443  
FXUS63 KPAH 201947  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
247 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO END THE WORK WEEK, AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH. DESPITE THE  
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES  
REACHING INTO THE 60S, WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL, BUT FEELS MUCH  
BETTER THAN YESTERDAY! WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN, WE  
HAVE HAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND 20S  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN WE EXPERIENCED LAST  
NIGHT, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FROST IN  
SHELTERED LOCALES ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR.  
 
THE AFORMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR  
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE  
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY, AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH  
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL  
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING SOMEWHERE INTO  
THE WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLIDE BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN LOOKS TO SPREAD  
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING, AND GRADUALLY  
PUSH EASTWARD INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK  
OF THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL DICTATE HOW FAR NORTH THE BULK  
OF THE RAIN WILL GET. BUT GENERALLY, HIGHEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLY  
EXCEEDING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE DOWN CLOSE TO THE AR AND TN  
BORDERS, WHILE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR MAY BE LUCKY TO RECEIVE A  
TENTH OF AN INCH. OUT OF THE 12Z MODELS, THE ECMWF WAS THE WETTEST  
WHILE THE GFS WAS THE DRIEST. COMPARING ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (0.50" TO 1.75") WAS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN  
THE GFS ENSEMBLE (0.10" TO 1.00").  
 
WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING ANY INSTABILITY, EVEN  
ELEVATED, TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AROUND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN  
ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE CHOICE DAY OF THE WEEKEND  
WILL DEFINITELY BE SATURDAY!  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A 500 MB  
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN STATES. OUR  
REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
 
ON MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH  
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN  
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING OUR REGION  
TO DRY OUT FOR A SHORT TIME. AN AMPLIFYING 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL  
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING  
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY-OUT IS FORECAST ON  
THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGWAVE  
TROUGH POSITION ON FRIDAY.  
 
THE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY, GENERALLY IN  
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. E/NE WINDS  
AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS  
EVENING/TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 7 TO 10 KTS  
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL SLOWLY SEE  
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING  
IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SP  
LONG TERM...MY  
AVIATION...SP  
 
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