795  
FXUS64 KLIX 242027  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA  
BORDER. SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY ISOLATED. WHERE  
CONVECTION HAS NOT OCCURRED, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE  
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON RAIN  
CHANCES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE, AT BEST, THROUGH TUESDAY.  
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH  
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY  
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT WITH NO DEEP INFLOW OF  
MOISTURE, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW  
MORE CLOUDS MONDAY MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. IT WILL  
TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY FOR THE DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA. 35  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY OVER LAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CHANGE  
IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH  
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF THE AREA. THE  
DRIER AIR, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WILL  
HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. IT'S BEEN OVER  
4 MONTHS SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE THAT COOL. USED THE REGIONAL  
BLEND ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 35  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MAY  
SEE SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT FOG FORMATION IN AREAS PRONE TO DRAINAGE  
ASPECTS NEAR DAYBREAK, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN EXTENT AND DURATION.  
24/RR  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS IN A FLAT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED INTO THE GULF WATERS  
MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING A MODERATE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW AS COOLER  
AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE NORTH GULF. THE CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL  
THEN SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK WHILE WINDS VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW BY MID-WEEK. 24/RR  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: GREEN.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: NONE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING  
OR ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY  
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 70 93 70 90 / 10 20 10 30  
BTR 72 92 72 90 / 10 20 10 30  
ASD 73 92 72 90 / 10 20 10 30  
MSY 75 91 74 89 / 10 20 10 30  
GPT 74 91 74 89 / 10 20 10 30  
PQL 73 91 72 89 / 10 20 10 30  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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