265
FGUS73 KGID 141246 CCA
ESFGID
NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019-
KSC147-KSC163-051800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
..2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HASTINGS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE
PLATTE...LOUP...LITTLE BLUE...AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE SOLOMON RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES ARE INCLUDED.
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...
..HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...MARCH 15TH THROUGH JUNE 14TH
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH
MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED
ON SOIL MOISTURE, SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE, STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS, AND
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OF FUTURE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF MARCH GENERALLY FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND THEN TRENDS TOWARDS EQUAL CHANCES
THEREAFTER AS WE HEAD THROUGH APRIL, MAY, AND INTO EARLY JUNE.
THEREFORE, OVERALL THROUGH MOST OF THE SPRING WE DON'T SEE STRONG
SIGNALS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
RELATIVE TO NORMAL. THEREFORE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR SOME OF OUR
AREA TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DROUGHT THIS SPRING (DESPITE OFFICIAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOKS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVEMENT).
THERE ARE SEVERAL PRIMARY FACTORS LEADING TO OUR BELOW AVERAGE
THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING.
- THE LOCAL SNOWPACK IS NEGLIGIBLE TO NON-EXISTENT.
- THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IS NEAR NORMAL,
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF RESERVOIR CAPACITY.
- LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS JUST OVER 60 PERCENT CAPACITY AND HAS PLENTY OF
STORAGE SPACE AVAILABLE.
- SOIL MOISTURE IS DRIER THAN NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS GIVEN THE
ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. WE DO HAVE SOME LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE COME OUT OF THE DROUGHT, BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS SOIL MOISTURE
IS JUST NEAR NORMAL AT BEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SOIL IS STILL
CAPABLE OF ABSORBING PLENTY OF MOISTURE THUS LIMITING SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
- CURRENT STREAMFLOW ON OUR BIGGEST RIVERS IS AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL.
- THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK OF APRIL THROUGH JUNE INDICATES EQUAL
CHANCES WITH NO STRONG INDICATORS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
STILL POSSIBLE EVEN IN DRY YEARS AND WHEN THE OVERALL RISK OF
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW. ISOLATED HEAVY SPRING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW ("METEOROLOGICAL WINTER" 2023-24
PRECIPITATION REVIEW)...
FOLLOWING IS AN OVERVIEW/RECAP OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS THE
NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA DURING THE RECENTLY-ENDED "METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER" 2023-24 SEASON (WHICH CONSISTED OF THE CALENDAR MONTHS OF
DEC-JAN-FEB). PLEASE NOTE THAT OUR 30-COUNTY COVERAGE AREA INCLUDES
24 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SIX COUNTIES IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS EVIDENCED IN THE DATA PRESENTED IN THE TABLE BELOW (AND SUPPORTED
BY AHPS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS), THIS METEOROLOGICAL WINTER FEATURED
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE
COVERAGE AREA (DESPITE THE LAST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY ACTUALLY
BEING VERY DRY). MORE SPECIFICALLY, MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2.00-4.00" OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING
MELTED SNOW). THIS EQUATES TO MOST OF OUR RECEIVING 100-200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FELL AS SNOW DURING JANUARY,
QUITE A BIT OF IT ACTUALLY FELL AS RAIN DURING DECEMBER AND EARLY
FEBRUARY. ALTHOUGH NOT A LARGE/SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE, THE OVERALL-
WETTEST LOCATIONS MAINLY FAVORED EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA, WITH THE OVERALL-DRIEST LOCATIONS MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN FACT, OF MAINLY OUR FAR WESTERN
COVERAGE AREA (INCLUDING FURNAS COUNTY) ACTUALLY RECEIVED SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WINTER PRECIPITATION. PER OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER AND AIRPORT STATIONS, A FEW OF THE WETTEST LOCATIONS IN OUR
AREA FROM DEC-FEB INCLUDED: PLAINVILLE KS 4WNW (5.17"), SMITH CENTER
KS (5.03") AND HEBRON (4.42"). IN FACT, THIS ENDED UP BEING THE 2ND-
WETTEST WINTER ON RECORD AT BOTH THE PLAINVILLE AND SMITH CENTER
STATIONS. MEANWHILE, A FEW OF THE DRIEST OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES
IN OUR AREA THIS WINTER ENDED UP BEING: CAMBRIDGE (1.51"), EDISON
(1.97") AND GREELEY (2.04").
-- METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2023-24 DROUGHT RECAP (PER WEEKLY UPDATES
BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR/USDM):
THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER
(AND IN PARTICULAR THE FACT THAT MUCH OF IT FELL AS RAIN AND
EFFICIENTLY SOAKED INTO THE SOIL), THERE WAS AN UNUSUALLY-
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA FROM DEC-FEB. AT THE START OF DECEMBER, 64% OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA WAS UNDER DROUGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MODERATE
(D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4), INCLUDING 36% OF THE AREA IN WORST-OFF
D3+D4 (PRIMARILY FOCUSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN NEBRASKA AND ALSO IN
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). HOWEVER, THE WINTER MONTHS ONLY
BROUGHT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT, AND AS OF THE FEB. 29TH USDM ISSUANCE
OUR ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA IS VOID OF ALL EXTREME (D3) AND EXCEPTIONAL
(D4) DROUGHT CATEGORIES. THAT BEING SAID, HALF OF OUR AREA REMAINS
UNDER MODERATE (D1) OR SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT, WITH D2 DOMINATING MOST
LOCAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE "BEST NEWS
OF ALL" DEPARTMENT, 31% OF OUR COVERAGE AREA IS CURRENTLY INDICATED
TO BE VOID OF ALL DROUGHT CATEGORIES WHATSOEVER (EVEN ABNORMALLY DRY
D0), INCLUDING LARGE PARTS OF SEVERAL COUNTIES MAINLY WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
THE TABLE BELOW HIGHLIGHTS PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2023-24, COVERING
DEC. 1 - FEB. 29. DATA IS SHOWN FOR JUST A SMALL SAMPLING OF
OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS REPRESENTING VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR
AREA, ALONG WITH A FEW PRIMARY AIRPORT SITES.
LOCATION PRECIP DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
NORTH CENTRAL KS DEC 1-FEB 29 FROM NORMAL NORMAL
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
BELOIT 4.03 +1.49 159
PHILLIPSBURG 3.07 +0.79 134
PLAINVILLE 4WNW 5.17 +2.75 214
SMITH CENTER 5.03 +2.95 242
LOCATION PRECIP DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NE DEC 1-FEB 29 FROM NORMAL NORMAL
--------------- -------- ------ ---------
CAMBRIDGE 1.51 -0.21 88
ELWOOD 8S 2.08 +0.41 124
GRAND ISLAND ARPT 3.50 +1.31 160
HASTINGS AIRPORT 3.28 +1.12 152
HEBRON 4.42 +1.75 166
HOLDREGE 2.80 +0.84 143
KEARNEY AIRPORT 2.51 +0.73 141
LEXINGTON 6SSE 2.24 +0.70 145
ORD 2.93 +0.95 148
OSCEOLA 3.78 +1.25 149
SUPERIOR 3.61 +1.07 142
ST. PAUL 2.33 +0.22 110
YORK 3N 3.59 +0.82 130
...WEATHER/CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE NEXT
THREE MONTHS...
IT'S NOW TIME TO SWITCH GEARS AND LOOK AHEAD TO EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPECTED CLIMATE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS:
THE NEXT WEEK (THROUGH MARCH 21):
ACCORDING TO OUR LATEST OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE
RIGHT AWAY TODAY/THURSDAY (AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN) AND PERHAPS AGAIN
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (MARCH 20-21), WHEN OUR NEXT/HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES MIGHT ENTER THE PICTURE. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
SEASONABLE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S/60S WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
NEXT WEEK.
TWO WEEKS OUT (MARCH 21-27):
LOOKING OUT JUST A BIT FARTHER IN TIME, THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CALLS FOR NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD
COOLER THAN NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. PRECIPITATION-
WISE, OUR ENTIRE AREA FEATURES A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS.
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MARCH-MAY):
TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SPRING MONTHS OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY AS A
WHOLE, THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) THREE-MONTH
OUTLOOK (ISSUED FEB. 15TH) INDICATES A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY EXPECTATIONS OF A SOMEWHAT-
WET MARCH), ALONG WITH "EQUAL CHANCES" FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL OR NEAR NORMAL. THIS MEANS THAT THERE ARE NO
CLEAR SIGNALS IN CURRENT LONGER-RANGE FORECAST DATA TO LEAN TOWARD
ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OVER ANOTHER. BASED ON 30-YEAR NORMALS, TOTAL
MARCH-MAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA
TYPICALLY RANGES FROM 7-10", WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 183 AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR.
U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK (UPDATED BY CPC ON FEB. 29TH AND VALID
THROUGH THE END OF MAY):
GOING HAND IN HAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING, THIS OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THOSE
PARTS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER ANY DROUGHT CATEGORY
(MODERATE DROUGHT D1 OR WORSE), WILL EITHER SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OR
PERHAPS HAVE DROUGHT REMOVED ALTOGETHER.
(THE LONGER RANGE FORECASTS ISSUED BY CPC AND REFERENCED IN THE
PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS ARE BASED ON OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS, AS WELL AS FORECASTER EXPERTISE, AND TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
ONGOING GLOBAL/TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC STATES, RECENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA, SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, ETC. MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THESE LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
THE CPC WEB SITE AT: HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV)
..LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 28 40 <5 6 <5 5
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON 9.0 12.0 13.6 : 11 23 <5 7 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
DARR 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 31 34 23 26 15 16
OVERTON 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 27 30 <5 5 <5 <5
KEARNEY 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 17 18 8 8 <5 <5
:WOOD RIVER
GIBBON 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 29 36 24 32 21 25
ALDA 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 36 44 33 37 22 28
WOOD RIVER DIVERS 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 8 24 6 13 5 10
:PLATTE RIVER
GRAND ISLAND 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 32 32 19 25 17 18
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 38 45 9 14 4 5
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER 16.5 18.0 21.0 : 12 27 6 10 <5 <5
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 19 26 5 7 <5 <5
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 5 9 <5 7 <5 <5
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON 9.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 6 11 <5 6 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 12 18 8 9 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE 3.1 3.9 4.5 7.8 10.6 12.5 13.7
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE 2.9 2.9 3.2 5.3 8.5 10.0 13.4
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 7.1 9.3 11.2
:PLATTE RIVER
DARR 6.8 7.6 8.5 10.4 12.5 15.2 16.3
OVERTON 3.8 3.9 4.4 5.7 7.8 10.8 11.9
KEARNEY 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.6 6.1 7.9 8.3
:WOOD RIVER
GIBBON 4.2 4.2 5.1 9.8 15.9 17.6 18.3
ALDA 4.5 4.5 5.0 8.5 12.1 13.0 13.4
WOOD RIVER DIVERS 10.9 10.9 12.0 14.8 17.5 19.2 21.4
:PLATTE RIVER
GRAND ISLAND 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.1
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.9 5.4 7.7 10.0
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER 6.0 6.9 10.4 12.5 15.2 16.7 18.4
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL 2.8 3.1 3.9 6.5 8.5 12.1 13.9
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.1 5.7 8.1
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 6.4
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON 2.5 2.7 3.7 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.3
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA 5.2 5.2 5.9 6.7 8.0 8.8 10.7
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA 3.9 4.1 6.2 9.5 12.5 15.6 18.4
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
DEWEESE 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON
GLADE 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
:BOW CREEK
STOCKTON 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0
:PLATTE RIVER
DARR 4.9 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
OVERTON 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
KEARNEY 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
:WOOD RIVER
GIBBON 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
ALDA 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
WOOD RIVER DIVERS 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7
:PLATTE RIVER
GRAND ISLAND 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
RAVENNA 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
:MUD CREEK
SWEETWATER 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT MICHAEL 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
:NORTH LOUP RIVER
SAINT PAUL 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
:CEDAR RIVER
FULLERTON 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
:LOUP RIVER
GENOA 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
:BEAVER CREEK
GENOA 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
..FUTURE OUTLOOKS
THIS MARKS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2024.
VISIT OUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE WEBSITE FOR CURRENT WEATHER/HYDROLOGICAL
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS
ADDITIONAL CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE REGION CAN BE OBTAINED
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER: HTTPS://HPRCC.UNL.EDU
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS CAN BE FOUND
FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
FURTHER INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
HTTPS://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
HTTPS://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
INFORMATION ON MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/RESOURCES/DATA-AND-REPORTS/SNOW-AND-WATER-
INTERACTIVE-MAP
NWS AHPS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP
NATIONAL SNOW ANALYSIS PAGE CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV
SOIL MOISTURE:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING
RESERVOIR LEVELS:
WWW.USBR.GOV/GP/HYDROMET/CURRES_GOOGLE.HTM
FOR TRAINING ON NWS RIVER FORECAST GRAPHICS:
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSIBYJ8EZY0VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GID
FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
WESELY/PFANNKUCH
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