447
FXUS64 KLCH 242313
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
BROAD AND SLACK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SETX AND
SWLA THROUGH THE EVENING AS INDICATED BY LOW-MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING ALONG WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. LOW
LEVEL TO SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES
ALLOWING BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THAT SAID, A LACK OF
FORCING ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN
MINIMIZING POPS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT RANGE. AN OVERALL MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE
REGIME WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS TRENDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80’S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN THE SHORT TERM, STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY - SUNDAY WHICH WILL WARRANT
RELEVANT HEADLINES FOR BOTH INLAND AND MARINE ZONES. GIVEN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH AMONG PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE, COASTAL
FLOODING IS A POTENTIAL CONCERN TOO. THESE CONCERNS LATER
ALLEVIATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS/GUSTS TREND DOWN.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW UNDER A STRONG REGION OF DIVERGENCE
CONTINUES TO FURTHER ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM
APPALACHIA BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ABUTS THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN,
CREATING AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WESTERN GULF.
KOWALSKI/30
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND STALLS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, MODEST TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PLAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE
REGIME BUDGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MODERATE
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE MAXIMA
IN GRADIENT OVER SETX AND SWLA OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE THENCEFORTH WILL SLOWLY BROADEN / WEAKEN WHILE
SHIFTING SOUTH OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO SLACK ALONG WITH
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS / STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY TRENDING
INTO UPCOMING EARLY WORK WEEK.
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION, GUIDANCE HONES ON THE IDEA OF THE
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE TX/LA GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BECOMES UNSETTLED AS MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER SETX / SWLA AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACCELERATES OUT OF THE NW,
CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR POPS TO BECOME ENHANCED LATE INTO AND
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE LONG RANGE REMAINS POSSIBLE.
KOWALSKI/30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG LOOKS BEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 HOWEVER, AEX COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AREAWIDE, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN VFR.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY WITH WINDS BUILDING TO 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. DURING THIS TIME WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN
FOUR FEET. STARTING ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE
OUTER WATERS POSSIBLY REACHING 7 FEET OR MORE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LAKES AND BAYS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY STARTING ON THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 84 65 85 / 10 0 0 10
LCH 65 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 65 84 69 85 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 66 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17
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