384  
FXUS63 KPAH 290650  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
150 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY,  
PROVIDING GENERALLY TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ENERGY ALOFT  
SPOKING BASE OF LONG WAVE TROF WILL DEVELOP/DRIVE A COLD FRONT  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH  
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A  
MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL. THIS CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  
 
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
AGAIN RIDGES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO TUESDAY. AND AGAIN,  
MORE LONG WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SPOKES THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF AND  
DEVELOPS/USHERS ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. POPS RETURN, AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH  
THE BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS, ONCE AGAIN, COME  
WITH A BROADER, MORE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH'S MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT.  
 
TEMPS HOVER FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND FROM THE UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S, THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS RIGHT AROUND THE  
CLIMO NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SFC HIGH WILL STILL BE ON  
ITS WAY EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY ON  
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TO THE  
AREA. WE HAVE TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE INCOMING  
THAT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ONE IMPULSE  
THAT HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, ORIGINATES  
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA ON  
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY  
ACROSS TEXAS BUT THIS MAY NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT  
OR FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THESE TWO FEATURES, MODELS ARE  
NOT REALLY EXCITED AS FAR AS QPF PROSPECTS RIGHT NOW BUT THAT WILL  
LIKELY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE  
CATEGORY FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER  
TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO IMPACT OUR REGION, PROVIDING BETTER,  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE UPPER FLOW  
PATTERN GETS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING TO DECIPHER AS WE GET INTO  
THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, AS MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR  
SOLUTIONS. BUT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE IN FULL FORCE.  
FIGURING OUT BETTER TIMING AS WELL AS COVERAGE/LOCATION WILL BE WHAT  
NEEDS TO BE FINED TUNED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PART DURING THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL YIELD TO A  
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY OUR  
NORTHERN TERMINALS (KEVV/KOWB) THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY  
HAVE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE  
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS/CIGS OR AT LEAST WARRANT A VICINITY MENTION  
AT NEXT ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, AFTER AN EARLY AM BOUT OF SHALLOW FOG  
AND ITS POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS, IT'LL BE A GENERALLY TRANQUIL VFR  
DAY.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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