970
FXUS63 KPAH 072326
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS. NO CHANGE TO THE 145
PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION SECTION.
DISCUSSION
NICE SLY GUSTS INTO/THRU THE 20S KTS TODAY WILL RELAX WITH DIURNAL
WANE IN PRESSURE/MIXING FIELD. AOA MOS TEMPS NOW SHOULD REPEAT
TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
INCREASING MRH FIELD MON-TUE TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL
POP EVENT...AS SRN WAVE STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST. THAT MEANS BEST
CHC POP WILL COME WITH FROPA/SYS PASSAGE MON NIGHT-TUE...BUT
SMALLISH AT THAT. TUE NIGHT ALL MODELS PULL THE SYS OUT EXCEPT THE
NAM...WHICH IS 3-6 HRS SLOWER IN DOING THE SAME. COLLAB CONSENSUS
IS TO END POPS BY 00Z WED SO WE'LL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FINISHES OUT THE WORKWEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM INCREASES MOISTURE AND
ULTIMATELY REINTRODUCES A POP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
PROFILER AND VWP DATA FROM REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED WIND SPEEDS HAD
DECREASED IN THE LOWEST 3K/FT. THIS COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING
WEAK INVERSION MEANS WINDS SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR TONIGHT. WINDS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY EITHER...AS LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE
SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDING DATA IN THE MIXED LAYER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
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