553  
FXUS64 KLIX 280902  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
402 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS  
SHARPENED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE  
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CAUSE  
CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO FALL FROM 88F TO AROUND 80F WHILE THE DEEP  
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRECIP WATER VALUES TO RISE INTO THE 2+"  
LEVELS. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY EASY TO PRODUCE SH/TS ACROSS THE  
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES  
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL RISE. BUT AS  
THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN  
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO HELP IN THE PRODUCTION OF SH/TS ONCE AGAIN  
FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, PRECIP WATER LEVELS SHOULD FALL BACK TO  
MORE NORMAL LEVELS ONLY ALLOWING FOR HIT AND MISS COVERAGE GOING  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE MAINLY  
AFTER 17Z AT NEARLY ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED OUTSIDE CONVECTION WHERE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.  
DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL AROUND 35 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ONSHORE FLOW HAS GENERALLY RETURNED AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR MOST OF  
THE FORECAST WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS BEING THE  
MAX. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS WELL EXCEPT NEAR AND ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: MONITORING HYDRO  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 86 70 83 72 / 50 30 70 30  
BTR 86 71 85 74 / 50 40 70 40  
ASD 85 73 82 75 / 60 50 70 40  
MSY 83 74 84 76 / 70 60 70 40  
GPT 84 74 82 76 / 50 50 70 40  
PQL 84 73 82 75 / 50 50 70 40  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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