077
FXUS63 KPAH 110816
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
DISCUSSION
MAIN ISSUES DEAL WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. PLUS TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS.
LARGE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING AND IN
RESPONSE RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AFTER THAT THE
GFS TAKES THE MAIN SYSTEM BODILY EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES
THE MAIN SYSTEM QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A WEAKER UPPER
LOW REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
PUSHING THE RAIN THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL THE SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES ABOUT
12-24 HOURS LATER.
SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL A BIT IN THE GRIDS...BUT DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES DUE TO MODEL DISPARITY. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE A
BIT LIMITED SO WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED THE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WARMER
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE LAST RUN.
NO MATTER WHICH MODEL ONE USES...THE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ON MODEL TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS.
AVIATION
/FROM 06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEVV AND KOWB THROUGHOUT THE VALID
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LIFR VISIBILITY AT KCGI AND PERHAPS MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KPAH OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR
RIVERS...LAKES...AND OTHER LOW-LYING MOISTURE-BEARING LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...SMITH
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