804
FXUS63 KIND 261402
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- *HEAT ADVISORY* CONTINUES THROUGH LATE DAY FRIDAY
- HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-107 DEGREES AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE 74 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY
- SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS, ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
ONLY MINOR EDITS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STEEPENED THE
DIURNAL TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SINCE CLOUD COVER IS A BIT LESS THAN
MODELED. OTHERWISE, LEFT EVERYTHING ELSE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH WITH A BIT LESS
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 100-106F IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO RELIEF SO MAKE SURE TO
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE
DURING PEAK HEATING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AC OR SHADED AREAS.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S PROMOTES
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT HIGH DCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS TO MOSTLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT LOOK FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
..HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF EXTENSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS
THE AREA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST, BUT LITTLE TO NO FORCING
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA IN ITS WAKE. THUS AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS
AFTERNOON CAPE IS OVER 2000 J/KG.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT, THE FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTED TO ALLOW A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA, ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND WITH THIS ADDED FORCING, CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAS GROWN FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOW DEEP SATURATION IN PLACE, WHILE
INSTABILITY AND CAPE NEAR 1900 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS IT IS AT THESE TIMES WHEN POPS WILL BE
GREATEST.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A DRY DAY AS MODELS SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY IS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NBM MAY TRY TO INCLUDE
SOME LOW POPS HERE DUE TO THE HUMID AIR MASS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND COOLER DAYS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MID
LEVEL DRYING DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
IMPACTS:
- CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION:
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
MAY AID IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECISE TIMING OR COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. VCTS WAS ADDED FOR LAF WHERE STORMS CHANCES
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THOUGH, FROM 18Z TODAY TO 01Z THIS EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD END OR DIMINISH AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAIN
LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...MELO
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