768  
FXUS63 KLMK 290525  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016  
 
JUST A QUICK UPDATE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON ACROSS THE REGION.  
A DISORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR  
CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SSE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE ALSO  
BEEN NOTED, BUT THE OVERALL TRENDS ARE WEAKENING. A FEW QUICK BURSTS  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN  
20 AND 30 MPH.  
 
WEST OF I-65, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR SOME  
ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS. IN FACT, CURRENT SEVERE WARNED STORM  
NEAR EVANSVILLE, IN SITS ON THE NOSE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KNOTS. GOOD WIND SIGNATURE OFF THE VWX  
RADAR IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING 1200 J/KG OF D-CAPE IS LIKELY  
PRODUCING A WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS IT  
APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA, BUT WILL NOTE THAT OUTFLOW HAS ALREDY  
GOTTEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE REFLECTIVITY, SO ANTICIPATE IT BEING SUB-  
SEVERE WHEN IT ARRIVES. STILL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH CANT BE RULED OUT  
FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE HANCOCK/OHIO/BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY REGION.  
 
OVERALL, THINK THE FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS HAVE DECENT MOTION, COVERAGE IS LIMITED, AND  
OVERALL RATES ARE WEAKER.  
 
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016  
   
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL KY CANCELLED
 
 
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF OUR  
CWA AS RAINFALL HAS ENDED. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR  
STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT  
HAS DIMINISHED.  
 
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WILL BE ON CLUSTER OF STORMS  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IN. LATEST HI RES DATA TAKES THE CLUSTER TO THE  
OHIO RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH INITIAL  
COVERAGE. GIVEN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A WEAK TRIGGER IN THE  
FORM OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY WILL  
MENTION 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL KY AROUND SUNSET. SOME OF THESE AREAS DO HAVE LOWER FLASH  
FLOOD GUIDANCE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WITH SLOW MOVEMENT  
LOCALIZED HYDRO PROBLEMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, DON'T FEEL  
THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN OR CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A NEW HEADLINE AT  
THIS TIME.  
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016  
   
..RAIN TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING
 
 
HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE WEST OF  
WHAT SHOULD BE THE FINAL AREA OF PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION HAVE  
KEPT THE WATCH GOING IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. RAINFALL RATES  
IN THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WHAT HAS  
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER  
CONTINUES TO EXCEED 2 INCHES, WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT MAKE THE  
FINAL CALL ON TRIMMING THE LAST OF IT ONCE THE RAIN HAS EXITED.  
 
WITH ALL BUT A FEW AREAS TO THE WEST OF LOUISVILLE HAVING HAD AN  
INCH OR MORE OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY, PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY LATE  
TONIGHT. RATHER THAN SPLIT HAIRS ON LOCATION, WILL INCLUDE IT IN  
ALL AREAS, WHICH MATCHES UP WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.  
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT LOBE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S RAIN, WE  
GET ABOUT A 24-HR REPRIEVE OF ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP. DEW POINTS  
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70, THOUGH, SO DISORGANIZED PRECIP - IN  
THE FORM OF AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY. 30-40  
POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH CONSIDERING LACK OF DYNAMICS, BUT WITH  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARM  
THE SURFACE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS, WHICH ARE RIGHT AT FORECAST HIGHS,  
IN THE MID 80S.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 70-75.  
   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016  
 
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE  
BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LARGE, RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE  
STRETCHING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/4 OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS  
IN PLACE, WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO  
OUR NORTH. THE RIDGE DOES FLATTEN A BIT OUT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND,  
WITH HINTS THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND REINTENSIFY SOMEWHAT. ALL IN ALL, HOWEVER, THE DAILY FORECASTS  
WILL VARY LITTLE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM THE MID 80S  
TO AROUND 90, WHILE MINIMUM READINGS STAY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE.  
WHILE POPS ARE INCLUDED IN EVERY FORECAST PERIOD, THIS DOES NOT MEAN  
DAILY RAIN FOR EVERYONE, AS THE HIT-OR-MISS NATURE OF THE STORMS  
WILL MIMIC THAT OF THE PAST WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
 
MAIN TAF CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR BWG, FOLLOWED BY  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. A WEAKENING LINE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH BWG, AND WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF  
THE REGION BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THINK THIS INITIAL SURGE WILL  
SHUNT THE ACTIVITY MORE OFF THE ESE.  
 
THEN THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT LEX. THINK THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND  
BWG SHOULD KEEP FOG FORMATION TO A MINIMUM. LEX WILL STAND THE BEST  
CHANCE TO SEE IFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE  
RAINFALL TODAY. HAVE FAVORED MORE STRATUS THAN FOG WITH THIS CYCLE  
AS IT APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVELS  
MIXED. SOME LIGHT FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SDF AS  
WELL, BUT WILL LEAVE JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW.  
 
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, LEAVING  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ANY SITE, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH  
LOWER THAN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL  
BE OUT OF THE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.........BJS  
SHORT TERM.....JBS  
LONG TERM......JBS  
AVIATION.......KJD  
 
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