316  
FXUS63 KLMK 260709  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
309 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PUSH DRY LOW-  
LEVEL AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 30S  
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. LOW  
PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME VERTICALLY  
STACKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY, AND TRY TO DRAW MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIP SHIELD  
WILL STRUGGLE, REMAINING SUPPRESSED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY  
THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN FINALLY SPREADING LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL  
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN A  
QUARTER INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WESTERN  
KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS WE EXPECT THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT,  
AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL, WITH MOST  
AREAS REACHING THE 60S, BUT COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL  
KY WHERE RAIN/CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING.  
 
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS A SHORTWAVE KICKER IS  
ALREADY DIVING INTO WYOMING AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IT ALONG.  
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY  
COULD PHASE JUST ENOUGH WITH THIS IMPULSE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED  
SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MAX HEATING. SHOULD BE EVEN  
LIGHTER AND LESSER COVERAGE THAN ANYTHING TODAY GIVEN LACKLUSTER  
SUPPLY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
DEEP UPPER TROF RETREATS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND  
WE FINALLY START TO SEE HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE  
ON SATURDAY. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND HARD TO TIME  
IMPULSES COULD SUPPORT THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THIS  
TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP THEM BARELY MENTIONABLE AS 20 POPS AND LIMITED  
TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE WILL JUST  
KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REALLY STARTS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE  
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AS CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOW  
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST YET AS  
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH WITH THE SFC HIGH  
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  
 
ONCE THAT COLD MORNING IS OUT OF THE WAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND  
WITH TEMPS FINALLY RECOVERING ABOVE CLIMO BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  
MOISTURE RETURN COULD DRAG RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER  
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE SYSTEMS START TO IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN CONUS  
RIDGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. A WEAK  
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BWG, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE,  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL FEATURE MID LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RAS  
LONG TERM...RAS  
AVIATION...ZT  
 
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