730
FXUS61 KRLX 232043
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
STRONGER FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS
KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FROM AROUND HTS TO PKB AND
WEST...AND ALSO IN THE MTNS AND HIGH TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE THREAT FOR
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
ABOUT PKB EAST TO CKB AND THEN THE MTNS BY THE END OF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN KY SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NEAR TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BRING SOME LINGERING PRECIP TO
NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...DESPITE
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEAR OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT...BUT THIS MAY GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN WV
MTNS AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO THE LOWLAND AREAS BY 12Z...BUT MORE
LIKELY THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE DRY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPS THAN WHAT OCCURRED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT SOME IN
THE LOWLANDS...THOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND MS VALLEY
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS WILL OCCUR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATED
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AS OF 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE COMMON THEME HERE IS THE VERY COLD
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE OFFICE. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ALSO ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO FUEL THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY.
USED A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
EXTENDED. WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...AS
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
CLIMBING TO FORECAST VALUES. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE AREA. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 35
AND 40 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 6 HRS AS IT WORKS INTO WV.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH VCSH FOR THIS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND
ALSO BKW BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE IS
LIMITING RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT CRW...HTS AND PKB BY
AROUND 0Z... THOUGH IT COULD AFFECT BKW...EKN AND CKB THROUGH AS
LATE AS 6Z...PERHAPS LATER ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS AS
THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. OVERALL...A STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE AT
THE PRESENT TIME AND THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO THROUGH 0Z. THE STRATUS DECK WILL
ALSO PERSIST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY THIN IN SOME PLACES AND
LEAD TO PATCHY BR BETWEEN 8Z TO 13Z AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO BKW AND
POSSIBLY THE HTS AND CRW VICINITY...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT EKN AND
CKW IT MAY TEND BUILDOWN OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND CU COULD BRING
IFR OR MVFR OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WV MTNS INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR WITH THE WED COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
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