240  
FXUS63 KPAH 221951  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
251 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
SO FAR, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED ACROSS OUR  
REGION. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN UP TO ONE-HALF INCH PER HOUR AT  
KOWB, DESPITE THE RATHER BENIGN APPEARANCE ON RADAR. PRECIP  
EFFICIENCY IS EXTREMELY HIGH DUE TO VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS  
AND PRECIP WATER VALUES JUST OUTSIDE THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CLOSE TO THE FORECAST,  
WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN (SREF). THE  
FORECAST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SREF  
AND THE WPC GUIDANCE. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE  
SHIED AWAY FROM THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THEY WERE SHOWING  
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP STORM TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH  
RANGE ACROSS WEST KY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  
BETWEEN ONE-HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF THIS HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN  
PARTS OF THE PENNYRILE REGION.  
 
THE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL IN  
PERSISTENT STORMS. SO FAR, SOLID CLOUDCOVER HAS KEPT INSTABILITY  
AND DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN  
EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT CENTER OF CINDY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE  
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER, AND IT SHOULD PASS  
RATHER CLOSE TO WEST KENTUCKY FRIDAY. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO  
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT  
EAST ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
 
A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY  
WILL BE MORE LIMITED DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL  
WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
LATE FRIDAY, EXITING THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KY FRIDAY  
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE PRECIP TO AN END, AND CLEARING  
IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
 
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA  
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH A BROAD TROF ACROSS THE CONUS, AND A RIDGE  
PARKED OVER THE SW U.S. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE  
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD IN SOME FORM. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,  
ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY  
FOR NOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SAY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR OUR NEXT  
SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS AND  
VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE IFR. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP FOR MUCH OF  
THIS EVENING, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A RENEWED  
PUSH OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN SE  
MISSOURI AND FAR WEST KY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE  
VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF  
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER  
STRONG ALOFT, BUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ILZ090-091-094.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOZ112-114.  
 
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ087-088.  
 
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MY  
LONG TERM...CN  
AVIATION...MY  
 
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