554  
FXUS63 KIWX 240555  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
1255 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO REMAIN  
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE MODERATING  
TREND WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES FRIDAY. THIS WILL  
BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
LINGERING MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND  
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AROUND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME  
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN WNW FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE  
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NW IN AND SW MI. HOWEVER,  
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED BY MARGINAL 10-12C DELTA T'S AND  
BULK OF MOISTURE BELOW THE -10C LEVEL. THIS POTENTIAL LACK OF  
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION COULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OR JUST  
DRY/CLOUDY/COOL CONDITIONS.  
 
A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW WILL HELP SUSTAIN THERMAL  
TROUGHING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. GOOD MID-UPPER  
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOTED IN MODEL LAND WITH THIS FEATURE,  
THOUGH LACKING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES  
AT BEST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
 
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A NICE MODERATING  
TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN  
NOAM IN PROGRESSIVE/PACIFIC DOMINATE PATTERN. LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER  
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH  
SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO  
OVERACHIEVE.  
 
THE NEXT PACIFIC ORIGIN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN  
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER/SEASONABLE/DRIER CONDITIONS  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN  
INVERSION AND CYCLONIC FLOW. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,  
WE'LL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE 2KFT LANDING MINIMUM CRITERIA  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE  
MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH ARE MORE  
LIKELY TO START AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z, ENHANCED  
PERHAPS BY THE DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL  
LIKELY TREND TOWARDS BKN015 STARTING AROUND 9Z, IF THEY DON'T FALL  
LOWER BEFORE THEN. FOR NOW, KEPT THINGS RIGHT AROUND BKN020, BUT  
WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE THEM DROP BELOW FOR A BIT BEFORE 9Z.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AGD  
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL  
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL  
AVIATION...MCD  
 
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