653
FXUS63 KLMK 260721
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY, AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
* CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS WE KEEP REINFORCING BROAD BUT MILD
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUE
TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT
RAIN. THE NEXT SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE, DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING, AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NE OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO
NEAR SOMERSET. IT'S STILL A LOW-PROBABILITY, LOW-QPF EVENT WITH NO
MORE THAN A 20% CHANCE AND JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIP IF ANY DOES FALL. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING EVEN ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS REGION. WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THERE TO MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS, BUT THE NEXT
IMPULSE WILL TAKE A TRAJECTORY FARTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY'S SYSTEM.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING,
THOUGH ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OFF THURSDAY IN A NW FLOW PATTERN WITH
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DRIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SPINS SLOWLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. MODEST STRENGTHENING OF A SW LLJ ACROSS
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THU INTO THU
NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME,
BUT WE COULD REALIZE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HIGHS THU WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S, WITH
NEAR 70 F EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
BY FRIDAY, THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT. BROAD, ROBUST SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF A
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE UP THE MS AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS. AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR, WE SHOULD DRY OUT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE TRICKY, WITH SOME BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS. FOR NOW, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF WE END
UP WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF SUN OR PARTIAL SUN, WE MAY NEED TO BOOST
HIGHS MULTIPLE DEGREES AREA-WIDE. WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING,
EXPECT WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY PM.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SEPARATE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN KS.
EXPECT A VERY MILD NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLOODING. SATURDAY, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER
THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS. A FAIRLY ROBUST 40-45+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ IS
FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE RELATIVELY STABLE, STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER
THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, AND SEVERE STORMS, WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY,
EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND
CENTRAL KY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MEANINGFUL OVERLAP OF APPRECIABLE SFC-
BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN, THE PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE QLCS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT, ROBUST LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AND AT LEAST POSSIBLE DESTABILIZATION OF A
MOIST (TDS NEAR 60 F) WARM SECTOR. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAINFALL/CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY YIELD AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. AFTER A FEW WARM DAYS, HIGHS WILL BE BACK
IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE STAYING UP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE HAS GENERATED SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH COULD BUILD DOWN
AT TIMES INTO A HIGH-BASED STRATO-CU, BUT WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR
CIG/VIS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MORNING.
LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP CLOSER TO 10 KT FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE'LL REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH-BASED CU AROUND 6K FEET DURING
THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...RAS
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