974
FXUS63 KPAH 291020
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY ACTIVE AND WET WEEK IN STORE FOR THE QUAD STATE.
- SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
- A MAJOR SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAJOR CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, ANOTHER ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES
AND A SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FORM THE
SOUTH. ONLY LOOKING AT AROUND 200-300 J/KG OF INSTABILITY, SO THE
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
THERMODYNAMICS: THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT UP FRONT, THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
A BUST WOULD BE A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES/INSTABILITY DOWN, THAT COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH THAT MENTIONED, IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THAT REMAINS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY. A CAP IN PLACE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION VERY LOW, BUT MAY END UP
TRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION. AGAIN, THAT WOULD BE
WHERE CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER; HOWEVER, AN EML DOES APPEAR TO
BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY. ANALYZING THE SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO 60S BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE
CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT OR AT LEAST HAVE A FEW BREAKS. THAT IS A BIG
CONCERN AS INSTABILITY WOULD INCREASE VERY QUICKLY WITH ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SURFACE
BASED CAPE (INSTABILITY) REACHING THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE
NBM SHOWING THAT PROBABILITY AT OR AROUND 95% FROM 3 PM - 10 PM
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT TOO SURPRISING
WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7.5-8.5 C/KM (VERY STEEP) AS THE BASE OF A
TROUGH ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICS: AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL AID IN
BROAD SCALE LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. IF THE CAP REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD FOR
THE FRONT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BREAK THE CAP. A MID-LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AT OR AROUND 55 KTS,
GIVING WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE. A GOOD
PORTION OF THAT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ORTHOGONAL TO THE LINE OF
STORMS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM SHEAR IS ALSO
SUPPORTIVE WITH ABOUT 35-40KTS OF SHEAR LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE
LINE OF STORMS. HELICITY VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 300 M2/S2, WHICH WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
BOTH DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE SUPPORTED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED RESIDENCE TIME WITH STRONGER SHEAR. ANY
DISCRETE CELLS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR MUCH STRONGER/LONGER LIVED
TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. AS THE LINE OF STORMS CONGEALS/GROWS UPSCALE THROUGH THE
EVENING, EXPECT SOME BOWING SEGMENTS/QLCS TORNADOES TO BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS THE LINE TREKS EAST THROUGH THE CWA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
ALONG THE LINE WOULD BE ANY SEGMENT THAT ORIENTS MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THAT IS EVEN MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND 4 PM OR SO ACROSS SEMO THROUGH ABOUT 2-3AM
AS IT TREKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
CURRENT ENHANCED RISK SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE MENTION OF POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK SEEMS VERY REAL AS MENTIONED IN SPC'S
DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY, YET ANOTHER RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW INTENSIFIES
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND INCREASED SHEAR ONCE
AGAIN. SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA PLACED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON DAY 5. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES!! THAT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
RIVER FLOODING. THE WPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT INCREASED IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW. STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS ON THAT
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT EACH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY AT TIMES, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 5SM OR GREATER. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS
UPDATE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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