245  
FXUS61 KRLX 192350  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG  
COLD FRONT MID WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 749 PM SATURDAY...  
 
UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NORTHERN WV  
AND CENTRAL OHIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
 
AS OF 550 PM SATURDAY...  
 
UPDATED FORECAST TO BETTER HANDLE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OH AND  
NORTHERN WV.  
 
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...  
 
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN KICKING OFF ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO  
AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER  
AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS OUR OHIO COUNTIES AND NORTHERN WV  
AND THIS WILL LIKELY DAMPER THE CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER,  
WE ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND AS THE TROUGH  
PUSHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LAPSE  
RATES TO ABOVE 7C/KM AND MOISTURE MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.  
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH,  
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS  
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  
 
STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF  
HEATING AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENSE VALLEY  
FOG TO DEVELOP. TOMORROW WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...  
 
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A BROAD BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH ENHANCES  
SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND HIGHER  
TEMPERATURES. LOWLAND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER-80'S  
TO NEAR 90, EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE BRIEF LAPSE IN SOLAR  
INSULATION WITH THE NEARBY TOTAL ECLIPSE. FOGGY MORNINGS ARE  
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW OVERALL.  
 
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE IN THE OTHERWISE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW... THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING, ALBEIT WEAK, DOESN'T  
ALLOW FOR COMPLETELY CLEAR ECLIPSE CONDITIONS. BEST VIEWING  
CONDITIONS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE EXIST IN THE LOWLANDS OF  
WEST VIRGINIA AND IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. TUESDAY, AN APPROACHING  
LOW WILL INTRODUCE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND GREATER  
INSTABILITY WITH GROWING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ITS OVERNIGHT TIMING, OVERALL  
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH MOMENTUM  
TRANSFER COULD BRING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS  
WILL SETTLE IN WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT, DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ORIGINATING  
IN CANADA WILL KEEP WEATHER GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE CAVEAT OF  
LOW-PREDICTABILITY IN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY DRUM UP  
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 550 PM SATURDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND NORTHERN WV THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY  
STORMS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
LATE TONIGHT, SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS. FOG MAY OR MAY NOT FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS WEST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF SUNDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE  
EXPECTED WITH A CUMULUS DECK.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT LOW WITH FOG.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, DENSITY, AND LOCATION OF FOG  
LATE TONIGHT COULD VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 08/20/17  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M L L  
 
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...  
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC  
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK  
SHORT TERM...MC  
LONG TERM...MC  
AVIATION...RPY  
 
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