892  
FGUS73 KJKL 142123  
ESFJKL  
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-  
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-  
424-211500-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
423 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/21/2017 - 02/19/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 55 52 27 27 14 13  
PINEVILLE 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 29 28 10 9 <5 <5  
WILLIAMSBURG 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 61 56 35 33 22 19  
BAXTER 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 24 23 10 10 6 7  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 48 40 12 9 <5 <5  
RAVENNA 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 67 58 43 36 20 17  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PIKEVILLE 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PRESTONSBURG 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PAINTSVILLE 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 11 7 8 6 6 5  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 18 6 6 <5 <5 <5  
JACKSON 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 24 18 21 14 7 <5  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 37 31 24 20 8 <5  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 47 38 30 24 16 9  
ONEIDA 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 18 16 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/21/2017 - 02/19/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 13.0 16.0 19.1 28.8 33.3 39.5 42.8  
PINEVILLE 983.0 984.8 988.6 996.4 1003.0 1009.8 1015.1  
WILLIAMSBURG 13.8 16.1 18.9 22.6 31.0 35.8 37.7  
BAXTER 4.6 6.5 9.6 13.5 15.8 17.8 20.9  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.8 21.7 24.4 27.4  
RAVENNA 17.6 18.6 19.6 23.7 28.2 37.5 51.2  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PIKEVILLE 10.7 13.9 15.7 19.9 27.8 34.0 41.2  
PRESTONSBURG 7.3 12.3 13.7 19.0 26.3 35.6 39.2  
PAINTSVILLE 8.5 11.6 13.7 17.3 23.6 35.7 42.7  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 5.9 6.6 8.7 13.1 16.7 23.7 27.9  
JACKSON 7.6 8.8 13.4 22.1 28.3 37.2 41.4  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 4.8 5.3 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.2  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 9.0 10.5 12.7 15.1 18.8 22.3 24.1  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 8.0 8.9 9.3 10.4 12.2 15.0 16.1  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 13.3 15.2 18.3 26.0 33.6 40.6 44.3  
ONEIDA 13.8 14.9 16.3 21.2 26.7 31.5 33.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/21/2017 - 02/19/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
BARBOURVILLE 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9  
PINEVILLE 977.6 977.4 977.2 976.9 976.7 976.6 976.6  
WILLIAMSBURG 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1  
BAXTER 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3  
:KENTUCKY RIVER  
HEIDELBERG 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.1  
RAVENNA 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2  
:LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
PIKEVILLE 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.3  
PRESTONSBURG 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.0  
PAINTSVILLE 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.9  
:NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
HAZARD 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2  
JACKSON 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3  
:CUMBERLAND RIVER  
CUMBERLAND 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5  
:RED RIVER  
CLAY CITY 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2  
:RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER  
ELKHORN CITY 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.8  
:SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER  
BOONEVILLE 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5  
ONEIDA 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.3  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/JKL FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NOVEMBER 21.  
 

 
 
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