051  
FXUS63 KLMK 291043  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
643 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
DEEP AND OCCLUDED LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY MEANDER INTO  
EASTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING  
INTO THE SYSTEM WILL STAY SETTLED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY,  
GIVING US A NICE MEMORIAL DAY FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT.  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AS STEADY SW WIND, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO  
REACH THE 79-84 DEGREE MARK.  
 
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL  
ROTATE THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH, ALONG WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED  
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS HINT AT JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS  
FEATURE TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES  
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR  
NORTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET, BUT THINK MAINLY  
SHOWER CHANCES AS THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MEAGER INSTABILITY.  
 
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH SOME SPRINKLES  
POSSIBLY SINKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL  
HAVE TO WATCH FOR REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR  
EASTERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR E/SE, BUT OVERALL  
COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY LOW SO WILL MENTION MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY  
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.  
   
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...  
 
WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK,  
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH  
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BEFORE DAWN, AND OVER KENTUCKY AS WE MOVE THROUGH  
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTER LOWS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE,  
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE ROUGHLY 75-80.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD  
DURING THIS TIME, KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY. OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE MOSTLY  
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THURSDAY  
NIGHT LOWS WILL JUMP ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
 
FRIDAY - SUNDAY...  
 
AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND COULD UNFOLD ONCE AGAIN AS SEVERAL MOISTURE  
RICH DISTURBANCES TRAVEL ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP W-E BENEATH  
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT'S EARLY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WOULD  
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A WEAK-MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,  
ALL IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE. THESE FACTORS  
COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY W-E BOUNDARY BRING CONCERN THAT WE  
COULD RUN INTO A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO AS PRECIP EFFICIENT  
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WE'VE GOT A LONG WAY TO GO,  
BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S  
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
HAVE SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND LEX THIS MORNING, BUT SO FAR NOT AT THE  
OTHER SITES. CIRRUS SHIELD NOT HELPING IDENTIFY BOUNDARIES OF THESE  
CLOUDS, BUT SURFACE STATIONS SHOWING LOWER CIGS AROUND BWG AS WELL,  
SO HAVE AN HOUR EARLY ON IN THIS FORECAST WITH LOW-END MVFR  
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A  
STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST NORTH  
OF SDF THIS EVENING, BUT THINK CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF  
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM........BJS  
LONG TERM.........BJS  
AVIATION...RJS  
 
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