704  
FXUS63 KGID 280851  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
A BREEZY...BUT OVERALL SEASONABLY NICE...AFTERNOON IS IN STORE  
FORE THE LOCAL AREA. THANKS TO DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE  
REGION...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE  
SURFACE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.  
AT THE SAME TIME...THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL WARM 1-2 C OVER  
YESTERDAYS VALUES...RESULTING IN VERY NICE TEMPERATURES...  
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS...ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FOR THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE  
LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN  
FAIRLY DRY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS  
DISTURBANCE...AND ADDED THIS MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH  
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
ALOFT: THE LAST 24 HRS HAS DONE LITTLE TO RESOLVE MODEL DIFF'S AND  
ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY IN THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME. MUCH OF THE  
UNCERTAINTY IS DUE TO MODELING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROFS MOVING INTO  
THE PAC NW...ORBITING AROUND THE LOW OVER ERN CANADA...AND THOSE  
BREAKING OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DIVING INTO THE DESERT SW AND  
EJECTING INTO THE SRN PLNS. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS SOME OF THE  
VORT MAXIMA FCST TO OUR SW ARE BOGUS...GENERATED FROM CONVECTIVE  
FEEDBACK.  
 
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CONT  
TO FCST CYCLONIC NW FLOW SUN-WED WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER  
WRN N AMERICA AND A LOW OVER ONTARIO. THE WRN RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY  
AND MOVE E...ARRIVING OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS THU-FRI. THE FLOW WILL  
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CWA AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT TO THE  
US-CAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE SMALL LOWS/VORT MAXIMA WILL  
MEANDER CYCLONICALLY THRU THE DESERT SW. ONE OF THESE COULD MOVE  
INTO KS/OK/TX FRI. THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CWA BETWEEN  
THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE  
ANY COMMENTARY REGARDING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN.  
 
SURFACE: A COOL FRONT WILL BE DROPPING S THRU THE NRN PLNS SUN NIGHT  
...ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRES OVER ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE  
S THRU THE CWA MON AND BECOME STATIONARY JUST S AND W OF THE CWA TUE-  
WED. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES WILL DROP S OUT OF CANADA INTO THE RGN.  
AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS E OF THE RGN WED...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING  
N AND E AS A WARM FRONT. BY THU WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND  
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FRI AND PROBABLY SAT.  
 
TEMPS: SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE...NEAR NORMAL WED...THEN  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU-SAT. THE WEEK OVERALL WILL BALANCE VERY  
CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 
RAIN: THIS WEEK LOOKS VERY DRY. BELIEVE MODELS CONT TO BE OVERDONE  
WITH THEIR QPFS IN THIS VERY QUIET REGIME WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL  
FORCING. WHAT MINIMAL FORCING DOES EXIST ON THE MESOSCALE WILL HAVE  
VERY LITTLE OR POOR LOW-LVL MOISTURE AS A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS  
WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS RAIN POTENTIAL. THE  
"BEST" CHANCE FOR A FEW SCT TSTMS CONTS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS  
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU AND AN INCREASING LOW-LVL JET ADVECTS A  
PLUME OF RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK N INTO THE RGN (SFC DWPTS 55-  
63F AND 850 MB DWPTS (10-12C).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE  
FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OUT  
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS...INCREASING BY LATE MORNING AS  
DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ROSSI  
LONG TERM...KELLEY  
AVIATION...ROSSI  
 
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