486  
FXUS63 KLMK 261054  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
654 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
 
ENERGY FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY  
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW  
SMALL, ISLD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE WITH RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER DEVELOPING AS WELL. ISLD-SCT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY THIS  
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A LULL OR JUST A FEW CELLS LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINES WITH  
PEAK INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE THREAT EXISTS, SOME OF THE  
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL,  
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH  
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT DON'T  
SEE SHOWERS, MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A  
STAGNANT, VERY MOIST AIRMASS.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS  
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
 
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THE  
THEME FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND  
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL KY. WHILE MEMORIAL DAY WAS LOOKING A BIT DRIER DUE TO  
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE LATEST MODELS DO SHOW  
SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTER MONDAY, MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR THE MIDWEEK FORECAST WILL BE ON  
THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. THE CENTER  
LINE OF THE CURRENT 5 DAY CONE OF UNCERTAINTY FROM THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ALBERTO MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY AS A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE THE  
EXACT TRACK, MOST MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
SYSTEM AFFECTING CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN DURING THE MIDWEEK  
TIMEFRAME. AS ALBERTO THEN MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH  
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM ALL OF THIS WILL BE WHETHER WE WILL  
SEE ANY FLOODING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BEAR  
WATCHING AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND MODELS GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE  
TRACK OF ALBERTO.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO  
AROUND 70. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S IT WILL  
FEEL QUITE LIKE SUMMERTIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. THE BIGGEST  
TAF CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SO FAR OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION SO BACKED THE TAFS DOWN TO  
VCSH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR T-STORMS  
WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SCT  
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE 17-0Z  
TIME FRAME. SOME COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AMS  
LONG TERM...EER  
AVIATION...AMS  
 
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