408
FXUS63 KPAH 162013
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS ARE SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TIMING IMPULSES
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS A LITTLE OUT OF
SYNCH AND WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE LEAD
IMPULSE. HOWEVER...WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO REALIZE IT IS IN DOUBT...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE IMPULSE
AND PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER
IMPULSE WILL STAY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS NOW ARE KEEPING THE NEXT IMPULSE OUT
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. ON SUNDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE MIXING DOWN OF
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CHALLENGING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...DECIDED TO GO A BIT BELOW RATHER MILD LOOKING GUIDANCE.
WITH DECENT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY...AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S LOOKS GOOD. GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE COOLER NAM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...AND THEN THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON MONDAY...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS ANY LINGERING QPF
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
FOR MONDAY...AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN. ON THURSDAY...ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...SHOWING DECENT QPF ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. GFS HOLDS OFF PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH MORE OF A COMPROMISE...AND JUST INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW ON THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STAYED WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WENT A LITTLE
BELOW THE VERY WARM GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW...BUT
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM.
AVIATION
LITTLE OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION THROUGH SATURDAY. STRATOCU AT 4-6KFT
OVER WEST KENTUCKY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED 5-6KFT
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY WILL INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE
WEST MID-MORNING SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
.SHORT TERM..DRS
LONG TERM
RST
AVIATION
DRS
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