330  
FXUS64 KLIX 150922  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
422 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS GETS A BETTER KICK OVERNIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NUMBERS OF SH/TS AROUND THE AREA  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE AREA BACK TO A  
MORE NORMAL SH/TS COUNT. THE HEAT WILL STILL BE THERE OUTSIDE  
COOLING RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND  
MORE SHADE FROM CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN  
THE WAY OF MOTION TODAY OR THURSDAY. AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES  
WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS AND OVER COASTAL  
MISSISSIPPI. THESE SH/TS COULD SPEND THEIR LIFECYCLE OVER THE AREA  
THEY DEVELOP WHILE PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD  
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS  
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE ROADWAYS. STRONG WINDS OF 30+MPH WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MAINLY NEAR NEW ORLEANS. DOWNBURST NUMBERS  
ARE NOW COMING IN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THURSDAY SO THERE WILL BE  
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TODAY BUT  
MORESO THURSDAY.  
 
THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT MAY VISIT  
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. BUT DISCUSSING ANY INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES  
ASSOCIATED WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD IMPACT KBTR AND KHUM THROUGH 13Z  
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 5 MILES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM  
AROUND 17Z THROUGH 00Z AT KHUM, KMSY, KNEW, KASD, AND KGPT, AND HAVE  
INCLUDED PROB30 WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK. 32  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS  
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF THE  
MISSISSIPI COAST WHERE A SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.  
THIS COULD INDUCE SOME STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR  
A FEW HOURS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND CHANDELEUR  
SOUNDS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD  
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. 32  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: GREEN.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: NONE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT; MARGINAL RISK SEVERE OR  
EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE  
OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; ENHANCED RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE  
AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAIN; DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS  
OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 95 74 93 73 / 20 10 50 10  
BTR 95 75 93 75 / 20 10 50 10  
ASD 94 76 92 76 / 30 20 50 10  
MSY 93 78 92 78 / 30 20 50 10  
GPT 93 78 90 78 / 30 20 50 20  
PQL 93 76 91 76 / 30 20 50 20  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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