389  
FXUS63 KLMK 172305  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
705 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
 
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT IS IN FULL SWING AND  
AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN  
KY AND INTO WESTERN KY. CONVECTION FIRED ABOUT AN HOUR FASTER THAN  
YESTERDAY. KY MESONET TEMPERATURES HOW MOST AREAS EAST OF US 27/127  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WERE SOLIDLY IN THE  
LOWER 90S WEST OF US 27/127.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE DOWN IN THE HERITAGE CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL KY...ROUGHLY IN  
AREAS FROM GLASGOW SOUTHWEST TOWARD RUSSELLVILLE. IN THIS AREA, WE  
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
AREA WILL MAX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE  
FROM ABOUT 89 TO 94 IN MOST AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE  
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 80S  
BY MID EVENING. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR  
CALM.  
 
FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED. THOUGH, WE WILL  
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE AREA TOMORROW, SO WE THINK THE  
DIURNAL CU WILL GO UP A LITTLE FASTER. MOST CAMS SHOW ISOLATED  
CONVECTION THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF A LINE  
FROM GLASGOW, KY TO TELL CITY, IN. HIGHS AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE  
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION  
OF THE FORECAST. BUT AFTER A HOT TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN  
REACHING 95-100, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WORK WEEK BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT WON'T LESSEN THE HUMIDITY, HOWEVER.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS DRY TO BEGIN THE LONG  
TERM. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE HOLDING FIRM OVER THE  
EASTERN U.S. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL  
FLATTENING OF THAT RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
PROPAGATES OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY  
THAT BEGINS NEAR THE MICHIGAN-INDIANA BORDER WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY LIMITED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, WITH  
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL  
AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE.  
 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COVERAGE. PWATS ARE  
FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EXCEED 2  
INCHES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE CONCERNS LATER  
IN THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING DOWN THIS EVENING AND SHOULD  
GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWG/HNB AFTER  
MIDNIGHT, BUT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW  
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAF  
AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MJ  
LONG TERM...EBW  
AVIATION...DM  
 
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