418
FXUS63 KIWX 231308
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
908 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- FROST AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- WINDY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST, MAINLY TO ADJUST TRENDS FOR ARRIVAL
OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING, WITH EVEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A FEW OF THESE GAINING
ENOUGH HEIGHT TO PRODUCE CLOUD FLASHES (AND NOW 1 LIGHTNING
STRIKE WEST OF WINAMAC. A BIT AGO LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A TOUCH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WHILE SOME STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED UPSTREAM,
WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOR THE TIME BEING BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE, RETURNS NOTED UPSTREAM ARE NOT FULLY REACHING THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS AS LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. RAMP
UP TO CAT POPS STILL IN ORDER WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL EXISTS
IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE AREA (ALTHOUGH IT WAS TRIMMED A BIT WITH
THE 13Z OUTLOOK) FOR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHEN ADDITIONAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO FROPA. GIVEN HOW THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ALREADY RESPONDING (WITH THE LIGHTNING) PRIOR TO THE FRONT, MAY
HAVE TO KEEP A BIT CLOSER EYE ON THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FLATTER SOLUTION ALOFT TO POTENT WAVE
DISTURBANCE OVER NW MN THIS MORNING AS IT DIGS INTO NW OH BY LATE
EVENING. EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TRANSLATING SEWD OF THIS
WAVE DRIVING A DEEPENING FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN IN UPSTREAM
COMPOSITE RADAR ACROSS SRN NE ATTM AND EXPECT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION EWD THROUGH NRN MO/FAR SRN IA INTO DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER BAND EXPANDS/OVERSPREAD THROUGH NRN IN AND INTO SE MI BY AFTN.
STRONG 00Z CONCENSUS HAS SHIFTED PRIMARY RAIN BAND NORTH FROM PRIOR
AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH HIGHEST STRIPE OF POPS FOR TODAY. DRY SLOT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER WAVE WRAPS EWD THIS EVENING AND MAY ILLICIT
ISOLD THUNDER IN SRN MI WHERE A MODEST EML WITHIN MID LVL
DRYSLOT OVERLAPS RESIDUAL BUT DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME.
ANOTHER BRIEF BUT SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS IN BEHIND THIS SYS
WED ESP EAST HALF IN PROXIMITY TO ERN LAKES CENTERED THERMAL TROUGH.
GUIDANCE 2M TEMPS ARE QUITE COLD HERE AND MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
PROXIMITY TO SFC RIDGE AXIS.
DRAMATIC REBOUND FOLLOWS AS PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS FLIPS IN
RESPONSE TO SIG WRN TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS LONG TERM WITH WARM AND
UNSETTLED WX DEVELOPING. BLEND LOOKS A BIT POP RICH YET WILL MAINLY
HOLD WITH IT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE W-E SPREAD ON FRONTAL POSITION THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRING A QUICK ROUND OF RAIN. KEPT CEILING CONDITIONS VFR (EXCEPT
TEMPO MVFR AT SBN) DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE AT THE ONSET OF RAIN
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH A WSHFT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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