790  
FXUS63 KIWX 152307  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
707 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT  
WILL DROP TO NEAR 70, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 80 DEGREES.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY WEEKEND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER THE  
MISSOURI VALLEY AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY ENE  
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE WAVE ITSELF WILL DAMPEN AS IT  
APPROACHES, HOWEVER EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE  
RAMPING/LEADING LLJ CORE SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL SCALE, CONVECTIVELY AIDED, VORT AND MORE  
FOCUSED CONVERGENCE WITHIN MOISTURE CHANNEL LOOKS TO OVERLAP INTO  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS  
TIME WHERE HIGHER POPS WERE RETAINED. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES MAY LEAD TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69.  
LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE ISO-SCT CONVECTION REFIRES MID-LATE AFTN THANKS TO  
DIURNAL HEATING AND A LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE.  
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S  
TOMORROW OTHERWISE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
 
CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL PERSIST INTO  
FRIDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS THROUGH. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED BY A DRY/SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
BEHIND FRIDAY'S WAVE. NEXT PV ANOMALY LOOKS RATHER ROBUST IN NW  
FLOW LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS  
COULD PRESENT A ROUND OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME,  
THOUGH DETAILS (TIMING/INTENSITY) REMAIN SKETCHY AT THIS FORECAST  
RANGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
 
DISCERNIBLE BUT WEAKENING MCV NEAR KGUS WILL CONTINUE NEWD SHORT  
TERM AS MID LEVEL PRECIP ECHOES INVOF KFWA DIMINISH. BETTER LOW  
LEVEL THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION SEEN RAPIDLY ADVANCING NEWD OUT OF  
SRN IL/SRN IN AHEAD OF SECONDARY/STRONGER DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF  
ERN MO. THIS SHOULD SPURN MORE SIG SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD  
MIDNIGHT SOUTH AND BORNE OUT IN LIKE MINDER RECENT CAMS SOLUTIONS.  
KSBN GENERALLY SITS IN SPLITSVILLE VOID OF ANY SIG VERTICAL MOTION  
AND HAVE DROPPED MUCH OF PRIOR PRECIP MENTION.  
 
NEVERTHELESS BACKING TO SERLY SFC FLOW AND RAMPING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL YIELD DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT  
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO  
IMPROVE THROUGH THU MORNING.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL  
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL  
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL  
AVIATION...T  
 
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