207  
FXUS64 KLIX 280954  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
454 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH  
SOME TWEAKING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE TEMPERATURES  
WERE MADE. OUR SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE GULF OF  
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA  
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL ROUNDS  
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND  
TOMORROW KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.  
OVERALL, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD FALL OVER THE GULF  
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES  
(WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS) OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD COULD SPREAD  
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
WELCOME TO ANOTHER EDITION OF AS 99L TURNS.  
 
ONCE AGAIN, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT REMAINS AS IT  
WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY FOR OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
IN ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF  
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT  
OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IN TURN CAUSE  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S IN MOST PLACES. WITH THE  
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA,  
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. I DID OPT TO  
BACK OFF A TOUCH ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND UP A TOUCH WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE UNCERTAINLY ABOUT 99L BUT  
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S.  
 
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE CHANCES OF  
DEVELOPMENT ON 99L TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 60  
PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING  
RAGGED (AND THAT IS BEING KIND) AND SUFFERING THE EFFECTS OF  
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL AS INTERACTION WITH CUBA.  
THAT SAID, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENTERING A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE  
AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS  
TODAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BIGGEST DEVELOPMENT  
TONIGHT IS PROBABLY IN THAT THERE IS ONCE AGAIN MODEL SUPPORT FOR  
99L TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME  
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST. THE GFS, ECMWF, NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS  
ALL DEVELOP 99L AT THIS POINT BUT SEND IT EAST OF THE AREA AS A  
TROUGH DIVES DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ALLOWS FOR A WEAKNESS  
IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT, THERE WOULD  
BE SOME UNEASY MOMENTS WAITING FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST AS IT COULD GET RATHER CLOSE FOR COMFORT. AT THIS TIME  
THOUGH, THAT IS SIMPLY ONE OF MANY POSSIBILITIES.  
 
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS, IT IS LATE AUGUST  
AND THE TROPICS SHOULD BE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY  
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY; EVERYONE SHOULD BE  
WORKING ON THEIR NORMAL YEARLY PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN THE EVENT  
THAT SOMETHING WARRANTS ACTION...WHETHER THAT BE SOONER OR LATER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AREAS. THE  
CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MORE COASTAL TAF  
SITES. THEREFORE, KHUM, KMSY AND KNEW ARE THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY  
TO BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE CONVECTION  
WILL BEGIN TO WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE  
INLAND AREAS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE  
COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET  
RANGE. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING  
.5 TO 1 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, OR PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE  
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT  
SHOULD ENTER THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY MONDAY. IF  
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL  
GULF, THEN CONDITIONS COULD BE FAR DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS IN THE  
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: FLOOD RECOVERY SUPPORT  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING  
OR ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY  
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 89 74 91 74 / 40 30 40 20  
BTR 89 73 90 73 / 60 30 40 20  
ASD 89 76 89 77 / 60 40 40 20  
MSY 88 78 88 79 / 60 40 40 20  
GPT 88 77 89 78 / 60 40 40 20  
PQL 88 76 90 77 / 60 40 30 20  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT/LONG...98/SO  
REST OF DISCUSSION...11  
 
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