502  
FXUS64 KLIX 270427  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MARINE LAYER CONSIDERATIONS FOR MVFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH ABOUT 15Z  
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. SOME SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE MAINLY NEAR  
KMCB AND PERHAPS KBTR AND KHDC MAY WARRANT PROB30 FOR A FEW HOURS  
IN THE AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER RETURNS A MVFR CLOUD DECK TOWARDS  
THE END OF VALID TAF PERIOD. 24/RR  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...MUCH QUIETER DAY TODAY. A LITTLE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS  
EARLY THIS MORNING QUICKLY GAVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOWER 80S BY 18Z AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ANOTHER 1-3  
DEGREES OF WARMING BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FIRST ISSUE IN THE NEXT 60 HOURS WILL BE TOMORROW BUT OVERALL  
THINGS JUST DON'T LOOK TO PROMISING FOR RAIN. TONIGHT WILL BE  
QUIET WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS PRODUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING EAST INTO THE OZARKS. PROBLEM FOR RAIN  
TOMORROW IS THE BEST SUPPORT COMES IN EARLY MONDAY. BEST UPPER LVL  
DIVERGENCE, MID LVL SPEED MAX, AND TORUGH AXIS ALL COME THROUGH  
B/T 12 AND 18Z. AFTER ALL OF THIS PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST MID LVL  
HGHTS RISE AND THEN THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES ALONG WITH  
SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. MAYBE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND  
DAYTIME HEATING CAN SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR  
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE  
OPTIMISTIC.  
 
AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL  
WITH FOG AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM  
MONDAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AS THIS HAPPENS  
MID LVL RIDGING WILL BE LEFT IN ITS PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY. THIS ALONG DOESN'T BODE TO WELL FOR RAIN BUT FOR SOME  
REASON THE MDLS ARE TRYING TO PRINT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT APF B/T 12  
AND 18Z TUESDAY. THE THINKING IS THAT THIS COULD JUST BE FOG AND  
LOW CLOUDS SO WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
TOKEN 20% NEAR SOUTHWEST MS. AS FOR THE FOG TUESDAY MORNING IT  
COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
AS WE REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS IN THE LOW LVLS WILL BE  
WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IF THERE IS ANY RAIN FROM MONDAY  
THE RISK FOR FOG WILL INCREASE. /CAB/  
 
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE AND VERY WARM AS DEEP  
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES ROOT AHEAD OF A POTENT 500 MB TROUGH. STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS, WILL WILL TRACK INTO LA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DO NOT BEGIN TO GO UP ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTH MS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AT  
THAT TIME. RESTRENGTHENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SHOULD TAKE  
PLACE THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH ARRIVES. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDER WESTERLY  
WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE  
SEVERE.  
 
FOR FRIDAY INTO MOST OF SATURDAY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM  
RIDGING ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ANOTHER  
EVEN DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO  
ANCHOR TO THE WEST. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINITY WITH BEING TOWARDS THE  
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE WESTERN TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO PLACE  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
MORE STORMS AND MAYBE EVEN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEGINNING SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAY SET UP AS AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMS IN.  
 
KRAUTMANN  
 
AVIATION...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 06Z. AFTER 06Z, A LOW  
LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW  
CEILINGS AND FOG TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT  
AT AROUND 300 FEET AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO  
3 MILES. HOWEVER, KMCB COULD FALL TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE FOR A FEW  
HOURS. AS A RESULT, LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT  
ALL OF THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. AFTER 14Z,  
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MVFR RANGE OF AROUND 2000 FEET.  
 

 
 
MARINE...  
 
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS  
OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD ALSO  
BE MUCH CALMER AT 2 TO 4 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY, AN  
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW  
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE  
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE BY THURSDAY. SEAS  
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS DURING  
THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA,  
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL RELAX. A LIGHTER WEST  
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD, AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO  
DROP OFF. 32  
 
DECISION SUPPORT...  
DSS CODE...GREEN.  
DEPLOYED...NONE.  
ACTIVATION...NONE.  
ACTIVITIES...NONE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICE (DSS) CODE LEGEND:  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION  
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER;  
NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS, HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER; DIRECT  
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 64 84 64 84 / 10 30 10 20  
BTR 66 84 66 86 / 10 30 10 10  
ASD 66 82 65 83 / 10 20 10 10  
MSY 68 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 10  
GPT 67 79 66 80 / 10 30 10 10  
PQL 65 79 65 81 / 10 30 10 10  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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