837  
FXUS61 KRLX 280727  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
327 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A STELLAR DAY TODAY, BEFORE YIELDING TO A  
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH  
ITS CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND, WAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL  
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS:  
 
LOCATIONFORECAST LOW THIS MORNING RECORD YEAR  
CURRENT AS OF 3 AM  
CRW CHARLESTON 51 53 50 1988  
HTS HUNTINGTON 51 54 47 1915  
PKB PARKERBURG 50 51 48 1988  
EKN ELKINS 43 46 39 1988  
BKW BECKLEY 49 50 39 1955  
CKB CLARKSBURG 49 50 46 1927  
 
THE HIGH WILL BRING ABOUT A STELLAR DAY TODAY, WITH A WARMER  
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING IN  
INCREASING MOISTURE, RESULTING IN PATCHY CLOUD. THE CLOUDS,  
ALONG WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW, AND WARMER AIR, WILL LEAD TO A  
WARMER NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE HILL AND RIDGETOPS.  
 
BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT,  
STILL A LITTLE BELOW BOTH BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. FOR LOWS  
TONIGHT, LOWERED THE VALLEYS A BIT AND RAISED THE HILL AND  
RIDGETOP A BIT, INCREASING THE RIDGE / VALLEY SPLIT THAT THE  
MODELS INDICATED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WILL  
EXTEND WEST INTO WV THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.  
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST  
STALLING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY. ITS VICINITY COULD ENHANCE THE  
FORMATION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT SHOULD KEEP  
THE WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
OVERALL, DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO  
LIKELY BY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
BY SUNDAY, WITH THE WEAKENED STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE  
AREA, CHANCES FOR PCPN DIMINISH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED  
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 155 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG. ALL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY CRW AND EKN GO LIFR, AND SOME GUIDANCE  
DOES NOT EVEN BRING CRW TO IFR.  
 
FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO FORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES  
EAST, GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KTS  
ALOFT. THE CALM SURFACE AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WILL  
GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, BUT MEDIUM OVERNIGHT FOR FOG.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR AT EKN MAY BEGIN LATER THAN THE 07Z  
TIME CODED IN THE TAF. IFR MAY NOT FORM AT ALL AT CRW, ALTHOUGH  
THERE WILL BE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEY ALONG THE ELK RIVER THERE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE WED 06/28/17  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L M H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM  
NEAR TERM...TRM  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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