411  
FXUS64 KLIX 170058  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
758 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017  
   
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION
 
 
THE AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THIS EVENING WITH PW DOWN TO 0.38  
INCHES, WHICH IS THE MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE SPC  
CLIMATOLOGY. THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS AT 850 MB AND A RADIATION  
INVERSION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP AT THE SFC. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS ARE STILL NORTHEAST TO 600 MB  
THEN WESTERLY ABOVE.  
 
KRAUTMANN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! TEMPERATURES BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S  
COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE SAME  
TIME YESTERDAY. MOST PLACES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 70S AND LIKELY  
WILL ONLY SEE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING.  
 
THE SUN HAS COME OUT IN MOST PLACES AS WELL WITH THE BULK OF THE  
CLOUDS NOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUR COOLEST NIGHT SINCE EARLY MAY IS ON TAP TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES  
AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING.  
FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR  
NORTHERN AREAS AND THROUGH THE RIVER PARISHES. LOWS WILL BE A FEW  
DEGREES HIGHER - IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S - FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH  
SHORE. ONCE THE SUN COMES UP, A REAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY IS  
IN STORE FOR TOMORROW. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S.  
 
WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL  
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY WEEK'S  
END, THE RIDGE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,  
WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHERE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EURO AND GFS HANDLE THE  
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW WILL  
BECOME CLOSED OFF IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DIGS  
INTO TEXAS, BUT THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW VARIES  
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. BY LATE SUNDAY THE EURO HAS  
A 567 DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS, WHILE THE GFS HAS  
A 582 DM LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THESE DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE  
SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE CURRENT  
FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND  
GENERALLY REPRESENTS A COLD FRONT TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.  
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS AS  
THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS HAS SETTLED INTO EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK  
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 23Z FOR MOST SITES.  
ELEVATED WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY FOR KNEW AND KMSY.  
WINDS WILL FINALLY ABATE AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.  
 
MARINE...  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS  
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER WARM COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL  
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 20-25KT. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO NE AND EASE A BIT TUESDAY TO AROUND 15KT. THESE  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DIURNAL  
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED. EASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND  
GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND TO SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND SPEEDS  
GRADUALLY RISING TO POSSIBLY 20KT.  
 
SURFACE PATTERN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO LOUISIANA  
AND LOWERED PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL  
MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF  
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE COAST TO  
WELL OFFSHORE, KEEPING INLAND WATERWAYS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. A  
GRADUAL NORTHWARD TRANSITION OF SH/TS SHOULD BEGIN BY THURSDAY INTO  
THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND WATERS AS EARLY AS  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT...  
DSS CODE: GREEN.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: NONE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 47 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 0  
BTR 48 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0  
ASD 49 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0  
MSY 57 75 62 79 / 0 0 0 0  
GPT 52 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0  
PQL 48 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-  
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-  
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page