744
FXUS63 KLMK 091130
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
..MESOSCALE UPDATE
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LMK CWA
FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS NOW. SNOW DEPTH AMOUNTS IN THAT REGION ARE ON THE
1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO KNOCK THE WARNING DOWN TO
ADVISORY LEVEL FOR LOGAN...WARREN...AND SIMPSON COUNTIES. KEPT THE
WARNING GOING NORTH OF THERE IN AREAS WHERE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IS
FALLING AND MORE SNOW HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT HEADLINES ONLY
GO THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR...WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
END UP BEING SOMEWHAT TRICKY. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CAUSE FREEZING OF WET ROADWAYS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW JUST
BEFORE IT ENDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS WILL SINK THROUGH
THE TEENS.
MANY THANKS TO WBKO FOR COLLABORATION.
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
OUR WINTER WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
NEBRASKA/IOWA AND THE SFC LOW OVER LOUISIANA/ALABAMA AT 730Z ARE
WORKING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SNOW WAS MORE UNIFORM LAST EVENING WHEN IT FIRST STARTED
SPREADING 1-3 INCHES AT IT/S PEAK FROM BOWLING GREEN TO LOUISVILLE
TO FRANKFORT. NOW THE HEAVIER POCKETS ARE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND
BANDED ALL THE WAY OUT TO EASTERN MISSOURI. SO LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE PRECIP IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18-20Z ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...THAT WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE FREEZING LINE AT
745Z RAN FROM ABOUT BUTLER COUNTY TO LARUE COUNTY TO LINCOLN COUNTY
IN KENTUCKY AS WARMER AIR WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS MATCHED UP FAIRLY WELL WITH NAM12 RAW SFC TEMPS SO HAVE USED
THIS MODEL FOR PRECIP TYPE. SOME AREAS IN OUR SOUTH FORECAST AREA
(FA) WERE ALREADY PLAIN RAIN THIS MORNING INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN.
THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH WITH THE BEST WARM SURGE
OCCURRING BETWEEN 12-15Z CHANGING AREAS OVER OUR SOUTH AND EAST FA
TO RASN OR PLAIN RAIN. AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP NEARS...COLDER
AIR WILL AGAIN PUSH BACK IN CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. A QUICK
BURST OF 1 OR MAYBE 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FA AS THIS OCCURS.
BECAUSE SNOW TOTALS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE BLUEGRASS WERE ONLY
1-2 INCHES AND THE WARM SURGE WILL CUT DOWN ON FUTURE SNOW
ACCUMS...WILL DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY...THIS INCLUDES THE LEXINGTON
AREA. FARTHER SOUTH FROM ALLEN COUNTY TO HART COUNTY TO LINCOLN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...PRECIP HAS TURNED TO RAIN AND LITTLE
TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEREFORE ANY ADVY AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY WILL BE
DROPPED. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AREA...MINUS THE
BLUEGRASS...AS IS.
A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE A QUICK REFREEZE OF
WET AND SLUSHY ROADS. BE CAREFUL ON BOTH THE TUESDAY MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTES!!
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH
TONIGHT WHICH MAY CAUSE BLOWING OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FA.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REACHING FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT WE WILL EXPERIENCE
STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
PLUS WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COLD FLOW OFF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WITH
SOME OF THE SHOWERS DROPPING A QUICK HALF INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE
BLUE GRASS. OVERALL A VERY UNPLEASANT MORNING IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. AS THE CANADIAN RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH WE WILL HAVE DRY CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY SPARK SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WILL GO BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD CANADIAN AIR DIVING SOUTH OVER SNOWCOVER.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE TAF SITES WITH BOTH
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES THIS MORNING.
HAVE SIDED WITH 6Z NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMP PROFILES AND PRECIP TIMING
FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE DECENT PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18-20Z BEFORE REALLY LIGHTENING UP. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SDF SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW. BWG IS RAIN AT
1110Z AND WILL CONTINUE RAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE CHANGING TO
-RASN AND THEN ALL -SN BY 15Z BEFORE ENDING. LEX IS RASN MIX
CURRENTLY WITH BRIEF FZRA IN THERE AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO WARM AT LEX THIS MORNING CHANGING PRECIP TO -RASN BY 15Z
AND THEN BACK TO -SN BY 18Z BEFORE ENDING.
WE/LL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGS LIGHT -SN BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WELL
BELOW FREEZING AND CRANKING UP WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-27KTS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KYZ023>035-038-039-045>047-053-054-061-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KYZ036-037-040>043-048-049-055>057-070>072.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
MESOSCALE.........13
SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........AML
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