790  
FNUS73 KLMK 181049  
FWSLMK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TRACT 3 PRESCRIBED BURN...DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY  
649 AM EDT TUE APR 18 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOK MAINLY DRY. THERE COULD BE  
SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER THIS MORNING, BUT THE BETTER  
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE MADISON COUNTY AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 1 PM EDT.  
 
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST THIS MORNING,  
BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE IN THE  
10-15 MPH RANGE. DISPERSION LOOKS DECENT, WITH MIXING HEIGHTS  
INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 FT BY LATE MORNING.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.  
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2400-3400  
FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM  
SKY (%).........77 78 79 80 81 82 83 83 84 85  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH  
TEMP............58 59 63 66 68 69 71 71 72 71  
RH..............71 67 62 61 59 59 57 59 59 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15  
DISPERSION......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.  
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM  
SKY (%).........86 87 88 85 83 81 79 77 75 74 73 73  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH  
TEMP............70 69 67 65 64 62 61 61 60 60 60 60  
RH..............63 66 68 73 75 81 84 84 87 87 87 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 12  
DISPERSION......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.  
RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.  
DSI.................2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM  
SKY (%).........72 71 81 80 79 78 76 72 71 67 59 55  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............60 61 61 63 65 67 68 70 71 73 75 76  
RH..............90 87 90 87 84 81 81 76 73 68 62 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15  
DISPERSION......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...EBW  
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN M WHITE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707104.0/LMK  
.EMAIL NATHAN.M.WHITE8.CIV@MAIL.MIL  
 
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