767  
FXUS63 KLMK 181133  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
633 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
   
FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
 
RAIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE  
REGION, THOUGH THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS  
EAST CENTRAL KY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING  
HOURS, GENERALLY TO LOWER THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BOARD. IN  
ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE ARE  
RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
   
..GUSTY WINDS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
 
 
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND  
MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
CURRENTLY THE RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL KY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME  
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY MORE TOWARDS  
DAYBREAK. IN GENERAL TODAY, POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK A BIT DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, COVERAGE OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE  
ELEVATED IN NATURE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, SOME  
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH  
DAMAGING WINDS, MAINLY WEST OF I-65. FURTHER EAST, INSTABILITY WILL  
BE DECREASING AS THE STORMS APPROACH, SO THE THREAT WILL BE LESS.  
STILL, WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELD AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY TODAY. WE ARE ALREADY  
SEEING SOME GUSTS TO JUST OVER 30 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED  
THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SUSTAINED WIND  
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, WITH THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND MIXING OCCURRING A BIT DEEPER, WIND GUSTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF AND  
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 45 MPH CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE AND A FEW  
GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE PEAK TIME  
FRAME FOR THE HIGHER GUSTS LOOKS TO BE 2-8 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT  
QUICKLY FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SO WILL KEEP THE EXPIRATION  
TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AT 06Z.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE  
MID 60S. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE  
FRONT WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH  
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
 
THIS NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE REGION A MAJORITY OF THE TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO  
PAINT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, IT IS THE ONLY MODEL ADVERTISING THIS AT THIS TIME, SO WILL  
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THIS WILL, HOWEVER, BRING ANOTHER  
SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO  
THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. THANKSGIVING MORNING LOOKS  
TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE  
MID 20S. EARLY BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS SHOULD BUNDLE UP AS FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
 
CHALLENGING FLYING CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTING...THROUGHOUT THIS  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE  
TERMINALS BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS,  
WITH SOME HIGH END IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS  
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BUT  
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30KT OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE  
DAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN GUSTS OVER  
40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHARP AND WILL  
SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR SEVERAL  
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO SLACKEN  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR  
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.  
 
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR  
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...EER  
SHORT TERM...EER  
LONG TERM...EER  
AVIATION...13  
 
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