489  
FXUS63 KIND 291028  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
628 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
WEAK FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS INDIANA FROM THE WEST UNTIL  
WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN USA SHOULD  
TAKE CONTROL OF HOOSIER WEATHER.  
 
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FRIDAY. IT  
WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY, STAYING ACROSS OUR STATE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM (TODAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
THE MAIN ISSUE IS POPS.  
 
FOR SEVERAL RUNS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING ABOUT A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY COMING THROUGH LATE TODAY.  
THINGS AREN'T NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY, BUT SOME MODELS  
FIRE SOMETHING WHILE OTHERS DON'T. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTH FROM CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD BY ALLOWING FOR  
SOMETHING, BUT NOT HITTING IT HARD.  
 
WHILE WE ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, THE DAY SHOULD BE  
PARTLY CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS APPROACHING CLOUD BANDS, AND WET  
GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE DIURNAL CUMULUS.  
 
AT INDIANAPOLIS, CONSENSUS PRODUCED A PERFECT TEMPERATURE FORECAST  
YESTERDAY. IN THE SAME BASIC SITUATION, IT OUGHT TO WORK WELL  
AGAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS POPS.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SERIES OF  
WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS. THEY DIFFER ABOUT POPS, A TYPICAL PROBLEM  
WITH SUBTLE FEATURES. CONSENSUS WILL BE USED TO MINIMIZE ERROR,  
BUT THOSE COULD STILL BE AS HIGH AS 20 PERCENT  
 
BESIDES UP AND DOWN RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FINALLY BRING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING AS ALL  
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA.  
 
GIVEN CONSENSUS POPS WILL BE USED, SO WILL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.  
THE UNDERLYING THERMAL FIELDS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO POSSIBLE ERRORS  
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1-3 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GENERALLY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER  
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE U.S., AND ANOTHER TROUGH  
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK TROUGH IS  
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND WEST TX.  
 
GIVEN THE VARIANCE IN THE SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
THE FORECAST. AS IT IS RIGHT NOW, LOOKS LIKE CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CARRIED EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE  
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY  
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES  
TO BEGIN JUNE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY AND IN THE  
LOW-MID 60S AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (DISCUSSION FOR 291200Z TAFS)
 
 
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
DRIER AIR THAN RECENTLY WILL CAUSE VFR TO PREDOMINATE, WITH EITHER  
NO CEILINGS OR CEILINGS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. A WEAK FRONT FROM  
THE WEST MAY CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20Z-06Z. THE  
CHANCE OF STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  
 
EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS TODAY AND WEST 5-10 KNOTS  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JK  
NEAR TERM...JK  
SHORT TERM...JK  
LONG TERM....DWM  
AVIATION...JK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page