005  
FXUS64 KLIX 191342  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
742 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION
 
 
THE PROFILE IS DRIER THIS MORNING WITH PW AT 0.6 INCHES. RADIATION  
FOG THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THERE IS  
A STRONG INVERSION THROUGH 925 MB AND ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION  
NEAR 700 MB. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AT LOW LEVELS AND BECOME MORE  
NORTHWEST BY 800 MB THROUGH THE REST OF THE SOUNDING.  
 
KRAUTMANN  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 410 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST. A DENSE  
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME PLACES  
HAVE LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE. WE EXPECT THE FOG  
TO MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY UP INTO THE LOWER 80S  
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN LOOKS TO  
COME IN ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW  
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  
BOTH THE GFS AND EMCWF TAKE THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT  
WOULD SUGGEST MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF ANY SEVERE STORMS. THEY ALSO  
HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE BIT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN TO  
THE WEST ON MONDAY. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE  
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATER CHANCES OF  
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE  
MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE  
TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER  
LOW. TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP MUCH WITH THAT FRONT AND TEMPS WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT BIG RAIN  
CHANCE LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA NEXT EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY  
OR TUESDAY.  
 
AVIATION...  
VIS WILL BE THE ISSUE THIS MORNING FOR ALL SITES. ALL TERMINALS WILL  
OBSERVE REDUCTION IN VIS TO SOME DEGREE WITH MOST ACTUALLY FALLING  
TO IFR THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY. FG COULD BE AN ISSUE AROUND MIDNIGHT  
TONIGHT BUT A LOW LEVEL CEILING AT AROUND OVC015 SHOULD MOVE IN  
AFTER MIDNIGHT CAUSING SFC VIS TO IMPROVE IF DEGRADED. CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AT OVC015 AFTER 12Z MONDAY.  
 
MARINE...  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS  
MORNING. DEW PT TEMPS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF  
THE AREA WHILE THE SOUTH SHORE DOES HAVE DEW PT TEMPS AROUND 60.  
VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE THESE  
NUMBERS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING 63 TO 66  
DEGREES WHICH IS PROVIDING A SMALL AMOUNT OF HEAT TO THE ADJACENT  
AIR WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM GETTING 1SM OR LESS. ALTHOUGH THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER IS STILL AT A CHILLY 50 DEGREES SO FOG IS  
EXPECTED WITHIN THE LEVEE SYSTEMS.  
 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND  
LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS  
TO 10-15KT TODAY AND 15-20KT OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS  
TONIGHT.  
 
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GET A  
PUSH FROM TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT SEE  
MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE OVER AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND. A BROAD,  
SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH, WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW,  
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN WIND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION  
IN WESTERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE EASTERLY WIND ELSEWHERE.  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF  
COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST WINDS  
IN 10-15KT RANGE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT...  
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 82 56 80 60 / 0 0 10 70  
BTR 80 61 79 63 / 0 10 20 70  
ASD 79 58 78 61 / 0 0 10 70  
MSY 79 61 78 62 / 0 0 10 70  
GPT 76 59 74 62 / 0 0 0 20  
PQL 77 54 76 59 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-  
039-040-046>050-056>072.  
 
GM...NONE.  
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-  
077-080>082.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page