064
FXUS64 KLCH 240255
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
855 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
UPDATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. SFC WX
MAP SHOWS LIGHT SE FLOW OVER SE TX/SW LA...ONLY EXPECTING THE MID
50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH WINDS NOW DECOUPLED OVER C AND SC
LA...WHERE WE EXPECT THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ONGOING FORECAST SHOWS PATCHY BR AFTER 06Z...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS SEEN
LAST NIGHT. THUS...ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 540 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG THRU THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THRU TMRW AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. SHOWS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. MEANWHILE...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF HEADING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...WITH MOST LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS SCATTERING OUT.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER LAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEW POINT. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO BE TOO LOW OR TOO WIDESPREAD.
ON TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THEN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. ALSO...AT THIS POINT
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALSO TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND OFFSHORE...SO WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS IN THE
WEATHER GRID.
DRIER AIR SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
ALONG WITH A REINFORCING "DRY" SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WILL MAKE FOR VERY NICE...YET
COOL...WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
COOLEST NIGHT DURING THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO BE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-10.
IN THE FAR EXTENDED...RETURN FLOW AND A WARM-UP CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOTED WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MIXING OVER THE STILL
RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS...AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
BE REACHED IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING THAT TIME.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY KEEPING MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KLCH 53 73 48 66 43 / 10 40 10 0 0
KBPT 56 73 46 65 43 / 10 40 10 0 0
KAEX 49 72 45 64 40 / 10 30 10 0 0
KLFT 52 74 49 65 42 / 10 30 20 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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