196  
FNUS73 KPAH 131310  
FWSPAH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MAYBRY RX...DOD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
810 AM CDT THU APR 13 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE  
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY TODAY FOR THE HEARTLAND. AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY IN THE PENNYRILE  
REGION OF KENTUCKY AND IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. A DISTURBANCE  
ALOFT WILL RIDE AROUND THE EDGES OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY, PROVIDING  
A LIMITED POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY  
FOR AREAS WEST OF FORT CAMPBELL. DESPITE THIS, FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN  
WARMER BUT MORE HUMID THAN TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION  
AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD  
BE DRY AND WARM AGAIN, WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY, UNDER THE  
RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.  
RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5  
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN  
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO  
6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-2100 FT  
AGL INCREASING TO 5900-7800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 1 TO  
5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............66 76 80 82 80  
RH..............58 39 32 27 35  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S SW SE E  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 5 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 3300 5900 7700 6600  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S NW N NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 3 1 2  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.  
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............77 72 67 64 62 60  
RH..............42 51 61 60 65 78  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 2 1 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....4900 2300 1200 600 600 900  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 5 5 5 5  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.  
RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800-10700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............59 65 76 81 83 82  
RH..............72 60 50 39 37 34  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 7 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 3600 10400 10000 9800 10400  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SW SW SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 9 10 10 12  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...BLANCHARD  
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT OSBORNE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1706774.0/PAH  
.EMAIL SCOTT.P.OSBORNE2.CIV@MAIL.MIL  
 
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