232  
FXUS64 KLIX 120941  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
341 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY  
THIS FEATURE. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA AND COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK.  
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR  
SO FOR A COUPLE DAYS. GENERALLY SPEAKING, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S  
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. ONE NIGHT OF NEAR FREEZING MINS IS EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A  
PASCAGOULA TO SLIDELL TO BATON ROUGE LINE. THERE WON'T BE ANY RAIN  
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THERE WILL NOT BE ANY CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TO  
RETURN BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURS NIGHT/FRI MORNING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER  
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AS THE SUB-TROPICAL  
JET CARRIES PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUCH  
THAT SHOWERS DON'T DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT REACHES THE  
COAST. SO, HAVE KEPT POPS TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A HOUMA TO LAFITTE  
LINE. THIS IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF RAIN CHANCES, WHICH IS WHAT  
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS.  
 
THIS LAST TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE THE ONE THAT SHIFTS EAST TO THE  
ATLANTIC, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES  
WILL RESPOND OVER THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BY RISING INTO THE  
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE NEXT  
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A TROUGH  
MOVES INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN.  
 
MEFFER  

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
 
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NW AT  
10KT WHILE THOSE SITES ON THE LEE SIDE OF LAKES WILL BE CLOSER TO  
20KT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF CYCLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL RISE TO 20 TO 25KT TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL AGAIN LOWER BEFORE RESPONDING ONCE AGAIN TO  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AFTER THE  
FRIDAY FRONT CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EACH  
OF THESE FRONTS WILL BRING WITH THEM AT LEAST SHORT DURATIONS OF  
FLAG CONDITIONS WHETHER THAT BE CAUTION OR SCA CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 55 31 58 38 / 0 0 0 0  
BTR 59 32 60 39 / 0 0 0 0  
ASD 60 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0  
MSY 59 38 61 45 / 0 0 0 0  
GPT 58 34 58 42 / 0 0 0 0  
PQL 59 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-  
555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-  
557-570-572-575-577.  
 

 
 

 
 
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