223  
FXUS63 KGID 291713  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
1213 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
 
SUMMARY:  
 
OFF AND ON RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA  
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED OCCUR LATE THIS  
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
CURRENTLY, THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE "HOLE"  
IN THE RAIN IN AND JUST SW OF THE CWA. SHORT-TERM MODELS  
GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH I THINK THAT  
IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO DO SO. MODELS START TO LIFT A  
COHESIVE BAND OF RAIN INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHICH  
IS CO-LOCATED WITH STRONGER H500 VORTICITY ADVECTION AND  
INCREASING DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE.  
 
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA  
AND WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, LOCATIONS  
LIKE ORD AND LEXINGTON COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT DRY TIME THIS MORNING  
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP A A NICE GRADIENT  
IN THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTALS OF 1 TO 2" ARE  
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS LIKE BELOIT AND HEBRON, DECREASING TO ONLY A  
TENTH OR TWO IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  
 
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON  
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON, KS TO HEBRON, NE, BUT THE DEEP  
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY ENOUGH THAT THAT IT SHOULDN'T BE  
MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
LOW SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA SEE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AS  
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGIN TO FALL. I WENT AHEAD  
AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT  
TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. NO  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, SO IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
 
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM THURSDAY WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM  
TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW CLOUDS  
LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERHAPS JUST THE FAR WEST  
PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA POTENTIALLY BREAKING OUT FROM THE LOW CLOUD  
DECK. JUST NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE  
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LOOK  
ON TRACK.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN  
BETWEEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE WEST AND EAST. AT THE  
SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS. MODELS SUGGEST  
STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN AND WE COULD SEE A ROUND OF FOG  
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIALLY DRIZZLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STARTS MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE  
SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS TRENDING  
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WITH RAIN ENDING TOWARDS THE  
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS THE SOUTHERN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON  
MONDAY, OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ON  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, A NORTHERN  
PLAINS TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO OUR REGION INTO THE  
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. OVERALL, THERE ARE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR  
RAIN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
 
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BE  
IFR BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS DURING THE RAIN THAT  
CEILINGS COME UP JUST A LITTLE BIT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON AND  
OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SHOULD BECOME  
MORE SPOTTY LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME UP AFTER  
THE RAIN MOVES OUT.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MANGELS  
LONG TERM...FAY  
AVIATION...JCB  
 
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