055  
FGUS73 KPAH 141456  
ESFPAH  
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-  
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-  
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-  
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-281200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
952 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS PADUCAH SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME  
PERIOD FOR MID-MARCH THROUGH MID-MAY. IT INCLUDES THE MID-  
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR  
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR  
MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES  
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WEST KENTUCKY. A  
STRONG EL NINO PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN WHAT HAS BEEN A DRIER AND  
WARMER WINTER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  
 
FLOODING IN THIS REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF GROUND  
MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. ICE JAMS ARE  
RARELY A FACTOR IN FLOODING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
 
 
WHILE SOME RAIN FELL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK, RAIN TOTALS WERE  
NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE  
REGION FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WERE LESS THAN ONE INCH. WHILE  
THERE IS A SMALL RISE COMING DOWN SOME OF THE BIGGER RIVERS DUE TO  
FORECASTED RAINFALL, NO FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD  
STAGE.  
 
SMALLER RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE RUNNING 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF  
NORMAL. THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 20  
PERCENT OF NORMAL NEAR THE CONFLUENCE. MOST AREAS ARE BELOW NORMAL  
AVERAGE FLOW.  
 
SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL BUT IT IS RESPONSIVE TO LOCAL  
RAINFALL. DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE AND LONGER TERM ACCUMULATIVE AVERAGES  
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS NO FROST DEPTH IN OUR REGION. THERE IS  
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN EITHER THE MISSISSIPPI OR THE OHIO VALLEYS.  
   
..PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS
 
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 20 33 11 20 <5 <5  
PARADISE 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 63 64 18 22 <5 <5  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 63 64 37 38 17 20  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GOLCONDA 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 27 44 <5 6 <5 <5  
HENDERSON 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MOUNT VERNON 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NEWBURGH DAM 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 75 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OWENSBORO 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 23 31 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SHAWNEETOWN 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 67 79 18 35 <5 <5  
J.T. MYERS DAM 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 60 71 <5 6 <5 <5  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 59 62 40 47 15 13  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 41 40 33 33 20 20  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 68 79 19 26 <5 <5  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 45 55 10 12 <5 <5  
MURPHYSBORO 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 46 69 28 47 15 16  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 15.1 15.8 16.6 18.2 21.4 26.4 29.6  
PARADISE 373.6 375.8 378.5 381.6 384.6 387.5 390.3  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 19.6 21.0 24.5 29.7 33.9 35.9 36.8  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 27.5 28.8 34.1 37.3 40.8 42.6 42.8  
GOLCONDA 32.9 33.3 35.0 37.6 40.2 44.2 46.1  
HENDERSON 23.3 24.5 29.5 32.6 36.1 38.1 38.3  
MOUNT VERNON 27.8 28.6 32.8 35.8 39.5 41.8 42.2  
NEWBURGH DAM 29.4 32.1 37.3 41.3 43.4 44.6 44.9  
OWENSBORO 26.6 29.1 33.4 36.8 39.7 41.6 42.0  
SHAWNEETOWN 27.1 28.1 31.3 36.3 40.8 45.4 47.1  
J.T. MYERS DAM 29.0 30.0 34.3 38.9 42.3 45.5 47.3  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 12.0 13.5 16.0 19.1 21.3 24.0 24.3  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 8.0 8.9 10.1 12.6 19.1 22.0 24.8  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 9.6 11.4 14.4 16.7 19.7 20.6 21.0  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 12.0 12.6 16.4 19.1 22.0 27.0 31.7  
MURPHYSBORO 13.1 14.5 17.9 20.4 29.1 41.4 41.5  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GREEN RIVER  
CALHOUN 12.1 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5  
PARADISE 367.2 366.8 366.0 365.4 365.1 364.9 364.8  
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER  
CARMI 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7  
:OHIO RIVER  
EVANSVILLE 16.4 15.9 15.2 14.5 14.0 13.8 13.7  
GOLCONDA 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5  
HENDERSON 14.3 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2  
MOUNT VERNON 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3  
NEWBURGH DAM 17.0 16.7 15.5 14.7 13.8 13.5 13.4  
OWENSBORO 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0  
SHAWNEETOWN 19.2 18.3 17.5 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.2  
J.T. MYERS DAM 19.1 17.6 16.1 15.0 14.2 13.3 13.0  
:PATOKA RIVER  
PRINCETON 8.1 7.9 7.0 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.5  
:SKILLET FORK RIVER  
WAYNE CITY 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.7  
:WABASH RIVER  
NEW HARMONY 5.0 4.1 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.5  
:BIG MUDDY RIVER  
PLUMFIELD 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.6  
MURPHYSBORO 9.0 7.2 5.5 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.4  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOKS
 
 
A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STRONG STORMS MAY  
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 21 THROUGH 27 CALLS FOR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME,  
NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES AND RAINFALL  
DURING THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES.  
 
THE OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.  
THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS  
AND THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL, AND ABOVE  
NORMAL RAINFALL. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS BETWEEN 4 AND 4  
1/2 INCHES. THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR  
2024 UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT.  
 

 
 
LAMM  
 
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