521
FXUS63 KPAH 091203
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
UPDATE
IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL BE UPDATING
PUBLIC PRODUCTS SOON. PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE TO REMOVE HEADLINES
FROM ALL BUT MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN MISSOURI...AND TO END THE
ADVISORY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 15Z. ALSO WILL BE EXPIRING THE
WARNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF THE PURCHASE AREA AT
15Z. THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
RADARS SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT OVER
SERN MO...AND ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NW...ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY JUST AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW DIPPING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. IN THE SRN PENNYRILE REGION...SOME RAIN/
FREEZING RAIN WAS INDICATED. AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN THROUGH
SUNRISE...THE PCPN THERE SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END BY NOON EVEN IN THE EAST...AND
THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE ATTM.
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE PAH FCST AREA THIS MRNG. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED SFC
TROF OVER WRN KY WILL BE REPLACED BY COLDER/DRIER ARCTIC AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TIGHT MID LEVEL LOW.
THIS WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD LAST
THROUGH WED AFTN. WINDS MAY GUST ABOVE 30 MPH TODAY...AND TO 30
MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE NE ON WED. TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...SOME
WRAPAROUND SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE
REGION. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SERN HALF WILL SEE THE
SUN FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NEXT TWO BLUSTERY DAYS.
GFS/GEFS/ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A MINOR AMOUNT OF SNOW ON FRI...THOUGH TIMING IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. DURING THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SYSTEM...THIS
TIME POSSIBLY A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT
THE REGION. ATTM...PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN
THE FCST. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH DAY 7.
AVIATION
IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW
FAR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THE CLEARING/BREAKING LINE WILL
GO THROUGH THE DAY. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND WILL GUST OVER 25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VFR SNOWS REDEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BALLARD-
CARLISLE-FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-MCCRACKEN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-
CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
LYON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MISSISSIPPI.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-
GALLATIN-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-
WILLIAMSON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR EDWARDS-
FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-WABASH-WAYNE
IL-WHITE.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.
PUBLIC.....DB
AVIATION...DRS
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