361
FXUS64 KLCH 081823
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
DISCUSSION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MEANWHILE SKIES ARE OVERCAST BUT WITH
A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD SO NO PROBLEMS THERE FOR AVIATION. REGIONAL
88DS SHOW A LARGE MASS OF PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY JUST MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH ONLY THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ACTUALLY BEING
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRIER LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER
DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE CEILINGS LOWER SOMEWHAT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
PREVAILING RAIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST THEN SOUTH
TO NORTH IN REACTION TO CROSSING SHORTWAVE AND WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING IN OFF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA.
25
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HURRICANE IDA AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. NHC HAS ALREADY ISSUED HURRICANE WATCHES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE LA COAST WITH IDA CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ACRS THE GULF MONDAY...APPROACHING SERN LA BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE GULF COAST STATES FM THE WEST.
STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NORTH. IN
ADDITION...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. SPEEDS OF NEARLY 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
AT MARSH ISLAND AND BUOY 42035...WITH THE BUOY ALSO REPORTING SEAS
OF 5 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FETCH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS UP
ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES NORTH.
OVERALL...CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET AND SEE NO
NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES NORTHWARD. RADAR IS INDICATING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE
AND THIS IS BLOCKING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS. BUT
THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD AND THE SHOWERS IN THE
GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS TODAY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK AS SHOWERS
IN THE GULF MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PILE UP THE WATER ALONG THE COAST AND WITH HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME MINOR FLOODING.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLVING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...THE TROF MOVES OFF
THE COAST AND IDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE
SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY.
BY TUESDAY IDA LOOKS TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL END THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KLCH 75 62 71 61 73 / 40 80 80 40 10
KBPT 76 64 73 61 75 / 40 70 50 20 10
KAEX 76 59 71 58 73 / 20 60 50 60 10
KLFT 75 62 70 59 72 / 40 80 80 60 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
VERMILION BAY.
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