608  
FXUS63 KLMK 210529  
AFDLMK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
1229 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017  
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017  
 
A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING DOWN INTO CAROLINAS WHILE LOW  
PRESSURE WAS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER  
THIS MORNING'S FOG, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE  
ALLOWED READINGS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S, MAKING FOR A VERY  
PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY. SOME OF OUR OFFICIAL SITES WILL MAKE A RUN  
FOR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE, CURRENTLY STRETCHED  
FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, MOVES EAST  
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. NO FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT AS A COMBINATION  
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD KEEP  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH. PLAN ON WARMER LOWS IN THE LOW/MID  
50S.  
 
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF AND FORM A CLOSED LOW TOMORROW AS IT  
DROPS TOWARD NEW ORLEANS. MEANWHILE THE BULK OF THE NORTHERN STREAM  
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
OR FOCUS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY SO WHILE THERE SHOULD BE  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS, THINK THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL  
REMAIN ON THE SCATTERED SIDE AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT  
RANGE.  
 
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE  
SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW WILL PIVOT NORTH AND BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL  
KENTUCKY TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT, SO KEPT A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF  
LIKELY POPS THERE. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOK  
RATHER LIGHT, MAINLY ON THE ORDER OF 2/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.  
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
 
 
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM  
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
AHEAD OF IT, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S. ON  
THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA  
AND BE MORE TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE  
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.  
 
FOR THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, THE 20.12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC AND DYNAMIC SETUP LOOKS  
PRETTY CONSISTENT. A DEEPENING LOW WILL RACE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
TOWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF IT, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL SURGE MUCH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. INCREASED HIGHS IN THE  
MID 70S ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND, AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS UPPER 70S IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT  
LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH SBCAPE NEAR  
1000 J/KG AND A SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE SPC  
DAY 5 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM, A SURGE OF COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR  
NORMAL, AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
LOOK TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE AN  
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT  
VFR UNTIL THEN, HOWEVER A GRADUALLY LOWERING UPPER AND MID DECK WILL  
BE NOTED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STEADY OUT OF THE S OR SSW AROUND 10  
MPH.  
 
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, DEEPER  
MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL  
ALSO MENTION MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS DURING THIS TIME. LEX WILL HAVE  
THE BEST SHOT AT THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND LOWEST FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST MON FEB 20 2016  
 
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
LOUISVILLE:  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD WARM LOW: 51 (1878)  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD HIGH: 70 (1930*)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD WARM LOW: 61 (1922)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD HIGH: 71 (1992*)  
 
LEXINGTON:  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD WARM LOW: 54 (1997)  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD HIGH: 71 (1874)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD WARM LOW: 55 (1922)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD HIGH: 70 (1922)  
 
BOWLING GREEN:  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD WARM LOW: 54 (1897)  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD HIGH: 75 (1930*)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD WARM LOW: 55 (1961*)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD HIGH: 74 (1922)  
 
FRANKFORT:  
MON. FEB. 20 RECORD WARM LOW: 47 (1949)  
MON. FEB. 20 RECORD HIGH: 73 (2016)  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD WARM LOW: 47 (1906)  
TUE. FEB. 21 RECORD HIGH: 72 (1997)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD WARM LOW: 49 (1935*)  
WED. FEB. 22 RECORD HIGH: 72 (1922)  
 
* MEANS MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE, RECORD OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS AS  
WELL  
 

 
   
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM........ZT  
LONG TERM.........ZT  
AVIATION...BJS  
CLIMATE...ZT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IN Page Main Text Page