719
FGUS73 KLMK 241744
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-231200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0136 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 12.0 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 6/29/2008 - 9/27/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451 421.8 422.8 424.1 426.9 429.3 431.8
MCALPINE UPPER 23 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.4
MCALPINE LOWER 55 13.9 17.6 21.7 27.2 30.6 34.2
CANNELTON LOCK 42 13.4 15.3 17.8 22.2 24.1 28.2
TELL CITY 38 14.6 16.0 18.0 21.6 23.1 27.1
KENTUCKY RIVER
FORD LOCK 26 11.5 12.2 13.4 15.2 18.1 19.3
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30 11.8 12.9 13.8 16.5 18.7 20.0
FRANKFORT LOCK 31 8.5 9.2 9.8 12.0 14.3 17.1
SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32 1.6 2.7 3.5 4.8 6.5 10.0
ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35 6.9 9.1 13.7 22.5 31.4 33.5
MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 20 5.6 7.1 10.3 16.5 19.3 23.4
GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28 3.6 3.8 4.6 6.7 10.6 24.5
BROWNSVILLE 18 9.2 9.3 10.1 11.2 12.1 16.6
WOODBURY 33 8.2 9.3 11.9 14.7 20.2 30.4
ROCHESTER 17 8.0 8.7 9.9 11.0 12.8 16.2
BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28 5.8 6.3 7.0 9.6 12.9 14.0
ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25 6.8 8.3 11.2 14.0 18.7 27.2
FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE...PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING FROM NEAR NORMAL
IN THE NORTH TO ABOUT TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTH. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THREE INCHES.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT SIX TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPTIATION TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE NORMAL.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/LMK (ALL LOWER CASE)
CMC
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