648  
FXUS63 KLMK 242307  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
 
AS OF MID AFTERNOON, A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE LATEST VISIBLE  
SATELLITE HAD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MINUS A FEW CUMULUS WEST OF I-65.  
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS CUT OFF LOW OFF  
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE WEAK RIDGING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WERE IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOW 80S WITH A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE  
MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S.  
 
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT  
TOWARD THE AREA. OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY  
AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST, HOWEVER LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,  
WE'LL SEE INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS MAY FUEL SOME  
ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS, MAINLY NORTH OF THE KY PARKWAYS INTO  
SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER, COVERAGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE HIGH SO  
POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. PLAN ON LOWS IN  
THE LOW 60S.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID/MUGGY DAY AS DEWPOINTS  
CREEP UP INTO THE LOW 60S, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. THIS INCREASED  
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL HELP  
SPARK A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES, STILL CAPPED AT ABOUT 30 PERCENT, WILL BE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. PLAN ON  
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. A MUGGY EVENING/NIGHT WILL THEN BE ON TAP  
WITH LOWS STAYING UP IN THE 60S.  
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL  
WORK TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, AT LEAST THURSDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO  
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY  
STAYING TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THE  
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ANY FURTHER AND ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO PASS MORE  
CLOSELY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, LOOK FOR A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND MILD/MUGGY  
OVERNIGHTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE MODEL CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES WERE CAPPED IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST PERIODS IN  
THE FORECAST, AND IT'S POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER,  
POPS DURING A FEW OF THESE PERIODS MAY BE ABLE TO BE COMPLETELY  
REMOVED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)
 
 
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.  
A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN  
MO/NORTHERN AR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM  
WELL AT ALL, THUS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR  
TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN BWG WHERE SOME OF THE LIGHT  
STRATIFORM RAIN MAY FALL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY AT KSDF/KLEX.  
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING AT  
SDF/LEX AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME  
GIVEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE A MENTION.  
 
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT  
ALL SITES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM........ZT  
LONG TERM.........ZT  
AVIATION..........KJD  
 
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