838  
FXUS63 KIND 201138  
AFDIND  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
638 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO MAINLY  
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY  
NIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN, VARYING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL  
BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
/TODAY/  
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PASSING  
ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES. AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS  
WILL BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS, BUT WILL  
HAVE TO REEVALUATE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN CANADA.  
THUS EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY NORTH.  
 
ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD THEN BE AROUND TO WORK WITH WARM ADVECTION  
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MODEL BLEND'S MID 40S TO LOWER  
50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE MODEL BLEND INITIALIZATION  
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NORTH.  
 
ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MORE MODELS  
ARE COMING ON BOARD WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH  
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY  
LIMITED WITH JUST A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
WILL KEEP THE BLEND'S LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE  
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM DUE TO  
THE LIMITED MOISTURE. SOME LOW POPS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR EAST  
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS.  
 
MORE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS SOME OF STRONGER  
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTS AROUND 30  
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNING.  
 
THE BLEND'S TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE, WITH NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR  
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EARLY IN THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND SOME OF ITS  
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AFTER THAT,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AGAIN  
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN  
QUICKLY PLUMMET BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
 
 
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF  
THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 12 KTS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS. WINDS SHOULD BE UNIFORMLY STRONG IN THE LOWER  
LEVELS, SO SHEAR SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM.  
 

 
   
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...50  
NEAR TERM...50  
SHORT TERM...50  
LONG TERM....TDUD  
AVIATION...TDUD  
 
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