277  
FXUS63 KPAH 232330  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF'S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY  
LOWER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW  
HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH HEAT  
INDICES WILL STILL NUDGE 100 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN AREAS EACH  
AFTERNOON, THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH THE HWO IF NECESSARY.  
 
THE EARLY MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS QUITE A BIT  
STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED THAN FORECAST BY MAN OR MACHINE. NOT  
ONLY DID IT PRODUCE SCATTERED AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE, BUT THE  
OUTFLOW SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR  
REGION EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES AS OF 19Z  
WERE RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS  
BORDER COUNTIES, SO THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THERE.  
ELSEWHERE, THE WARNING WAS CANCELLED SINCE HEAT INDICES WERE  
GENERALLY 10 TO 18 DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY.  
 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE  
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH WILL BE JUST ENOUGH  
TO TURN WINDS INTO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT, IT  
WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND  
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN CHECK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL  
BE AROUND 90, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. ANY ISOLATED DIURNAL  
STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN  
SOUTHERN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY OR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
90S, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE  
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SAME AREA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY, THEN OUR APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY  
BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING  
OF THE FRONT, BUT GFS IS MUCH FASTER PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GFS INDICATES GOOD CHANCES  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON DECENT CHANCES UNTIL  
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TIMING  
UNCERTAINTIES, WENT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH LIKELY POPS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO PUSH PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE  
REGION, WITH GFS HAVING US DRY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY, AND ECMWF  
LINGERING QPF IN MAINLY OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING NORTH TO  
SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LINGERING POPS ONLY  
IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY.  
 
A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER DEW POINTS  
IN THE LOWER 70S LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE DEW POINTS  
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH READINGS  
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE WEEK WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH WEEKEND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT  
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS WITH SOME IFR VSBYS  
ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT INCOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL  
FOCUS SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG IT OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED  
WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND THE ANTECEDENT WET GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS  
FROM RAINFALL THIS MORNING, WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FOG FORMATION.  
OTHERWISE, SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS QUITE SMALL AT ANY  
ONE LOCATION. SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO FORM BY  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW  
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100-  
107>112-114.  
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KYZ001>003-006-008-009-012-017-022.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SP  
SHORT TERM...MY  
LONG TERM...RST  
AVIATION...SP  
 
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