590  
FXUS63 KIWX 302322  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
722 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM  
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR QUINCY IL AS OF 19Z WILL GRADUALLY EDGE  
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IN BY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN  
OH/LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY AS CLOSED 500 MB LOW WOBBLES EAST THROUGH THE  
OH VALLEY. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT NOW OVER  
CENTRAL IL/IN TO MIX NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER THIS  
AFTN/EVE (SOUTH OF HWY 24). CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION,  
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND DEEP LAYERED FORCING WITHIN A LEADING  
SOUTHERLY LLJ CORE SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS  
(SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE) GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS  
WARM FRONT. THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM FROM  
MARION IN TO LIMA OH (SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24) BTW 20-02Z NEAR WARM  
FRONT GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATICS/LOW LVL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME WEAK MLCAPE INCREASING TO ABOVE 500 J/KG. A BRIEF  
TORNADO/HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE IF ANY LOW  
CENTROID/DISCRETE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAN INTERACT WITH THIS  
WARM FRONT.  
 
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/LLJ WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER TONIGHT-  
FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THUNDER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES.  
UNFORTUNATELY COOL/CLOUDY, AND AT TIMES SHOWERY, CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST IN TRAILING DEFORMATION AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NE IN/NW  
OH/SC LOWER MI WHERE SUBTLE TROWAL/TROUGH FEATURE MAY ALLOW MORE  
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS  
AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WAKE OF SYSTEM  
EXITING TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THE NEXT IN A  
SERIES OF SYSTEMS IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES  
BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND AGAIN TOWARD  
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH  
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT KFA WHERE MORE ROBUST/ELEVATED CONVECTION  
(BRIEF GUSTS > 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL) WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE 00-02Z WINDOW. SHOWERY WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS  
THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDERNEATH WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ROLLER  
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL  
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL  
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page