787  
FXUS63 KLMK 291257  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
857 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016  
   
..FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 855 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A BAND NORTH OF LOUISVILLE AND OVER  
OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE ROTATING  
SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT  
TO THE EAST. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING EARLIER ONSET IN  
OUR BLUEGRASS REGION, BUT THE FOCUS THIS HOUR IS FARTHER EAST THEN  
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF THAT AREA SEEING  
BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN NOT AS EARLY AS WHAT IS  
SHOWN BY THOSE MODELS NOW. HAVE PAINTED A HIGH-END CHANCE IN THE  
BLUEGRASS, BUT WITH LIGHT QPF AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS.  
 
LOCATION OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT, FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7 KFT,  
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITH  
ANY OF THE TALLER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THAT DEVELOP.  
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HANG RIGHT OVER KENTUCKY FOR  
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE SHORT TERM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS  
IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WHILE THERE IS EXCELLENT  
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSION AND TRACKS, THERE  
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND  
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.  
 
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVERHEAD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WE SEE A BIT OF  
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD CORE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS  
RESULTS IN STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT FOR  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON MODEL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS, THE  
DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, SO WE COULD  
SEE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. WIND FIELDS LOOK RATHER CHAOTIC  
AND DISORGANIZED, SO WE DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL BE A WEATHER HAZARD  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS, WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE  
CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE CHAOTIC LOOKING  
TEMPERATURE MAP THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE'LL SEE  
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS. OUR FAR NE  
COULD BE A TOUCH COLDER WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...WHILE SOME OF  
OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR A SHORT TIME.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS  
WILL BE AROUND...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.  
 
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THE  
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST  
SECTIONS WITH PERHAPS DRIER CONDITIONS DOWN ACROSS OUR SE SECTIONS.  
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH OUR  
SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE SOME UPPER 60S IN SPOTS.  
   
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...  
 
THE LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO LIFT  
OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL MODEL RUN TO RUN  
CONSISTENCY IS GETTING BETTER IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, WE  
EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE. GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND  
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE  
LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 50S ONCE AGAIN.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
BY SUNDAY, THE CLOSED LOW WILL START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH AND  
THEN NORTHEAST AS A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN  
US. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS, WE'LL SEE HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE  
EASTERN US RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION.  
HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  
SOME LOWER 80S LOOK TO RETURN TO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DROPPED QUITE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY  
FORECAST THIS MORNING. BWG/SDF REMAIN VFR AND LEX IS CURRENTLY MVFR  
AS OF 630AM. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE UPPER LOW  
OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS AS WELL BUT FEEL  
THOSE CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM. BY THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GO HIGH END MVFR OR  
VFR. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND GO WITH VFR.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BETWEEN W-NW-N THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.........RJS  
SHORT TERM.....MJ  
LONG TERM......MJ  
AVIATION.......AMS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page