481  
FXUS63 KJKL 180553  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
 
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. THE LATEST OBS WERE INGESTED  
INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. NO UPDATE  
IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS, AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. CLEARING HAS  
TAKEN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND HAVE FRESHENED UP THE SKY  
COVER TRENDS THROUGH DAWN. STILL THINK THAT THE MORE UPSLOPE-LIKE  
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER CLEARING FROM WORKING  
IN UNTIL A BIT LATER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
STEADY RAIN HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST, WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS  
WORKING IN FROM THE BLUEGRASS, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED THE FLOOD  
WATCH EARLY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH  
SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, BEFORE  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND  
DEW POINTS, WHICH SHOULD STEADILY COOL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S LOOK ON TARGET. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
AREA ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS NOW WORKING IN FROM  
CENTRAL KY AND TN IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME SNOW OR  
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN FLEMING  
COUNTY WHERE REPORTS OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH WERE RECEIVED.  
AS NOTED THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF  
CENTRAL KY WITH RAIN RATES NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDERS HAVING  
DECREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR AS WELL.  
 
THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD AFFECT THE VA BORDER COUNTIES FOR ABOUT  
ANOTHER TWO HOURS AND SHOULD BE OVER AROUND 7 PM WITH RAIN AND  
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF AND ENDING OVER FAR WESTERN  
AND NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGIN TO  
DEPART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER WELL INTO THE  
NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS BUILD DOWN FOG ANTICIPATED IN  
THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE  
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED  
TONIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CLOUDS LINGERING EVEN  
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LOWS SHOULD BE AT OR JUT  
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MID  
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL  
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AS WELL. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT FOR  
MOST OF THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL  
LEVELS.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD  
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  
INITIALLY THOUGH, THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS IN  
THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MIN T FOR MANY CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS WILL  
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MIN T FOR SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR 40 IF THE UPPER AND  
PERHAPS MID 30S. AT THIS POINT DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS COOP MOS  
GUIDANCE FORM THE GFS MIGHT SUGGEST WHICH WAS LOW TO MID 30S FOR  
THESE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS, OPTING TO TREND ON THE  
ORDER OF 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND FOR THESE NORMALLY COLDER  
LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND A  
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA  
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME  
SHOWERS ONGOING TO START THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUILDS, HEIGHTS WILL SHOOT UPWARDS EARLY IN  
THE WEEK. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY ANOMALOUS HIGH HEIGHTS  
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT EASILY BREAKING  
SOME RECORD HIGHS AND PERHAPS ALL TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGHS. THE  
FEBRUARY RECORD HIGHS SIT AT 79 FOR JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. WE  
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE TO BREAK THAT AT JACKSON, BUT LONDON MAY  
BE CLOSER.  
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK, WITH  
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY DOESN'T  
LOOK FANTASTIC, BUT SHEAR IS GREAT. THUS, WE COULD SEE A POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS COME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY TRENDS UPWARDS. THIS WILL BE  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH  
THE RECORD WARMTH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME  
QUESTION HOW LONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA LATE  
NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH GROUND ALREADY VERY  
SATURATED WITH NEAR RECORD FEBRUARY RAINFALL AND RIVERS RUNNING  
HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MORE FLOODING CONCERNS MAY RETURN BY  
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
 
EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CLOUDS, WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 9 OR 10Z. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO  
MVFR, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFTER 12Z, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS  
TONIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...AR  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...KAS  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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