785  
FXUS61 KRLX 172330  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
630 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING,  
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONTS CROSS TUESDAY AND AGAIN  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...  
 
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS, MAINLY TO HANG ONTO MEASURABLE PRECIP  
WORDING A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. EVEN LINGER  
SOME INTO MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT DRIZZLE MENTION ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD.  
 
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...  
 
A DAMPENING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, MOST OF  
THE MOISTURE WILL BE USED TRYING TO WET THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE  
LIGHTER SIDE.  
 
MODELS SHOWING A STRATUS DECK MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM  
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER  
CONSIDERABLY ON THE HANDLING OF THIS DECK ON MONDAY, WITH SOME  
MAINTAINING THE STRATUS DECK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND OTHER  
RAISING THE DECK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS  
WHICH ARE MAINTAINING THE DECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND KEEPING  
DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...  
 
WEAK LIFT AND SATURDAY LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO  
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A  
SOUTHERN SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN  
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV. TEMPS WILL  
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED IN THE EXTENDED WITH  
TREND TO DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE  
FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF A PUSH  
THE COLD FRONT GETS THIS WEEKEND, REGARDLESS SATURDAY LOOKS  
WET.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...  
 
CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LOW LEVEL  
DRY AIR IS SQUEEZED OUT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE  
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING, AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.  
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING STRATUS COULD LOWER INTO IFR RANGE LATE  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID INCLUDE THIS AT CKB AND BKW, BUT MAY  
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY GET LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND/OR  
DRIZZLE TONIGHT. MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS MONDAY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
 
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...  
IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30  
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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