156  
FGUS73 KJKL 141739  
ESFJKL  
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-  
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-  
237-281200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
139 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS EASTERN KENTUCKY.  
 
THE FLOOD RISK IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS  
MEANS THAT MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH SOME INSTANCES OF  
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
 
THE OUTLOOK IS VALID THROUGH MAY 2024.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 25 33 9 14 <5 <5  
PINEVILLE 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 34 33 17 10 <5 <5  
WILLIAMSBURG 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 48 49 21 22 8 11  
BAXTER 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 22 24 10 12 7 8  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 43 49 11 9 <5 <5  
RAVENNA 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 59 64 34 42 13 20  
:LEVISA FORK  
PIKEVILLE 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 24 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PRESTONSBURG 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PAINTSVILLE 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 23 10 10 6 <5 <5  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 20 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
JACKSON 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 23 24 19 20 <5 <5  
:PORK FORK CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 26 27 17 19 7 6  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 40 43 23 23 9 8  
ONEIDA 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 10 10 <5 6 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 9.7 11.4 15.8 22.7 26.8 32.7 35.2  
PINEVILLE 981.4 982.9 987.1 994.8 1006.2 1013.6 1016.6  
WILLIAMSBURG 11.9 12.8 16.6 20.6 25.9 31.4 32.8  
BAXTER 4.2 4.7 7.5 12.5 15.5 17.9 21.5  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 13.8 15.7 17.1 19.3 21.7 24.2 25.2  
RAVENNA 15.5 17.2 18.5 22.4 26.4 32.0 34.8  
:LEVISA FORK  
PIKEVILLE 11.5 12.2 16.2 25.2 34.7 38.4 40.8  
PRESTONSBURG 8.1 9.6 15.1 22.3 31.9 35.3 36.3  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PAINTSVILLE 9.3 10.7 16.0 22.7 34.4 38.1 41.2  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 5.6 6.0 7.5 10.7 18.1 23.5 25.3  
JACKSON 5.4 7.3 10.9 17.6 27.8 35.5 39.3  
:PORK FORK CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 4.6 5.0 6.4 8.1 9.8 10.7 12.1  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 7.9 8.4 9.9 12.7 17.1 20.5 24.2  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 8.4 9.0 9.8 12.3 15.0 17.1 17.4  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 8.3 10.7 15.5 24.1 31.2 37.3 41.1  
ONEIDA 10.5 12.0 15.1 20.1 24.3 28.6 33.0  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9  
PINEVILLE 977.1 977.1 976.9 976.7 976.7 976.6 976.6  
WILLIAMSBURG 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1  
BAXTER 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.0  
RAVENNA 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1  
:LEVISA FORK  
PIKEVILLE 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1  
PRESTONSBURG 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PAINTSVILLE 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0  
JACKSON 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2  
:PORK FORK CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2  
ONEIDA 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS GENERALLY AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND  
2 INCHES, NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES  
ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. STREAMFLOWS WERE  
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AND RESERVOIRS WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND  
A HALF INCH, AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE  
PERIOD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO  
FALL THROUGH FRIDAY MARCH 15TH, WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION  
OCCURRING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK, WHICH RUNS FROM MARCH 19TH THROUGH MARCH  
23RD, CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK, WHICH RUNS FROM MARCH 21ST  
THROUGH MARCH 27TH, CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF MARCH, AS WELL AS APRIL AND MAY, CALLS  
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE AT  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.  
 
CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/NSA.  
 
CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH.  
 
CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THIS AREA ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.LRL-  
WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/REPORTS/LKREPORT.HTML.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/JKL FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING AND FLOOD WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2024.  
 

 
 
GEOGERIAN  
 
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