346
FXUS63 KIND 231900
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY
- HEAT INDICES REMAINING DANGEROUS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
- ISOLATED STORMS LATE TOMORROW, MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LAST OF THE SMOKE ALOFT
IS EXITING ACCORDING TO THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL WITH SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS/SMOKE ALOFT. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WEAK TO NEAR CALM WHICH IS LIMITING
THE MIXING OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO
STEADILY RISE. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON HEAD INDICES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA, BUT WITH THE
EXPECTATIONS OF SEEING TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED RISE IN DEW POINTS, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL
LOOKS TO BE MET ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S IN
THE EAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENING AND WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN FAILURE MODE FOR
THE HIGHER END HEAT WILL BE THE STRONGER WINDS AT THE SURFACE DUE TO
BETTER MIXING ALOFT WHICH COULD LIMIT THE HIGHER END POTENTIAL FOR
DEW POINTS.
THE HRRR, WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THESE BETTER MIX DAYS, SHOWS PEAK
HEAT INDICES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THAT BEING SAID, DON'T PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE HEADLINES DUE TO
HOW CLOSE WE'LL BE TO THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW MUCH THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WITH A
FAIRLY ROBUST CAP, CHANCE AND COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM DOES FORM, THERE WILL BE MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH
COULD FAVOR A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT RETROGRADES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, ENDING UP OVER THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEK. THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT, REPLACED BY
INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. STORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH ON FRIDAY AS A
BOUNDARY APPROACHES INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
INDIANA BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IN
THE AIR MASS PRECEDING IT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALREADY ELEVATED,
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER FLORIDA MAY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. THIS COULD ACT TO DEEPENS THE MOISTURE PROFILE
ALLOWING FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION, COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND OR
REPETITIVE STORM TRACKS, WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW AND WIND SHEAR LOOK MODEST AT BEST, SO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW MCSS PROPAGATING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL POTENTIALLY
INCREASES A BIT NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ABOUT
MIDWEEK BRINGING DRIER NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THOUGH STILL A
WEEK OUT, THERE'S SOME MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SCENARIO.
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, LIKE HOW STRONG THE FRONT IS AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL FRONT, WITH IMPROVING WEATHER BEHIND IT.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
IMPACTS:
- NONE.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND
5=10KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DROP TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-030-031-
037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ028-029-035-036-
043>045-051>053-060-061-067>069.
SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...WHITE
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