103  
FXUS61 KRLX 252216  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
616 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DECENT WEATHER  
FOR MEMORIAL DAY, BUT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY  
MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...  
 
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND  
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE, WHICH REFLECTS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS PER MID LEVEL  
WEAKNESS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE ESSENCE OF THE  
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  
 
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...  
 
CUMULUS FIELD IS BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FROM VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT IS APPARENT THAT THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW  
SATURATED LAYER IS HAVING A HEAD TIME FEEDING VERTICAL  
DEVELOPMENT. SOME SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER THE TUG FORK  
VALLEY, AND EXPECT MORE COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,  
BUT AGAIN, THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS GOING TO BE  
INHIBITIVE TO A LARGE DEGREE.  
 
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE LEADING TO MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.  
 
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE OPEN WAVE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO  
VALLEY, SO THE INCREASE IN POPS IS NOT COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON  
HEATING TOMORROW. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE ADDED  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES REGION WIDE. LOTS OF  
GENERAL THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE  
CONUS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY  
 
WITH A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WE ARE IN  
THE DEAD AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH SHOULD  
LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL, WITH DECENT MOISTURE KEPT SOME LOW  
END POPS IN, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS BLEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE PATTERN IS A BIT MESSY FOR THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY A COLD FRONT  
WILL TRY TO SINK IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT  
BECOMES OF SUB-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO BEGIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE  
GULF. RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS RATHER LOW ON THE  
EVOLUTION OF THIS RESULTING IN MINIMAL CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THIS,  
STUCK VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS BLEND WHICH BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
POPS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS DRIFT  
THROUGH. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL  
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...  
 
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AS  
HEATING PEAKS, BUT ONLY CARRYING PREVAILING SHRA AT BKW. LOWER  
CHANCES ELSEWHERE MAKE PREVAILING A RISKY BET AT THIS TIME. THE  
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS ALSO ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO NO MENTION IN  
THE TAF FOR THIS AS WELL. AMDS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION PATTERNS  
FORM.  
 
EKN BEING HIT HARD FOR FOG TONIGHT BY THE LAMP GUIDANCE BUT  
LOWER EVERYWHERE ELSE, AND WILL RIDE THIS DATA FOR THIS  
ISSUANCE. IF ANY TERMINAL GETS APPRECIABLE RAIN, THAT FOG  
FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED.  
 
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN/THUNDER  
CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY TOWARDS 18Z.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TERMINALS THAT GET RAIN SEE BRIEF IFR. MAY  
NEED TO ADD TSRA FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CELLS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE FRI 05/25/18  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26  
NEAR TERM...TRM/26  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...26  
 
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