128
FXUS63 KGID 100343 AAA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
943 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
UPDATED THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR THE SPRINKLES THAT
ENDED UP NORTH. SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH ARE STUBBORN AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS NOT QUITE MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 440 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CREATING PLENTY OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO START THE FORECAST OFF. CONDITIONS
ARE SO DRY IN LOWER-MID LEVELS THAT THE BEST WE WILL MUSTER IS A
SPRINKLE. NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SCATTER OUT BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN EAST
COMPONENT OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. WIND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A GUSTY NATURE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING STRONG IS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009/
SHORT TERM...FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH INCLUDES LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWFA...AND LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA. FOR BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. IN THE NORTH...STILL LOOKS TO
BE SPRINKLES AT BEST...AND WILL LIKELY WRAP UP BY 5 OR 6 PM. TO THE
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
RIGHT NOW WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. SEE NO REASON THESE WILL NOT IMPACT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST 5 TO 7 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION RISK IN THE FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 24. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AND THEN TAIL OFF. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN
CWFA WILL GENERALLY BE EAST/OVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE LIKE A PRETTY NICE DAY FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THAT
60 DEGREE RANGE...GIVE OR TAKE. THAT IS PUSHING ALMOST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION SETS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SURGE NORTH AND OVERTAKE THE CWFA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...AND THAT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN SOUNDINGS
AND LOW LEVEL MIXING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE LIFT TO
SPARK THINGS...AND HAVE USED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE COVERAGE.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHWAY 281 WEST WILL STAND THE BETTER RISK FOR
THE DRIZZLE. CLEARING THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA...AND IFFY
AT BEST FOR MANY AREAS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT...AND WITH WARMER LOWS DUE TO CLOUDS/MOISTURE...DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE.
LONG TERM....SHORT TERM...FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH INCLUDES LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWFA...AND LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA. FOR BOTH OF THESE
SCENARIOS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST. IN THE NORTH...STILL LOOKS TO BE SPRINKLES AT BEST...AND
WILL LIKELY WRAP UP BY 5 OR 6 PM. TO THE SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR RIGHT NOW WITH MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. SEE NO REASON THESE WILL NOT IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST 5 TO 7 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION RISK IN THE FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 24. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AND THEN TAIL OFF. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN
CWFA WILL GENERALLY BE EAST/OVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE LIKE A PRETTY NICE DAY FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THAT
60 DEGREE RANGE...GIVE OR TAKE. THAT IS PUSHING ALMOST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION SETS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS
WILL SURGE NORTH AND OVERTAKE THE CWFA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...AND THAT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN SOUNDINGS
AND LOW LEVEL MIXING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE LIFT TO
SPARK THINGS...AND HAVE USED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE COVERAGE.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHWAY 281 WEST WILL STAND THE BETTER RISK FOR
THE DRIZZLE. CLEARING THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SEEMS TO BE
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA...AND IFFY
AT BEST FOR MANY AREAS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT...AND WITH WARMER LOWS DUE TO CLOUDS/MOISTURE...DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009/
AVIATION...18Z AF. NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
LOTS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CANOPY OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE SHOULD THIN THIS EVENING. IN THE MEAN
TIME...CEILINGS MAY DIP BELOW 10K FOR A TIME. SPRINKLY TYPE
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR LOOKS TOO WEAK TO MENTION...EVEN AS A SHOWER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
HEINLEIN
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