214
FXUS63 KLMK 240454
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1254 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AS WELL WITH LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS TOMORROW
IN THE MID 80S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SOME PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY AS WELL
AS OTHER FOG FAVORED LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A STUBBORN UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP US
IN A NORTHWEST/WNW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER KANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...ACTING AS AN ANCHOR FOR A
COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. SATURDAY
MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
REACHING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS AND THEN WEST TO THE KANSAS LOW. THE
FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTION THAN
PREVIOUSLY...WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE AS COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR
TYPICALLY DO SLOW DOWN AND GET HUNG UP IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...PLUS THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER
FLOW.
IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL DEVELOP INVOF IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION. FOR THAT REASON WE WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN POPS EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
MAY HELP TO FIRE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED.
OVER THE WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THAT FRONT SETTLES IN.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEY FALL INTO SOME DISARRAY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND GEM ENSEMBLE SEEM TO
BE THE MOST IN AGREEMENT. GOING WITH THOSE SOLUTIONS...HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS
THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POP
UP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...AS OFTEN HAPPENS THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER WITHOUT A GOOD SIGNAL TO HANG OUR HAT ON RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRIMARILY DRY IN THE ZONES
RATHER THAN HAVING 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
PERIODS.
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF LOCATIONS
DURING THE 06Z THURSDAY-06Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS MAY BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KLEX AND KBWG BETWEEN 08Z-13Z
IN LOCALIZED FOG.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MACZKO
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