651
FXUS63 KLMK 150718
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG W-NW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
* COOL AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY.
* SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOLIDLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH A
DRYING W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S. MID-
LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD STILL ON TRACK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
BREEZY START TO THE DAY.
SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRETCHING BACK TO NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDDAY, WITH STRONGER FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO CRANK UP
THE GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECT FREQUENT 25-30 MPH GUSTS WITH A FEW PEAKS
AROUND 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A CLOUD SHIELD, MAINLY HIGH-BASED STRATO-CU, ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
VIRGA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED START TO THE
DAY AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER IN THE
EVENING. JUST ENOUGH OF A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT, SO LOOK FOR LOWS EITHER SIDE OF 40 TONIGHT, WITH
MINIMAL FROST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING WARMER EACH DAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS BY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THE LOW 60S BUT SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. WEAK SFC SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND WABASH
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS THIS WARM FRONT WORKS
ACROSS WESTERN KY, IT CLIPS THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF
OUR CWA INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
PASSING WARM FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT A LEE SIDE SFC STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL POSITION A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MI TO EASTERN OK JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP US WARM WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
ON FRIDAY, AND DRY DURING THE DAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AND ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 1 INCH TO A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN IN TO
NORTH CENTRAL KY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
YOU GO. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE THREAT OF SEVERE
APPEARS TO BE LOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TX
AND LIFTS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS
SYSTEM WORKS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW, THE THREAT OF SEVERE LOOKS LOW FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
MAIN IMPACT: GUSTY WINDS
CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS: HIGH
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION IS WELL-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, WITH WNW WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT TO AFFORD A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DURING THE MORNING.
UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH BY MIDDAY, AND THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE A
HIGH-BASED (5-6K FEET) STRATO-CU DECK AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE W-NW. WILL CARRY GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT SDF/LEX AND 20 KT AT
BWG, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
WINDS LAY DOWN TO AROUND 5 KT AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...RAS
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