794  
FXUS63 KIND 240740  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
240 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED  
BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE  
AREA, ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SUGGESTS THIS IS NOT  
WIDESPREAD. MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS  
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO MOVE OFF  
TO THE EAST AROUND 241100Z, SO EXPECTING ANY LINGERING FREEZING  
DRIZZLE TO END PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  
 
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IOWA IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF  
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, SO THINK THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY ARE SMALL. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF  
THE TROUGH, WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST.  
 
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A  
LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN A  
CATEGORY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET, AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE  
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEY.  
 
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE  
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45  
KTS. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ENSEMBLES  
ARE LESS SO. WILL GO WITH POPS FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHS ON  
FRIDAY, WHICH LOOK A LITTLE WARM. WILL CUT ABOUT A CATEGORY OFF OF  
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS AT THAT TIME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH  
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AROUND SUNDAY OR MONDAY.  
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE, BUT DID  
NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM LATEST INTIALIZATION.  
 
WILL GO WITH POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO COVER THIS  
FEATURE. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BY THE TIME IT TRANSITIONS, MOISTURE WILL BE  
MINIMAL SO A LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
GOOD CONFIDENCE THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE  
NIGHT AND MUCH OF TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE  
AT IND AND BMG PER LATEST TRENDS. COULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT INH  
FLYING CONDITIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER  
UPPER WAVE BRINGS A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE VICINITY OF  
THE TERMIMALS.  
 
WINDS WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JAS  
NEAR TERM...JAS  
SHORT TERM...JAS  
LONG TERM....KH/TDUD  
AVIATION...MK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page