738
FXUS63 KLMK 071943
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
243 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A GREAT LAKES TROUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN UP AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 50 IN THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND
70 DEGREES BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)
QUIET WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND AWAY FROM
BRINGING THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF RICH MOISTURE IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE COOL FRONT AND HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REGAINS CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT QUITE WARM AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR
TUES/WED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN UP SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SO WE
EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL AROUND 23Z AND THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
AFTER THAT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 25KTS AFTER SURFACE
WINDS DIMINISH.
NEAR CALM WINDS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
BWG WITH FOG BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........JA
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