818  
FXUS63 KPAH 211131  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
631 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING  
AS A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASES ESE INTO NRN MO  
AND DECENT CYCLONIC/DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP TO IT'S  
SOUTHEAST. SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SOME MARGINALLY DECENT SHEAR WITH  
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR PUSHING 30-40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER MORNING PRECIP EXITS TODAY, SHOULD  
SEE SBCAPES UP CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A  
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER.  
 
STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER SE MO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF  
THE SFC FRONT, AND PROGRESS IN A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LINE  
STRUCTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER AS THE AFTERNOON  
PROGRESSES. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT (LITTLE OVERALL TURNING  
OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT) SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE  
HODOGRAPH ENVIRONMENT, SUGGESTING MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODE WITH  
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS HERE AND THERE. COULD ALSO BE SOME  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS SUCH, SPC HAS MAINTAINED ITS MARGINAL  
RISK AREA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT EVENT THOUGH, AT LEAST NOT AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE  
INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID/UPPER FEATURE, BUT THE  
STRONG/SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH/EAST OF  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SERVE  
TO HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY LOOK TO OFFER MORE OF A REPRIEVE (THOUGH  
BRIEF) IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. COULD END UP BEING THE  
PICK TIME FRAME OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR THOSE CONSIDERING  
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER.  
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR 80 NORTH/MID 80S SOUTH.  
 
HOWEVER, THINGS SHOULD TURN MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN, ESP LATER  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS  
THE REGION, AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTS EAST TOWARD  
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT MCS POTENTIAL WITH THIS SET UP...ESP INSTABILITY REMAINS  
SUFFICIENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS DAYTIME CONVECTION OUT  
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
TO ROUND OUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK DEPARTING  
SURFACE FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR CHANCES OF RAIN  
ON SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN  
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY,  
WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S WE  
SHOULD EXPERIENCE ON SUNDAY, TO PROBABLY THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90  
DEGREES BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE  
AREA AS WELL, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER SOME  
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. BUT THE CONSENSUS IS TO LEAVE ANY  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT FOR NOW.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL  
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER  
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFYS. THIS WILL ALLOW  
FOR THE HEAT TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS  
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD  
WILL BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.  
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAS IT IMPACTING OUR  
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN  
INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO WHERE THE THIS  
UPPER SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MISS US TO  
THE NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FOR NOW AND  
MONITOR TRENDS WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
LOOK FOR IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE 12-15Z ESP WHERE  
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCUR. SHOULD SEE A BREAK TOWARD LOWER VFR  
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AOB 10  
KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY EVENING BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING TO GO  
MUCH MUCH THAN VCTS FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GM  
SHORT TERM...GM  
LONG TERM...CW  
AVIATION...GM  
 
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