104  
FXUS61 KRLX 261038  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
638 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN  
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE BUOYANCY IS ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE  
SPECTRUM, WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE  
STORMS THAT DO FORM WHICH LENDS TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE THIN CAPE PROFILE AND SATURATED  
COLUMN WILL KEEP STORMS LOW TOPPED, BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE QUITE  
EFFICIENT AS PW'S ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR IN THE 1.25" RANGE. 1 HOUR FFG VALUES SUPPORT 1.25" WHILE 3  
HOUR FFG VALUES ARE 1.5 - 2.5" WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT BE  
EXCEEDED TODAY THOUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL WV A FFG MINIMUM EXISTS  
AND THE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST  
OF THE STATE OF WV. WE ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SPC  
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...  
 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF EARLY MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH  
US STILL BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR NEVER HAVE POPS GOING  
COMPLETELY DRY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY  
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS ONE NOT  
QUITE AS STRONG A THE ONE WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT  
STILL ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DOES SHOW A  
BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY DAY  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...  
 
DETAILS STILL PRETTY MURKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON A  
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE LOW  
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT HAVE QUITE  
DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH BOTH SHOWING SOMETHING  
DO HAVE LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE NEAR TO  
JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE LOWS WILL BE DECENTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
CLOUDS AROUND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...  
 
GENERALLY VFR TODAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. COULD  
SEE SOME IFR FORM NEAR/UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
OVERNIGHT FOG IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS  
FAST ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TEMPO IFR IN STORMS TODAY..  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L  
 
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...  
IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RAIN  
ENDS. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
RADAR SITE KRLX HAS A FAULTY COMPONENT THAT IS LEADING TO HIGHER  
REFLECTIVITIES THAN WHAT SHOULD BE OBSERVED. A PART IS ON ORDER  
AND WILL BE REPLACED AS SOON AS IT ARRIVES. KEEP THIS IN MIND  
TODAY SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JW  
NEAR TERM...JW  
SHORT TERM...MZ  
LONG TERM...MZ  
AVIATION...JW  
 
EQUIPMENT...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page