684
FXUS63 KJKL 051150 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- HAZY SKIES LINGER FROM DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND STAY AROUND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRI AND SAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AND A TOUCH OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE REMNANTS OF THE HIGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT - WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES ON THE VIRGINIA SIDE OF
THE STATE LINE - WHERE SOME SFC PRESSURE WEAKNESS WAS NOTED. THIS
MEANT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. SPECIFICALLY, READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE UPPER 60S ON THE HILLS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MORE
SHELTERED LOW SPOTS. AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AGAIN THIS NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING
SIGNS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ON SATELLITE AND IN SOME OF THE
OBS - AHEAD OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE QUICK EXIT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5H RIDGE
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING. LOCALLY, THIS ALLOWS HEIGHT
FALLS AS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH SLOUCHES INTO THE STATE
ALONG WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
CARRY A SUCCESSION OF PERTURBANCES THROUGH THE STATE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY
CROSSING WEST TO EAST IN THE FAIRLY FAST FLOW. THE SMALL MODEL
SPREAD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SUPPORT USING THE NBM
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO ADD IN SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST
CAMS FOR POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
WITH LULLS AT NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS AND
LINGERING CONVECTION TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DISTINCTIONS, AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FRIDAY SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OWING TO THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
LIKELY PROMPTING AN MCS TO SURVIVE INTO THE REGION THAT MORNING
AND COME EAST WHILE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST GOOD
VENTING ALOFT FOR ANY STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LONG
HODOGRAPHS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
THESE STORMS BUT ALSO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED QLCS TORNADO - DEPENDING ON THE STORM
EVOLUTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES - ASIDE FROM
THIS MORNING'S TERRAIN DIFFERENCES - DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
NBM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM STARTING POINT FOR THE LONG TERM
CONSISTED OF ADDING IN SOME TERRAIN BASED DISTINCTIONS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A CONTINUED WET PATTERN OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT BUT THE NBM GUIDANCE IS SOLIDLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD - ENHANCING CONFIDENCE.
THE PREVIOUS DETAILED LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE 04/12Z MODEL SUITE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING
SHOWS A BROADLY-TROUGHED TO QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ~535 DAM LOW OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TO OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
COASTAL LOW IS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIES
DRAPED FROM THE MAINE COAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NY/PA TWIN
TIERS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER AND THEN MORE WESTWARD
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KS/OK.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GENERALLY GOOD AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD IS NOTED THEREAFTER, BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN CAN STILL BE ASCERTAINED. THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE DIRECT
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FROM
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD HAVE EXITED OR BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST BY 12Z. MEANWHILE, THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE
AND SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH ALOFT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND
THERE ARE NOW LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 2 ROUNDS OF NOTABLE RAINFALL
TO END THE WEEK, ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE OTHER
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY, EACH WITH THE PASSING OF A STRONGER VORT MAX
ALOFT. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND
STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST ROUND AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE NORTH OF OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM ANY EARLY
DAY CONVECTION. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE SETTLED INTO OUR AREA WHEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. (THE MORE NOTABLE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY). MODEL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS SEASONABLE LEVELS
OF DESTABILIZATION ON FRIDAY UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE -- MLCAPE UP
TO AROUND 1,500 J/KG -- WHILE EBWD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS OR
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT. THUS, THE SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ENS AND NAEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
PWATS NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMO FRIDAY
EVENING, CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE.
PWATS ARE LIKELY TO SURGE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE,
BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT TO THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS LESS CERTAIN.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS, RELATIVELY THIN CAPE, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS HAS WARRANTED WPC
RAISING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. COMPARED TO RECENT MODEL SUITES, THE COLD FRONT NOW
APPEARS TO HANG AROUND LONGER SATURDAY NIGHT OR EVEN INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS IT DISSIPATES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF DIURNALLY MODULATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM 500H
LOW/TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DROPPING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, REINVIGORATING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
FRONT COULD STALL OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY
WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS,
SOGGY WEATHER COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SENSIBLY SPEAKING, FOR FRIDAY, EXPECT ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUN IN THE MORNING THEN YIELDS TO RISING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL THEN LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY
EVENING OR PERHAPS LATER. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON LINGER FOR SATURDAY AND, TO A
LESSER DEGREE, ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO 80F
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SOME FOG IS FOUND IN THE VALLEYS AND IS BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE SME
SITE WHILE SPRINKLES ARE NOTED IN THE FAR EAST. LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS COULD ENCROACH ON
THE TAF SITES DURING THE 16Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. PROB30 GROUPS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WERE USED FOR THIS THREAT WITH CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEFLY STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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