844
FXUS63 KIND 071843
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
143 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE CLOUD COVER TNGT...TEMPS TNGT AND
TOMORROW AND TIMING/CVRG OF RW'S EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CD FNT.
VSBL SATELLITE PIX REVEALED FULL SS ACRS THE OH VLY AND LWR GT LKS
WHICH ALONG WITH GUSTY SW LOW LVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACRS CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC ANLYS REVEALED HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC
COAST AND A CD FNT FM SERN WI TO NRN MO. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN
FEATURED FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OH VLY WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS NWRN
MEXICO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE CD FNT TNGT AS IT STALLS ACRS THE SRN GT LKS. WL DISCOUNT THE
GFS AS IT ALREADY HAD 95% RH AT 925 MB THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE LOWER
GT LKS AND OH VLY AND YET THERE WAS NOT EVEN A PUFF OF CU. SO FAVOR
THE CANADIAN MODEL REGARDING LOW LVL MOISTURE PATTERN THAT WOULD
ONLY BRING SCT AT BEST CU ACRS THE FA TNGT. THUS...WENT WITH THE
COOLER GFS MOS TNGT. ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
TNGT...SW WINDS SHOULD STILL STAY 5 KTS OR MORE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
FOG FM FORMING. TOMORROW...MODELS AGREE ON 15-16 DEGREES AT 850 MB
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE
SIMILAR GFS AND NAM MOS AS THEY HAVE DONE TODAY WITH AGAIN NEAR FULL
SS EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKING LIKE MON NGT AND TUES ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE LWR GT LKS ON TUES
ALONG WITH A WEAK CD FNT. WENT WITH TIMING OF THE 00Z EURO AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT AND IS FAVORED BY HPC. ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FCST WL BE TO INTRODUCE A SLGT CHANCE OF RW'S SERN ZONES MON NGT.
KEPT SMALL CHC POPS IN ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MIDWEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER CD FNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THUS...INTRODUCED CHC POPS THEN COINCIDING WITH QPF FM BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS.
AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 07/18Z TAFS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25KT WITH
FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 23Z. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS
TO POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG/CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...AND WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
FOG MOST SITES AFT 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW STRATUS
DECK...BUT MODELS ALSO HAD HIGH HUMIDITIES ACROSS AREA ATTM...AND
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THUS DO NOT TRUST MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...AREA
OF STRATUS TRIED TO WORK N FM TX INTO AR THIS MORNING...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY GET INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING. THUS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP PREV FORECAST OF JUST SCT012...BUT LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DECK.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO NEAR 10KT AND THIS MIXING
WILL DISSIPATE FOG AND ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...CS
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