739
FXUS63 KPAH 040528
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TIED TO COLD FRONT TOMORROW...AND THEN WHEN/IF TO
INSERT POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VERY GOOD MIXING HAS OCCURRED TODAY...TAKING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NO MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
CLUE...SO HAD TO RIG IT THE HARD WAY. SHOWED A STEADY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT BELOW GUIDANCE. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE EAST...IF THE DEWPOINTS DO NOT RECOVER MORE
THAN EXPECTED. THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID WILL BE NEAR COOLER MET
GUIDANCE WHICH IS DEFINITELY ABOVE FREEZING.
THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND CLEAR OUT MUCH OF
THE AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME REASONABLE WARMING
IN MOST AREAS. GENERALLY STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST WHERE GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO HIGH GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSOLATION EXPECTED.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES. WITH THE QUICKER ARRIVAL OF
THE CLOUDS...MENTIONED THE SPRINKLES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
COLD DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. MAV AND MET ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES APART FOR HIGHS...SO TRIED
TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND TO LIMIT THE PAIN. WE CERTAINLY WERE NOT
AS COLD TODAY AS THOUGHT BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT...SO NOT CONFIDENT
IN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS...EVEN THOUGH WOULD NORMALLY LEAN TOWARD
THEM IN A POST FRONTAL SITUATION.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRETCH OF VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IN RETRIBUTION FOR
LAST WEEK/MONTHS COOL WET WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BRING A COLD
FRONT EASWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF DEALS A BLOW TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY
KEEPING THE QUAD STATE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED
A 20-30 POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WE MAY BE IN A
SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE A PERPETUAL POP IN DAY 7. ENJOY THE DRY
WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
AVIATION
MID LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN KEVV/KOWB
AREA...BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ON VSBY ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHIFT
WILL BE GRADUAL...MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED BY THE TAFS. LITTLE OR
NO CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY OR FOLLOW THE FRONT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
AVIATION...MY
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