177  
FXUS63 KPAH 302336 AAB  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
636 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, MADE SOME  
ADDITIONAL LOCAL EXTENSION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103 INTO  
THE REMAINDER OF THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KENTUCKY, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THOSE KY BORDER COUNTIES WITH SOUTHWEST INDIANA.  
 
ANTICIPATED THAT THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN UPDRAFTS AND STORM  
INTENSITY NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA. HOWEVER, THE TIME  
FRAME IS ABOUT AN HOUR LATER THAN ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE SLOW  
FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND THE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA ADDED EARLIER IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS CLUSTERS IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE  
REQUIRED AN AREAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103 INTO  
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING A FEW MORE COUNTIES  
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE WITH HAIL REACHING AT  
OR ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA ALONG THE NOSE OF THE NARROW PLUME OF  
DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PENNYRILE OF WEST  
KENTUCKY. IN ADDITION, WINDS SHOULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH  
THE STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY  
DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PANNING OUT WITH SUB-SEVERE CRITERIA  
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LINE OF  
CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WIND FIELDS MAY BE MORE  
CONDUCIVE FOR BETTER DOWNDRAFTS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND AS FAR  
EAST AS THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WINDS MAY  
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM CDT. SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL IS A  
LITTLE MORE ELUSIVE, BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR STORMS THAT  
APPROACH THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
UTILIZED THE 12KM NAM-WRF/CMCNH AS BASE TEMPLATES FOR DRY SLOT AND  
LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE COLD CORE LOW  
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA (MAINLY SOUTHEAST IL, SOUTHWEST IN, AND  
NORTHWEST KY) NEAR DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS  
WITHIN THE AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS AN ISOLATED  
HAIL REPORT (LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE  
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
OTHERWISE, FROM THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOW HALT ANY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WFO PAH  
CWA. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW, TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN +/- 3 DEGREES FROM NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF  
YEAR.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 
WE WILL HAVE TWO STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION. THE FIRST STORM  
SYSTEM WILL PASS EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH, BUT BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE  
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ASSOCIATED  
DEFORMATION ZONE. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH  
THIS STORM SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS EARLY  
AS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY IN THE EAST.  
 
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, AND  
WILL BE PASSING EAST SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE  
STORMS, BUT THE STORM TRACK MAY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.  
THUNDER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED  
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL  
REPRESENT AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT, AS IT CARVES OUT A LARGER-SCALE  
TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM  
SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL  
TREND COOLER DOWN TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN TSRA AT KOWB EARLY, THEN VFR CIGS  
BECOMING MVFR AT ALL SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AS WRAP AROUND  
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. -RA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-16Z AT  
KEVV/KOWB. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL  
BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE FIRST 2-4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND  
GENERALLY BECOME WESTERLY AOB 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM...DRS  
AVIATION...JP  
 
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