280  
FXUS63 KIND 201011  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
611 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE AREA. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND LOWS TONIGHT COULD AGAIN BE IN THE  
MID 30S. AFTER THAT, THOUGH, SHOULD SEE A WARM UP ON THE LOWS. DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST  
MONDAY, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE ACTIVE COME MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
A FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING WITH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT  
3 AM. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TO  
OCCUR, SO THAT EVEN THOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT BELOW FREEZING  
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN DRY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA, SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY  
RAPIDLY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.  
HOWEVER, WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S,  
COULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF FROST. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH WINDS DROP OFF, SO CONSENSUS WAS TO HOLD OFF  
ON ANY FROST HEADLINE AT THIS POINT.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
AND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH COULD SEE  
SHOWERS SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT  
CHANCE THEN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS THOUGH AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE  
BETTER FORCING SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON SHOWER CHANCES.  
 
MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND BEFORE IT IS KICKED TO THE EAST  
BY ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA NEXT  
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
FORECAST BUILDER SUGGESTS WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT  
FURTHER NORTH THAN OLDER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS, AT LEAST SOUTHERN  
AND THE EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TO START OFF WITH.  
HOWEVER, THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. FINALLY, BRIEF DRY WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE THE SECOND SYSTEM.  
 
THE BLEND HAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOK  
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMALS. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN  
PRECISE TEMPERATURES IS NOT HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
 
 
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY COLUMN GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR FLYING  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD PER THE SREF AND GFS LAMP.  
 
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ045>048-  
051>057-060>065-067>072.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CP  
NEAR TERM...CP  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...MK  
AVIATION...MK  
 
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