168  
FGUS73 KGLD 152203  
ESFGLD  
 
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
302 PM MST THU FEBRUARY 15 2018  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK USE THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR  
RIVERS LOCATED  
- IN YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO  
- IN DUNDY, HITCHCOCK, AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA  
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES ARE  
DELINEATED BY GREELEY, WICHITA, LOGAN, GOVE, GRAHAM, AND NORTON  
COUNTIES.  
THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE  
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER  
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER  
- BEAVER, SAPPA, AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS  
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER  
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 15 THROUGH MARCH 1, 2018.  
 
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED  
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,  
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.  
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION. THUS, IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THEN  
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF  
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS  
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION, OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER WITH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA RECEIVING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN COMPARISON TO THIS  
TIME LAST YEAR, MORE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THE FAR  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GOODLAND HSA HAS A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW  
COVER. THE LATEST CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR INDEX  
(WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS THAT THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST  
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE DROUGHT WITH MOST OF THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF YUMA COUNTY EXTENDING THROUGH DUNDY  
INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF HITCHCOCK COUNTY IS CURRENTLY  
EXPERIENCING NO DROUGHT.  
 
NOAA'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)(WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)  
FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH MARCH 1.  
 
RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 21 TO 51 PERCENT OF  
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST  
KANSAS, HUGH BUTLER LAKE, ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHWEST  
NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVOIR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE CREEK IN  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 73 PERCENT OF ITS CONSERVATION  
CAPACITY.  
 
GIVEN LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK, NEAR AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS,  
AND FORECASTS INDICATING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION, A BELOW AVERAGE  
RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA FOR THE  
PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 15 TO MARCH 1.  
 

 
 
BULLER  
 
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