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FXUS61 KRLX 200655  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
255 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL, WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM  
AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE  
AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH  
THE HIGH OVERHEAD TONIGHT, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,  
VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY BE THICKER THAN WE SAW THE LAST TWO  
NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.USED A  
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS  
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND ESPECIALLY  
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO.  
THE ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER WEST, TAKING THE LOW FROM WESTERN TN,  
THROUGH IN AND NORTHWEST OH. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS  
THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD STILL  
RESULT IN A GOOD DOSE OF PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD  
AREA OF 80+ POPS. KEPT SOME LOW PROBABILITY THUNDER MENTION IN  
MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
COLD AIR FILTERS IN AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGER BEHIND THE  
SURFACE FEATURE, WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES AT HIGH  
ELEVATIONS. A BRIEF RIDGE DRIES THINGS OUT TO END THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING TO  
KEEP VALLEY FOG AT A MINIMUM. DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN VERY CLOSE  
TO THE RIVERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME CONCERN AT EKN FOR IFR FOG, AS  
LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH THERE BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE FRI 10/20/17  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...  
DENSE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND  
IN RAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK  
NEAR TERM...MPK  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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