427  
FNUS73 KJKL 211134  
FWSJKL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SAND SPRINGS KV3-5...USDA-FS DANIEL BOONE NF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY  
634 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON NOVEMBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL DEVELOP TODAY.  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA  
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 38 BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS  
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
AROUND 43 PERCENT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONT, NO RAIN IS FORECAST.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........40 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.  
RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............29 INCREASING TO 38.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12  
MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2400  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3100 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR /8900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD  
/57700 KNOT-FT/.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................14 INCREASING TO 66.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
 
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........8 21 31 35 39 33 31 31 31 31  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............40 44 48 51 53 56 58 59 58 57  
DEWPOINT........29 31 33 34 35 36 37 38 38 38  
RH..............64 60 56 52 50 47 45 45 47 49  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 20 20 20 20 15 15 10  
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 15 20 22 22 22 21 20  
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............10 15 18 26 40 50 52 53 68 63  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10009 11 13 21 40 53 56 58 56 51  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.  
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............35 DECREASING TO 32 LATE AT NIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 20 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR TO GOOD (21300-41000 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................8.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........25 27 18 26 67 88  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............55 52 48 45 42 40  
DEWPOINT........37 36 35 34 34 33  
RH..............51 54 60 65 73 76  
20 FT WIND......SW 5 W 4 W 4 W 4 NW 5 N 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10  
RIDGETOP WIND...SW 10 W 5 W 5 W 5 NW 10 N 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2100 1800 2100 2100 1900  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20 W 17 W 16 NW 14 NW 13 N 13  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 4  
ADI.............9 8 7 6 8 8  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 2 2 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100041 33 25 25 23 21  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 43.  
RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............29 DECREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR TO FAIR (16400-23200 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................25.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........72 55 24 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............37 37 41 43  
DEWPOINT........31 28 25 25  
RH..............79 70 52 49  
20 FT WIND......N 5G10 N 4G5 N 3G5 N 3G5  
RIDGETOP WIND...N 10 N 5 N 5 N 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2600 3000  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 13 N 13 N 9 N 7  
LVORI...........3 3 2 2  
ADI.............24 25 27 23  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100021 23 21 19  
 

 
FORECASTER...KAS  
REQUESTED BY...LEIF MEADOWS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1719035.0/JKL  
.EMAIL LEIFMEADOWS@FS.FED.US  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page