084
NOUS43 KJKL 122013
PNSJKL
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151800-
DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EST SAT JUL 12 2008
..MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN TO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND DEFICITS HAVE GROWN. THE
LATEST EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... RELEASED ON THURSDAY
JULY 10TH... SHOWS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS IN A MODERATE /D1/
DROUGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF A MOUNT VERNON... TO JACKSON... TO PIKEVILLE
LINE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS.
LOCAL AREA AFFECTED
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... MODERATE /D1/ TO ABNORMALLY
DRY /D0/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MCCREARY... WHITLEY... BELL...
AND HARLAN COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER BREATHITT... CLAY... ESTILL... FLOYD... JACKSON... KNOTT...
KNOX... LAUREL... LESLIE... LETCHER... MAGOFFIN... OWSLEY...
PERRY... PULASKI... ROCKCASTLE... AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
AS OF FRIDAY JULY 11TH... DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT WORSENED TO
THE POINT WHERE STATE OR LOCAL ACTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN. ALSO...
THERE ARE NO CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. SHOULD DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST OR WORSEN... ACTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
AS OF FRIDAY JULY 11TH... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE TOP
12 TO 72 INCHES OF SOIL ARE CURRENTLY AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
THE LATEST EDITION OF THE KENTUCKY WEEKLY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT...
ISSUED ON MONDAY JULY 7TH INDICATES THAT 36 PERCENT OF KENTUCKY
TOPSOIL IS RATED AT POOR OR VERY POOR FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND 33
PERCENT OF KENTUCKY SUBSOIL IS RATED AT POOR OR VERY POOR FOR SOIL
MOISTURE. DESPITE ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF KENTUCKY SOILS BEING IN POOR
OR VERY POOR QUALITY... OVERALL CROP REPORTS FROM TOBACCO FARMS AND
PASTURES ARE GOOD.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS
FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND MUCH
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN REGION. A BENEFICIAL SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW.
CLIMATE SUMMARY
FIVE OF THE LAST SIX MONTHS HAVE BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL AT THE
OFFICIAL SITES OF LONDON AND JACKSON. GENERALLY... THE SAME
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY... RESULTING IN GROWING PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. ALTHOUGH
RECENT RAINFALL HAS FAVORED THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE... THE
DEFICITS CONTINUE FROM OVER A YEAR AGO.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE SHORT... MEDIUM AND LONG
RANGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL
EAST KENTUCKY OBSERVING STATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION WHICH FELL THROUGH THE END OF JUNE. NOTICE THAT
OVERALL 1 YEAR DEFICITS ARE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH AND THAT AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ARE ACTUALLY IN A SURPLUS OVER THE LONG TERM.
IN THE SHORT TERM... AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN A DEFICIT...
WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE HAD RECENT RAIN AND ARE IN A SURPLUS.
MONTH DEPART| SINCE DEPART| SINCE DEPART
STATION COUNTY TO DATE NRML | 1JAN08 NRML | 1JULY07 NRML
| |
CAVE RUN LAKE ROWAN 1.74 -0.26 | 27.56 +3.50 | 51.98 +5.62
WEST LIBERTY MORGAN 1.19 -0.60 | 23.65 +0.62 | 46.36 +2.48
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 3.70 +2.05 | 24.89 -2.00 | 42.72 -6.66
LONDON ASOS LAUREL 1.61 -0.02 | 19.36 -5.92 | 36.18 -11.23
MIDDLESBORO BELL 3.00 +1.46 | 23.03 -4.61 | 37.35 -13.94
CLOSPLINT HARLAN 2.55 +0.57 | 24.56 -7.50 | 45.14 -14.78
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT... THE PROPER INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LARGER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS... HOWEVER OVERALL RAINFALL WILL MOST
LIKELY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE DURING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND... HOWEVER GENERAL HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY JULY 18TH THROUGH THURSDAY JULY
24TH... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTHS OF JULY... AUGUST... AND
SEPTEMBER OF 2008... ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
AS OF FRIDAY JULY 11TH... RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT MOST RIVER AND
STREAMFLOWS AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CUMBERLAND...
KENTUCKY... AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE
KENTUCKY RIVER AT TALLEGA AND THE ROCKCASTLE RIVER AT BILLOWS
ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
THE LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ARE
AROUND THE NORMAL SUMMER POOL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE OUTLOOK FOR RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS... AS WELL AS
STREAMFLOWS... IS POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... BEFORE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALLOWS THE FLOWS TO MODERATE BACK AROUND NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. IF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK... CONCERN ABOUT LOWER STREAMFLOWS COULD DEVELOP.
NEXT ISSUANCE
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MONDAY JULY 28TH 2008.
RELATED WEB SITES
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
HTTP://WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.KY.GOV/
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS...THE USGS...AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
TONY EDWARDS
BRIAN SCHOETTMER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
606-666-2560
TONY.EDWARDS@NOAA.GOV
BRIAN.SCHOETTMER@NOAA.GOV
SCHOETTMER
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