517  
FXUS63 KJKL 200900  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
400 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD  
NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW BANDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE  
AREA. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA  
CURRENTLY FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE SLOWLY WANING. WE SHOULD THUS EXPECT TO SEE A NOTABLE  
DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS/BANDS OF SNOW BY  
DAYBREAK.  
 
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TREND  
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL  
BE TRICKY, WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING  
TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING,  
WHILE SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, HIGHS WILL BE  
NEAR 30 BELOW NORMAL FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST WEEK  
OF THE YEAR.  
 
WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH MID- AND  
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH MODELS  
SUGGESTING SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALVES OF THE CWA. HAVE THUS  
INTRODUCED 15 POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THESE AREAS. THE  
GFS SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES DEPICT VALUES AS HIGH AS 3.5  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON  
AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGES.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS AND HIGHS  
TUESDAY SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATED THAN FOR MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOWS TONIGHT NOT MUCH COLDER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS, POTENTIALLY, WITH  
HIGHS FORECAST INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
TUESDAY EVENING, A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL  
OFF HEADING LATER IN THE EVENING. A TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO  
PUSH EAST OF THE STATE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEMS DEPARTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS  
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A GENERAL RANGE OF 5 ABOVE TO  
FIVE BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS, OR APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO, AND LONG EXPOSURE TO THE OUTDOORS SHOULD BE  
LIMITED.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN LIEU OF THE  
EXITING SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,  
WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, RISING INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 30S, THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER  
THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.  
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT  
REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS QUIET WEATHER  
IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPILLS SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS MAY  
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES EARLY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER  
IN THE DAY, FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM  
PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, ACROSS EASTERN  
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH AND EAST OVER KENTUCKY  
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY OUT AHEAD  
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY  
UPPER 40S, WITH LOWS FALLING AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT  
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
SEVERAL SNOW BANDS EXIST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE EAST OF  
INTERSTATE 75 TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. THESE BANDS WILL PRIMARILY  
IMPACT KSJS AND KJKL BEFORE DIMINISHING BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.  
WITHIN THESE BANDS, IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH  
LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BANDS AND SNOW SHOWERS,  
CIGS ARE EITHER LOW-VFR OR HIGH-MVFR, AND A GENERAL IMPROVING  
TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AND SOUTH TO NORTH  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.  
 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY AT 7 TO 10 KT  
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN  
ANY SNOW BANDS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN SLACKENING TO  
AROUND 5 KT FROM THE SAME DIRECTION TOWARD 12Z. WINDS SHOULD  
TREND MORE WESTERLY AT ABOUT 5 KT TO END THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CMC  
SHORT TERM...GREIF  
LONG TERM...GINNICK  
AVIATION...CMC  
 
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