766
FXUS63 KPAH 021842
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KENTUCKY
PENNYRILE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF DOWNBURST IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AT
BEST.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN ARRIVES THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR
TERM, A WEAK IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. GIVEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM, A
BRIEF DOWNBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS AN
EMBEDDED 500 MB SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF MANITOBA, A TRAILING SFC
COLD FRONT WILL TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH QPF, BUT SCATTERED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A MORE ROBUST SECONDARY COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY BETTER, BUT STILL MODEST
AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 25 TO 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD BE TERRIBLY CONCERNING. THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DOES YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST SHOWING UP
TO 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF WHILE THE GFS/CMC REMAIN MORE SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WITH THE EPS ALSO BEING AN
OUTLIER AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE LREF ONLY OUTPUTS
ABOUT A 20 TO 40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS HAD A NORTH BIAS WITH QPF RECENTLY,
WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE BLEND BEING MORE PROBABLE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARMER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, BUT WILL FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FIRST AFORMENTIONED FRONT.
WHILE A QUICK REBOUND BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
80S IS PROGGED ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH A 1027
MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FA, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE PROBABLE WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DIPPING DOWN TO 7 TO 10C.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT KOWB
BETWEEN 19-23Z, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AROUND 20% TO
INCLUDE TAF MENTION. WINDS TURN CALM TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE TO 3-6 KTS OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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