134  
FNUS73 KJKL 221639  
FWSJKL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELLS BRANCH...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY  
1139 AM EST FRI DEC 22 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1100 EST ON DECEMBER 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN  
ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH  
OF SATURDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THE BURN SITE, CHANCES  
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN  
LIKELY BY 3PM AND DEFINITE THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BE A SOAKING  
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS  
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH  
OVERNIGHT, AND ANOTHER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AT  
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD ALSO  
RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY BY 3PM, THEN RAIN CONTINUING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT REQUEST...MAX 59.  
RH..................80 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 75 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............47 INCREASING TO 52 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 9 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR /15500 KNOT-FT/ AT REQUEST. MAX...FAIR  
/28200 KNOT-FT/.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................23 INCREASING TO 29 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT REQUEST...MAX 3.  
 
TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).30 30 40 50 60 90 100  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............55 57 58 58 58 56 55  
DEWPOINT........49 50 52 53 54 54 54  
RH..............80 77 80 83 86 93 96  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 4 4 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 5  
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S  
RIDGE WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 5 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 17 18 16 13 9 8  
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 4 5 6  
ADI.............21 27 31 26 18 13 11  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100016 21 25 20 13 9 8  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............51.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE AT  
NIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR (1800-6300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............7.  
ADI.................5.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 90 90  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............53 53 53 53 53 52 51 50 51 53 55 55  
DEWPOINT........53 53 53 53 52 52 51 50 51 52 52 52  
RH..............100 100 100 100 96 100 100 100 100 96 90 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE S SE S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE S SE S S S S  
RIDGE WIND SPD..5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 5 3 3 8  
LVORI...........8 8 8 9 7 9 9 8 9 8 6 5  
ADI.............7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 3 3 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 6  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN NUMEROUS RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.  
RH..................MIN 78 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............51 DECREASING TO 45 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 22  
TO 28 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........FAIR TO GOOD (14400-52400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING  
TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (62700-79500 KNOT-FT)  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................25 INCREASING TO 35 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 52 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 67 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 54.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CCH OF PCPN (%).100 100 100 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............54 52 55 52  
DEWPOINT........53 52 49 47  
RH..............96 100 80 83  
20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 SW 6G10 SW 5G10 W 5G10  
RIDGETOP WIND...SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 W 10  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 15 S 17 SW 24 SW 26  
LVORI...........5 4 3 3  
ADI.............20 26 39 67  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100014 19 32 75  
 

 
FORECASTER...JMW  
REQUESTED BY...BROCK CAMPBELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1720152.1/JKL  
.EMAIL BROCKCAMPBELL@FS.FED.US  
 
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