS AND OUT OF THE WEST/WEST NORTHWEST, MULTIPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. STILL EXPECTING VFR CIGS AND VIS EVEN UNDER
PASSING SHOWERS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...CM
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