070  
FXUS64 KLIX 290900  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND WEAK OMEGA ALOFT WILL LINGER  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BEGINNING LATE THIS  
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY  
INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING WANES  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD  
QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
BEHIND. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT  
OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE  
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
90S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
 
IT LOOKS LIKE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND DROP IN  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO LOWER OVERALL CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE  
EXPECTED CONDITIONS, POP HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR  
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER AND EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS  
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED  
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY, AND VERY  
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST  
OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PLACING  
THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO  
SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BOTH TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT IN PLACE BY  
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE  
WEAKEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS  
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY.  
 
THE RIDGING IS FORECAST REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND  
SOUTH- CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT AN  
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ALONG THE  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
WITH AN INCREASE IN VORTICITY AND FORCING ALOFT, CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT AROUND 40 PERCENT OR  
HIGHER BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH  
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY. OVERALL, A  
VERY TYPICAL SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUMMER  
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER  
AREAS OF INLAND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI INTO ADJACENT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA  
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z TODAY, MAINLY IMPACTING KMCB. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND HAVE PLACED  
A PROB30 FOR TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TAF AIRPORTS. 22/TD  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS, PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY  
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS DUE TO A PERSISTENT  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. LATE NEXT WEEK, A  
TROPICAL WAVE COULD APPROACH THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION, AND  
THAT WOULD LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER. 22/TD  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: GREEN.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: JEFFERSON PARISH PUBLIC SAFETY SUPPORT FOR GRAND ISLE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING  
OR ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY  
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 94 73 95 74 / 40 30 50 30  
BTR 95 75 94 74 / 40 30 50 30  
ASD 94 78 92 78 / 40 30 50 30  
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 40 20 50 30  
GPT 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 40 20  
PQL 92 78 91 78 / 40 30 30 20  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
32  
 
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