795
FXUS61 KRLX 092332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. SOME HAZE AND/OR
POLLUTION INTO TUESDAY IN THE STABLE AIR. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS GIVEN RISE TO SOME HAZE WHILE ALSO
LIMITING THE MIXING LAYER TO OR BELOW 2KFT...SCRUBBING SOME
PRESCRIBED BURNS TODAY. THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES INTO TUE BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME BETTER MIXED. MIXING LAYER LOOKS EVEN
LOWER IF NOT NON-EXISTENT FOR TUE COMPARED WITH TODAY.
A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FCST FOR TUE IS THE EXODUS OF THE REMNANTS OF
IDA TO OUR S AND E. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
ALL TRENDING THIS DIRECTION...ONLY 3/21 9Z SREF MEMBERS SHOW IDA
AFFECTING S HALF OF CWA AND ANOTHER 4 GRAZE S PORTION; OTHER 14
MEMBERS DRY. HAVE SCHC TO CHC LATE TUE FAR SE PORTION OF AREA AND
SCHC LATE NW BEHIND OLD FRONT DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE ERADICATION OF ANY HAZE.
WITH THE THICK HIGH CLOUD LAYER...SEEMS PRUDENT TO STICK CLOSE TO
CURRENT NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER
MET. WITH DRIER FCST FOR TUE...APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE HIGHS ABOVE
THE MAV BUT NOT QUITE ALL THE WAY TO THE HIGH MET YET.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MODELS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE NOW WITH CUTTING OFF REMAINS OF HURRICANE
IDA...BECAUSE OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FIRST WINNING THE RACE TO
OUR AREA. WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA ON OUTER
PERIPHERY OF REMAINS OF IDA AT BEST...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. OTHER THAN CHANCE POPS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LIMITED POPS TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AS A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SURFACE HIGH...CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY...WILL BE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR US...FLOW
AROUND THAT HIGH WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...THEN
VEER TO SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY BY LATE THURSDAY. SO AFTER CLOUDS BREAK
UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...A RETURN OF A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO RETURN
FLOW. BUT FOR NOW...WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CEILING AOA 080 WITH LIGHT FLOW SFC AND ALOFT. HAZE IN
THE STABLE AIR MASS MAY DROP VSBYS TOWARD MVFR /5 MI/. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUCH AS EKN.
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MDP/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV
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