054  
FXUS64 KLCH 230250  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
950 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WATCHING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE  
ARKLATEX GENERATING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE VORT CENTER MOVING EAST-  
SOUTHEAST. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED NEAR SHV, THEY  
DISSIPATED QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET, WITH THE AREA NOW UNDER WEAK  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED  
LOWERING THE 20% OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO MINIMAL 10%. WITH A  
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE, ONLY EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER  
70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES.  
 
DML  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EARLY, WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS  
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10-14Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 AFTER  
15Z SATURDAY.  
 
DML  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 611 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018/  
 
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING,  
HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP BY MID  
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA  
THIS EVENING. MANY OF THE 12Z CAMS WHICH HAD CONVECTION REACHING  
THE ALEXANDRIA AREA HAVE THUS FAR BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF  
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LA. HOWEVER, A VORTICITY MAXIMUM  
GENERATED FROM PRIOR CONVECTION CAN BE NOTED NE OF THE DALLAS  
METRO AREA AND IS APPROACHING A NARROW AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD OVER  
THE ARKLATEX. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS VORT MAX  
COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CUMULUS  
FIELD INTO MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WHICH COULD PROGRESS  
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
THEREFORE, ELECTED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF  
AROUND ALEXANDRIA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING.  
 
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILD WNW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TODAY RANGING FROM 100-105 WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. WHILE THESE VALUES FALL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA OF 108, THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT  
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS.  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES  
AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN  
WON'T COME UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL  
HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN  
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MARINE...  
 
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES  
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 76 94 75 93 / 10 10 0 20  
LCH 79 90 78 90 / 10 10 10 20  
LFT 77 92 77 91 / 10 10 10 20  
BPT 77 91 78 90 / 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...08  
 
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