604  
FXUS61 KRLX 172305  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THROUGH THE CWA,  
NOW BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND BECKLEY. MOST LIKELY THE FRONT WILL  
EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAVE  
UPDATED POP AND SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE EXIT OF THE FRONT.  
SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS  
WORKING INTO THE AREA, VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY STILL BE AN ISSUE  
DUE TO THE WET SOILS FROM THE RAINFALL RECEIVED THE LAST FEW  
DAYS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT IN  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DRIER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE  
FRONT A BIT, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NOW WORKING ACROSS  
CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING MUCH LIGHTNING FROM THE  
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR, BUT WITH SOME PEAKS OF  
SUNSHINE OUT THERE THINK ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE  
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY DEVELOPED  
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER, THINGS ARE MOVING ALONG NICELY WHICH  
LIMITS WATER CONCERNS. MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR WOULD BE HEAVY  
RAIN MOVING ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER TODAY. DID  
CUT BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE  
CLOUDS ARE STANDING FIRM.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP GIVING MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT TO  
SCOUR OUT, SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
OHIO RIVER -- GENERALLY WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE TODAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE  
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR  
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, THIS WILL ALLOW  
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. POPS INCREASE  
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW  
AND MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY  
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY  
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES THEN MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM FRONT FROM THIS  
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY  
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME  
FRAME. WHAT THIS SPELLS OUT IS MORE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND  
RAIN FOR THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW  
FINALLY MOVES OUT LATE ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT EXITING THE AREA, WITH NO OTHER SHOWERS OR STORMS  
EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINALS TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT. BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN/IF  
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG  
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN, MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT  
RAINS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN  
TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD  
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY  
TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H M M M L M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L  
 
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...  
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC  
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK  
SHORT TERM...JS  
LONG TERM...JS  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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