060
FXUS63 KIND 121006
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
606 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008
AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY. SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK S TOWARD THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN CU DEVELOP WITH HEATING. CU RULE INDICATES
CU SHOULD STAY IN THE SCT CATEGORY. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
06Z SFC MAP SHOWS ONE LOW CENTER ACROSS NE OH WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SFC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED WELL INTO
THE GULF. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
PREFER THE GFS FOR THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COME WEDS DUE TO THE
FACT IT HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES. NO STRONG PREFERENCE FOR
MOS TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM SINCE MAV/METMOS. WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS
FOR TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS GOING COOLER THAN ALL MOS TONIGHT AS
THE SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNNY...DRY AND COOL WX WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SCT CU AT BEST MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH WARMER CONDS BY TUES
AS WAA BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AS MENTIONED...WILL USE THE FASTER GFS FOR THE COLD FRONT WEDS. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHCS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY WEDS NIGHT WHEREAS
THE NAM IS SLOWER AND KEEPS RAIN CHCS AROUND WEDS NIGHT. NO CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL CLIP THE
AREA THU/FRI WITH ONLY SMALL RAIN CHCS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY
PASS THROUGH AROUND SAT WITH COOLER THAN AVG CONDS EXPECTED SUN/MON
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...CO
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