953
FXUS64 KLIX 052002
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
302 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008
SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THUSFAR HAS BEEN LESS THAN PAST DAYS BUT
EARLIER CLOUD COVER DID HAMPER THINGS A BIT. COVERAGE IS SLOWLY
INCREASING AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH 7 PM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN DISSIPATING BY 9 PM. MORE
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY IN THE MOBILE RIVER BASIN OF WESTERN ALABAMA.
THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD PROPAGATION COMPONENT TO THOSE STORMS
AND SOME MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI. THE GULF
BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE WAS ABOUT TWO HOURS DELAYED IN FORMING AND
ADVANCING...HAVING JUST REACHED THE I-10 CORRIDOR ALONG
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND NOT QUITE TO I-12 CORRIDOR FOR THE LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER NORTHERN
PLAQUEMINES PARISH IS MOVING INTO THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND
WILL LIKELY REACT TO LAKE BREEZE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HOLD ON TO 20 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING. ALSO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER SUNDAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND LACK OF FOCUS OUTSIDE OF
GULF/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WILL SHOW 20 PERCENT FOR
SUNDAY BUT DROP BACK TO 10 PERCENT OVER LAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STATUS QUO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VARIABILITY FROM DAY TO DAY...MAINLY BY
OPENING THE FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE FROM A CARIBBEAN FETCH.
THE NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE GFS ARE SHOWING SOME OPEN
WAVE FEATURE TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE
NORTH GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BRING
AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE BY MID-WEEK. WILL HOLD
AROUND 40-50 PERCENT FROM MONDAY ONWARD EACH AFTERNOON BUT MAY
NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD ON ONE OR MORE DAYS IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE LITTLE...PARTICULARLY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS...BUT MINS MAY BUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINT ADVECTION IN TIME FROM THE CARIBBEAN FETCH.
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO PERSIST OUTSIDE LAND BREEZE CONVECTION
IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SHORE EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS MID-WEEK AS DEEPER
FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVANCES NORTHWARD AROUND BERMUDA RIDGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 90 70 91 / 20 20 10 40
BTR 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 40
MSY 75 90 75 90 / 20 20 10 40
GPT 74 89 73 89 / 20 20 10 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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