408
FXUS63 KJKL 060617
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATED
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAINFALL WHICH WAS
ESPECIALLY HEAVY IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES
HAS ALLOWED SOME OF OUR VALLEYS TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHRA/TSRA HAVE ALL SETTLED INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE APPLACHIAN MTNS. SAT PIC INDICATING ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS ERN KY AND EXPECT A FEW CU TO CROP UP DURING THE DAY
BUT CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF ISOLATED
SHRA POPPED UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO MINOR TO
MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILEING IN WILL ONLY SUPRESS THE BOUNDARY TO
THE SRN BORDER OF TN AND THE NEXT S/WV TO APPROACH TUE WILL SEE THIS
BNDRY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL PCPN. EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM FROM TODAYS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80 TO AROUND 90 BY TUE.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALSO FEATURES FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OF A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH A
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THAN THE MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED ECMWF FROM 00Z ON THE 5TH. AS A RESULT HAVE
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
WHICH DOES BRING A MORE GENTLE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK BEFORE
GRADUALLY BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH THE RIDGE LATE IN
THE PERIOD...ITS NORTHERN JET STREAM IS ALMOST 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE FROM THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...FOR EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND THIS WILL BE IMMATERIAL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AS A FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ORDER. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
CLEAR...PER THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY SO HAVE RUN WITH MODERATE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING THEM HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS A GOOD
DEAL DIFFERENT THEN THE GFS AND ITS IDEA OF SWEEPING THE FRONT
THROUGH AND DRYING US OUT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WITH
ITS WEAKER FRONT ALSO PUSHES RETURN MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA
QUICKER THAN THE GFS RESULTING IN CONTINUING POP CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
/06Z TO 06Z/
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS. THE BIG STORY IS THE PATCHY FOG WHICH IS ESPECIALLY
PREVALENT AT THE MID SLOPE AND LOW RIDGES AND HAS ALSO FORMED IN SOME
OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING AND WILL BE
GETTING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER CLOUD DECK HAS ERODED. AS SUCH...THE
RADIATIONAL EFFECTS SHOULD FILL IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS WITH FOG. THE
FOG SHOULD BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH IN HEATING. AFTER
BURNING OFF...THE AREA WILL STAY VFR UNTIL ABOUT 6Z WHEN SOME MORE
MVFR FOG WILL BE STARTING TO FORM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JJ
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