059  
FXUS61 KRLX 281905  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
305 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW AND MID  
LEVELS, PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY HAVE A HARD TIME FORMING. BEST  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE MORE MOISTURE  
WILL BE AVAILABLE. SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG  
THE FRONT POSSIBLE IN OHIO, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE  
POSSIBILITY OF THIS CAUSING WATER ISSUES.  
 
THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKING  
AT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE  
EXPECTED, WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ONCE  
AGAIN HAVE DRY MID LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
HAVE A HARD TIME FORMING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...  
 
VERY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD STILL ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL  
CLIMB CLOSE TO 90 AGAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN THROUGH  
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR MAX HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT  
WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH DECENT CAP, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP  
POP AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW.  
 
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG ANOMALOUS LOW  
LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GEFS SHOWING 850 MB WINDS  
AT 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE WITH ABOUT 60 KNOTS  
FORECAST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY  
MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST PROGRESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS AND IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...  
 
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT IT SHOULD  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE  
THEN BECOMES UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT. DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS  
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW  
EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SE U.S. AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS  
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF  
INTO AN UPPER LOW AND LINGERS OVERHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STILL  
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME BEING SO LATE  
IN THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KY AND  
SOUTHEAST OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING SOME RESTRICTIONS. A  
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS COULD  
PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS  
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN WV AND IN NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH.  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. EVEN SO, A FEW  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN  
SOUTHEAST OH. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF  
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND TIME OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN  
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW  
NEAR TERM...RPY  
SHORT TERM...MPK  
LONG TERM...MPK  
AVIATION...RPY  
 
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