745  
FXUS63 KJKL 282000  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
 
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE MODEL DATA  
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE BEST GUESS  
FOR NOW IS THAT STORMS THAT WILL BE FORMING TO OUR WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF  
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING. ANY STORM THAT DOES MAKE INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE  
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND  
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE  
NECESSARY TO BEGIN THE EVENING SHIFT. THE FIRST SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 22Z, AND  
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH  
NIGHTLY LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW  
NIGHT, AND HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON  
SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 7 TO  
12 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
 
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE BULK OF THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ALL DEPICT A STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE  
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A  
DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY. THIS  
LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE NORTHERLY THAN  
THE ECMWF. BOTH ARE QUITE DEEP, THOUGH, WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING  
THROUGH KENTUCKY. THIS BOWLING BALL OF A LOW THEN BARRELS INTO THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING SIMILAR, BUT STILL WITH THE  
GFS LEADING THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE  
OTHERS LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT LEAST THROUGH  
MID WEEK. AS THIS LOW TRANSITIONS PAST TO THE NORTH THE CORE OF ITS  
ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING WITH  
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NODE PASSING EARLY TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL  
THEN SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE ZONAL TYPE OF FLOW  
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND  
REACHES THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WRAPPING UP MORE  
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY 12Z FRIDAY - QUICKEST AND  
FURTHEST EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN THE OTHERS. THIS LOW WILL THEN  
SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH OFF TO THE EAST - MAINTAINING THE LOW  
HEIGHTS AND CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE  
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL  
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM THE BLEND.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID END TO THE WEEKEND  
AHEAD OF A DRYING OUT COLD FRONT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST  
PLACES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY  
MORNING WITH A THREAT FOR STORMS AS WELL AS USHERING IN A COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR MASS. THIS AIR QUICKLY GETS REPLACED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF  
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT STALLS  
NEARBY WITH A CONCERN FOR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THAT AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE LATTER  
PART OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM  
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY JUST SHOWERS AND  
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES - A FAR CRY FROM THOSE THAT WE WILL SEE  
THIS WEEKEND.  
 
RAISED TEMPS A TAD ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND BEING  
RAIN FREE. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES EACH  
NIGHT - PARTICULARLY FOR RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES EARLY SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, FINE TUNED THE POPS TO TIGHTEN  
THEM UP WITH THE FROPA ON MONDAY MORNING AND HEADING INTO THE  
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. SCT TO BKN HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED  
RAIN SHOWERS, WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING  
AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY 22Z TODAY. THE FORECAST  
DETAILS BECOME QUITE MURKY AFTER THAT, AS THE MODEL DATA HAS STILL  
NOT SETTLED ON ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS THAT  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY  
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. SOME  
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT  
JKL, SYM, AND SJS WILL HAVE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SEEING A SHOWER  
OR STORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 5Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY  
OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ANY TAF SITE THAT EXPERIENCES A  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...GREIF  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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