639
FXUS97 KDDC 200647
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005
DISCUSSION
DAYS 1-2
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, THEN RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW
NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MAX HEATING WITH A NARROW RIBBON
OF MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INITIATION NEAR A DRY LINE FROM MEADE TO
GARDEN CITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER AREA WITH SHORTWAVE
FROM HAYS TO PRATT. WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30 POPS TO COVER. THEN AS
UPPER LOWS MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL CARRY 20 TO 40
POPS FOR ONLY RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF HUGOTON TO LAKIN LINE, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST CWA. THEN AS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIP SHOULD END WEST TO EAST BY 12Z. USING ETA
AND UKMET 850MB TEMPS THINK IT WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MAY HAVE A
BRIEF MIX BEFORE 12Z IN THE HAYS AREA.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH 20 TO 35 MPH FROM LIBERAL TO
LAKIN AND EAST AND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, EXCEPT NEAR 70 FAR
WEST WHERE THE DRY LINE SHOULD BE. THEN WINDS STAY IN THE 15 TO 22
MPH RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST. LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE EAST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THEN ON MONDAY IF
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A TAD ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED.
DAYS 3-7
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 66 43 53 34 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 67 41 53 32 / 20 20 20 0
EHA 70 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 69 42 56 35 / 0 20 20 0
HYS 63 46 50 34 / 30 30 40 30
P28 65 51 59 38 / 20 30 40 30
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS
NONE.
06/LACY
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