008  
FXUS63 KLMK 020520  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA AND IS NOW STRETCHED  
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE  
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. HOWEVER, THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER  
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED  
TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS ARE  
FALLING QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND  
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THEREFORE, DEWPOINTS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT  
OVERNIGHT.  
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IS SHUTTING  
QUICKLY, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSS OUR  
REGION. HAVE SOME SMALLER CELLS ON RADAR, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
LIGHTNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA  
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BRING  
SOME COOLER AIR BRIEFLY DOWN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, A FRONT WILL SLOWLY START LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN. MODELS  
SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR  
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS  
WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. CLOUD  
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COOL ON THE NORTH SIDE  
OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT WE SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF  
THE OHIO RIVER AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.  
   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO  
NEXT WEEK...  
 
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO  
VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
SUNDAY MORNING, THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SHOULD BE OVER OR JUST NORTH  
OF A SDF/LEX LINE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THAT FRONT  
AND TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. TO THE SOUTH, WE CANNOT RULE OUT  
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE  
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD  
AREAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON  
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY AS PEAK PERIODS FOR THESE ACCUMULATIONS, AS A  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE AXIS FOR  
HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE GEM/GFS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE NORTH, FURTHER  
INTO IND'S FORECAST AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IN  
THE SOUTHERN KY, AND CONSEQUENTLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOURTH  
FIREWORKS. THE SREF AGREES WITH THIS THINKING, GOING WITH IT'S AXIS  
OVER CENTRAL IND'S AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SPREADS OVER CENTRAL  
KY AS WELL, INDICATIVE OF VARIANCES IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  
WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH ON TRENDS THOUGH TO SEE IF THIS SHIFTS BACK  
SOUTH, AND FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND THINKING.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION  
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES HERE. BY TUESDAY, THE  
GFS/GEM TAKE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC,  
EFFECTIVELY PULLING THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM US. THE 00Z EURO (AND THE  
NEW ONE COMING IN) KEEPS THE BOUNDARY OVER US THOUGH, CONTINUING  
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDWEEK. GEM BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE  
MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY, AND THESE TWO MODELS HAVE DONE BETTER OVER  
THE PAST 6 MONTHS AS FAR AS QPF FORECASTS GO. WILL LEAN THE  
SUPERBLEND THEIR WAY, WHICH MEANS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE  
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR TEMPERATURES, THE GENERAL  
TREND IS FOR A WARM UP AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  
 
FOR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEK, HAVE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT A  
LITTLE, WITH 3-4" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AND THEN  
DROPPING DOWN TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH ALONG OUR TN BORDER.  
 
SHOULD THE RAIN NOT HAPPEN AS OFTEN DOWN SOUTH, WE LIKELY WOULD SEE  
SOME MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND ON THE 4TH, WITH TEMPERATURES  
AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, LEADING TO  
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S. THOSE VALUES LOOK TO GO UP BY THE END  
OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND  
THIS DRIER AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE NOW. STILL  
THINK THAT KBWG WILL SEE SOME LIGHT FOG BETWEEN 02/09-13Z AND THEN  
QUICKLY MIX OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON  
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.........EER  
SHORT TERM.....RJS  
LONG TERM......RJS  
AVIATION.......MJ  
 
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