027  
FNUS73 KPAH 111303  
FWSPAH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FOURCHE PILES...USFS MARK TWAIN NF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
803 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON JUNE 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY  
AND TONIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BETTER  
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, LIMITING ANY RAIN  
CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT  
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP NEAR 35 PERCENT  
BY NEXT SUNDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........80 AT IGNITION...MAX 92.  
RH..................72 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN  
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3000  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 14  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............80 83 86 88 90 90 91 91 90  
RH..............72 67 61 57 54 54 50 50 52  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 3.0 4.1 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 14 13 10 12 13 14 14  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 71.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1400 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14  
TO 23 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............90 84 79 76 75 73  
RH..............52 67 79 82 84 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 5 5 5 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 7 7 7 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....7200 4900 1400 1100 1300 1200  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 16 22 22 16  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 38 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 91.  
RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 40 40  
TEMP............71 75 83 89 91 90  
RH..............100 90 74 61 56 56  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.6  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1500 2400 4300 4900 4700  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 12 10 9 10  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT  
WINDS.    
THURSDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LIGHT  
WINDS.    
FRIDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...SMITH  
REQUESTED BY...JIM KRIZMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811344.0/PAH  
.DELDT 06/11/18  
.EMAIL JMKRIZMAN@FS.FED.US  
 
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