696  
FXUS64 KLCH 242344  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
544 PM CST FRI NOV 24 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FOR THE 11/25/17 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS UNDERNEATH SOME PASSING  
HIGH CIRRUS WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI NOV 24 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST RESULTING IN  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT  
IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL  
SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS  
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW  
AND SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS SW LOUISIANA  
AND NEAR 80 ACROSS SE TEXAS.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS  
ALREADY OVER THE AREA (AS INDICATED BY PWATS LESS THAN 0.5"  
SAMPLED BY REGIONAL UPPER AIR FLIGHTS THIS MORNING) AND THE VERY  
SHORT PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION  
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE  
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING  
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND  
PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS IS THE MOST  
AMPLIFIED AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WITH IT EXITING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE,  
THE GFS ENSEMBLE, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE  
THE TROUGH EXITING THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHT 500 HPA RISES  
OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BEING AN  
APPARENT OUTLIER, NO NEED WAS SEEN AT THIS TIME TO STRAY TOO FAR  
FROM THE REGIONAL SUPERBLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
HEIGHT RISES IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL RESULT  
IN TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE  
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO  
REDEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE  
RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE  
REGION RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
MARINE...  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE  
COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH  
WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH AN  
ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 39 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0  
LCH 47 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 0  
LFT 45 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 0  
BPT 50 77 51 72 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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