319  
FXUS63 KIND 202037  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
435 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS  
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES  
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...  
THEN STALL AND MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NOT AS  
HOT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH BROUGHT STORMS MIDDAY HAS MOVED ON  
TO THE EAST. RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OUR WAY. MODELS INDICATE GOOD LOW  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
THIS EVENING OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE  
OUR WAY OVERNIGHT.  
 
SPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE  
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER TWO INCHES. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE  
POPS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS  
REMAIN DRY.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHICH IS CLOSE TO A  
MOS BLEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT....WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN ISSUES  
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HOW HOT AND HUMID IT GETS AND ALSO  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
860 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LOWER  
20S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 90S AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
70S WILL PRODUCE INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS  
OF OUR SOUTH. WILL ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY TO  
THE HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING TOMORROW. THIS INCLUDES GREENE AND  
LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH JENNINGS COUNTIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH. ALL  
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL THEN REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z SATURDAY.  
 
IN REGARDS TO POPS...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL TOMORROW MORNING  
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT  
FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND SATURDAY...WHILE A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE THE RULE IN THE  
NORTH. RAISED POPS A LITTLE MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
COLD FRONT AGAIN MOVES OUR WAY.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER WITH A FEW STORMS SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH INDIANA HAVING AN UPPER WAVE MOVE THROUGH  
ALONG WITH A FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THUS WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT TO  
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND, AND THESE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE  
SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS (LOW TO MID  
80S) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT UPPER RIDGING  
BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING TREND ON  
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN  
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSES AND MORE  
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVE. LOOKING AT THICKNESSES AND UPPER PATTERN  
THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES WIND UP A LITTLE  
WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (DISCUSSION FOR THE 202100Z KIND TAF UPDATE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS IS PROGGED TO  
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING.  
CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THE KIND TERMINAL MAY INCREASE  
TOWARDS/AFTER ABOUT 210200Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE  
TRENDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE  
ON TO THE EAST. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR THE REST OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE MORE STORMS  
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA  
BY LATE EVENING AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA  
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD  
OF VCTS AT KLAF FROM 03Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. COULD AFFECT IND TAF AS  
WELL...BUT CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE VFR WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO  
BROKEN MID CLOUDS. WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KLAF VERY  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND VARIABLE  
AROUND 5 KNOTS MOST OTHER PERIODS.  
 

 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ061-  
070>072.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ060-067>069.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JH  
NEAR TERM...JH  
SHORT TERM...JH  
LONG TERM....CP  
AVIATION...JH/JAS  
 
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