975
FXUS63 KPAH 072307
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN ON THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH A STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY.
- AFTER A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY-SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS SET UP TO THE EAST WITH LOWS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARIZONA, AN UPPER JET MAX AHEAD OF
THE EASTERN LOW IS SENDING A BANK OF LOWER CLOUDS AND A PSEUDO
WARM FRONT CHARGING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. A BIT OF AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS OVERNIGHT.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO GET SHOVED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS WORK INTO THE 62-65 DEGREE
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIR AT 6.5-6.8 C/KM
YIELDING ABOUT 1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE MRGL SEVERE RISK WAS
EXPANDED OVER PART OF OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW AND 1/5 SEEMS ABOUT
RIGHT. THE RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND SHEAR LOOKS VERY
WEAK BUT A HAIL RISK COULD EMERGE IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS BUT PWATS ARE NOT
TOO CRAZY.
A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH AND KEEPS US IN MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
THIS RESULTS IN A FEW MORE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ON BOTH DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF 12Z GUIDANCE. THIS SURGE
IN HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO A SEVERE WEATHER RISK IF A TROUGH
CATCHES IT JUST RIGHT, AND CIPS ANALOGS/CSU-ML PRODUCTS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF THAT, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE JUST
ISN'T A STRONG ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SIGNAL TO LOCK ON TO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING DAY-TIME HOURS, BUT WILL STILL OFFER OVERNIGHT
LOWERING OF CLOUDS/CIGS EVEN INTO RESTRICTED CATEGORIES. PCPN
CHANCES PICK UP TMRW WITH CONTINUED CIGS AND VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
CARRYING THE DAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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