373
FXUS63 KPAH 041522 AAA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED MORNING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ALL OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN KY
AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY NORTH OF A MARBLE HILL MO...TO VIENNA IL
TO CALHOUN KY LINE. OVER THE LAST HOUR...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA OF
ACTIVITY IS STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALL OF THIS. SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY HOLDING
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY.
STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE REALIZED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE SEVERITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS WE CAN DISSIPATE. STAY TUNED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LINE OF
POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN WAS UNDERWAY TO OUR NW AS A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE WNWRLY FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION.
THERE MIGHT BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN PARTS OF SRN IL BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A 850 MB JET KICKING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO SET UP AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE LOW MAY REMAIN BACKED FOR A
WHILE...CREATING A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THE BEST
GUESS ATTM OF THE LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS FROM AROUND PERRYVILLE MO
AT 00Z...MOVING ESE INTO WRN KY BY 06Z.
JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SVR...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEAT AND ENTER THE NWRN
CORNER OF THE PAH FCST AREA BY AROUND 21Z. THIS LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z-01Z...THEN BE THROUGH THE
KY PENNYRILE REGION BY 03Z. THE FCST TIMING OF THE STORMS REVEALS
THAT RESIDENTS OF THE KY PENNYRILE REGION OUTDOORS FOR THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF
TSTM ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE DECREASING CHANCES OF PCPN BEHIND THE
SFC LOW/FRONT...BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SHWRS OR EVEN TSTMS BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SWEPT AWAY. BY
15Z SUNDAY...THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW/HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL RULE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF A SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER
RIDGE. GENTLE RETURN FLOW WILL TEND TO RAISE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY/TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER DAY 5.
AVIATION
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECNTRL MISSOURI INTO
SRN ILLINOIS MOVING ESE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES SHOULD
SPREAD WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARRIED BEST
TSRA PROBS IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CW
PREV DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...CN
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