195
FXUS63 KJKL 071945
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATED
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
MONDAY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
DO NOT EXPECT THE BROADER VALLEYS TO BE AS WARM NEAR THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...
UNDERCUTTING THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS TO WORK WITH.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. THE CURRENT FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH THE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPDATED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
/18Z TO 18Z/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AT DUSK. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
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