057
FXUS63 KPAH 142314
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA. MOST
RIVER POINTS HAVE CRESTED OR WILL SOON, BUT LEVELS WILL BE
SLOW TO FALL THIS WEEK FOR MANY POINTS.
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 992 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO IS NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SCATTERED CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
WHERE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS INCLUDING DCAPE REMAINS WELL
TO THE EAST, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH
MODEST FORCING AT BEST.
BY TUESDAY, A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
CAUSING 850 MB TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO NEAR 0 DEGC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO ROBUST
CAA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AS NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. A 1023 MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT,
CAUSING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE FA, WITH ISOLATED LOWER
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST.
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S IF NOT NEARING 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. WAA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS; HOWEVER,
A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A MUCH GREATER
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A
LARGE SPREAD IN TIMING; HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER RISK LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A COLD FRONT'S RECENT PASSAGE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER
IN ITS WAKE. SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLIES MAY CONTINUE UNTIL THE
RIDGE MOVES IN/OVERHEAD, ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. LOWER VFR
BASES WILL HAVE ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR LAG TIME BEFORE THEY SCATTER,
AND THEN TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST DIURNALLY ASSISTED
PARCELS WILL BRING SCT-BKN BASES INTO PLAY AGAIN DURING THE
PLANNING PHASE OF THE FORECAST, WITH CIGS MOST LIKELY FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST, ESP KEVV-KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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