641
FXUS63 KLMK 072337
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
737 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* PLEASANT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY.
* ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS NE OK THIS EVENING, AND THEN
BE ABSORBED IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL
ALSO MOVE TOWARD US, HELPING TO DRAW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WORK INTO
SOUTHERN KY, IN ADDITION TO SOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. LUCKILY, THE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE
PRETTY WEAK, SO THE OVERALL 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR IS ONLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, DON'T EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD GET STRONG AS MODEST
INSTABILITY POOLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE POOLING WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE
PRESENCES OF 20-25 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE VALUES SUPPORT A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.
OVERALL, THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO REFLECT THE SPC MARGINAL RISK PRETTY
WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD OF OUR CWA. STORMS MAY GET A
LITTLE EXTRA JOLT/FOCUS FROM THE SURFACE COOL FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTER PART OF OUR CWA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH AND MAKE SURE SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENT DOESN'T LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT AND A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP LINGERING POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCES
LINGERING ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. SHOULD BE A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING
FOR UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MODELS HAVE MOSTLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND, AND
THE TREND IS FOR A DRY/PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE SURFACE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, AND THE MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES WON'T YET BE PUSHING ENOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE OUR WAY. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
SUNDAY. MAY HAVE TO KEEP A 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER, BUT OVERALL THE BULK OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE PRECIP FREE
WITH PLENTY OF PEEKS AT THE SUN. GFS IS THE WETTER OUTLIER HERE, SO
WILL PROBABLY LEAN ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AS THE CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST STATES FINALLY EJECTS NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THIS SLOW MOVING, MOISTURE LADEN FEATURE WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORM EACH DAY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE 70S, WITH MOST LOCATIONS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S RANGE EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF TO THE NE. THAT BEING SAID, WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR STORM. OVERALL, THIS
DAY SHOULD BE DRIER THAN NOT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
MID TO LOWER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TONIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH, WITH MVFR LIKELY AT BWG BY 06Z. FURTHER NORTH, CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS APPEARS POSSIBLE, BUT
THIS IS A LOWER RISK DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE ESE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE OZARKS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE LIMITS CONFIDENCE FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAF AND TIMING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW, AND COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. INCLUDED SOME PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST LIKELY TSRA TIMING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...EBW
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