390  
FXUS64 KLCH 261737  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1237 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
18Z TAFS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO  
DEPART TO THE EAST LEAVING MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE AREA. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM  
ACROSS AEX THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR  
AND MVFR. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR  
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
JONES  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FROM GRIDS SINCE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MS/AL THIS MORNING WITH  
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. SOME WRAP  
AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, BUT  
OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, REST OF THE FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FOR THE 04/26/2018 1200 UTC TAF PACKAGE.  
 
AVIATION...  
STEADY NW WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FROPA OVERNIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL KAEX-KBPT-KLCH, WHILE  
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT THE  
ACADIANA TERMINALS, WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER.  
 
13  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
AT 4 AM, THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS  
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY BATON ROUGE TO PECAN ISLAND. A FEW STRONGER  
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING, PROMPTING THE  
ISSUANCE OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES, MAINLY FOR  
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.  
 
THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST AND SHOULD BE EXITING OUR  
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY AROUND 12Z. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED  
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO  
THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AR  
AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY PER  
THE LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS  
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWESTERN LA AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TX,  
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.  
 
24  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ONGOING ACRS SOUTHERN LA WILL COME TO AN END  
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO  
THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT, LEAVING  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AFTN HIGHS WILL WARM INTO  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE  
NORMAL LATE APRIL MAXIMUMS.  
 
THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE  
IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ONE THIS MORNING. THIS  
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  
FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MINIMAL AS WINDS WILL  
REMAIN NORTHERLY. THUS, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL BE  
LACKING TO PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER CHCS, WITH NO MORE THAN  
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACRS CENTRAL LA WHERE PRECIP WATER  
VALUES WILL BE NEAR AN INCH AND MEAN LAYER RH APPROACHES 80  
PERCENT.  
 
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS  
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. MEANWHILE, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL WITH  
HIGHS AROUND 80 EACH AFTN.  
 
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING  
TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A  
TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN STATES, AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF  
SLT CHC POPS BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND  
DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING FROM  
AROUND AN INCH ON MONDAY TO NEARLY 1.7 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN  
CHCS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST  
SLOWLY MOVES EAST, BUT THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED  
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  
 
24  
 
MARINE...  
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD  
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO  
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE  
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES  
EAST OF THE AREA. A MOSTLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY  
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.  
 
24  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 54 77 53 81 / 0 10 0 0  
LCH 56 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0  
LFT 55 76 55 80 / 0 10 0 0  
BPT 56 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
GMZ455-470-472-475.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...66  
 
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