441
FXUS63 KIND 041057
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO INDIANA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FIRST CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER DURING THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JUST MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
THE RAIN AND SO WILL CARRY THIS IN THE FORECAST. AS THE LOW PULLS
EAST AND CLOSE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...MORE VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO WITH AN MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN ALL SITES SHOULD FALL TO AT
LEAST IFR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS UNDER 500 FEET AT HUF AND BMG LATE
TONIGHT. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST IN THE IFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 225 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GRT LKS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO KY AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES WAS
FOUND ACRS CENTRAL KS. CI AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPILLING INTO IL AND
INDIANA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS PCPN ACRS IL AND EASTERN MO SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.
WL USE A BLEND AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...TRACKING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS MO TO SRN IL AND TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...MANY FACTORS ARE POINTING TO RAIN
FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY STRONG VV ACRS THE AREA AFT 18Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NEARLY 50
KNTS OF UPGLIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOS
AS MIXING RATIOS ARE NEAR 10 G/KG. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT REALLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONGOING WORDING
HANDLES THIS WELL. LOWER LVL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE
STRONG ALSO AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD AND EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAVMOS HIGHS
TDY. WL ALSO RAISE POPS TO NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW.
WL BE UNABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED 00Z AND SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFT 06Z SUN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE A STRONG
AREA OF VV ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE FA. WL RAISE POPS MAINLY ACRS
THE SE...BUT WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ELSEWHERE AS THE HIGH LIKELYS
SHUD WORK WELL. GIVE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN AND LACK OF CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS
FOR LOWS.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACRS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED H8 TEMPS OF 12-13C...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
ON HIGHS UNDER PTCLDY SKIES. CU RULE SUGGESTS PTCLDY SKIES. WL STICK
CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY/S NIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER PLEASANT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH RETAINS
CONTROL. AS H8 TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS...BUT MAVMOS STILL APPEARS A BIT TOO WARM.
WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER.
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FARTHER IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST
AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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