765  
FXUS64 KLIX 282031 AAA  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN DEEP LAYER  
TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND A DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND TROUGHING IN  
THE UPPER LEVELS. HAVE KEPT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND ALSO HAVE  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR  
TOMORROW. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED, SO THE PRIMARY CONCERN  
FROM ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO STREET FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
STRIKES.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONGEST OMEGA VALUES BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.  
HOWEVER, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE IN  
PLACE TO KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED AND MOISTURE IS  
DEEPEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED  
OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. WITH  
INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING  
OVER THE REGION, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THE  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO DRY OUT AND WARM THE MID TO UPPER  
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN INCREASED CAPPING ALOFT AND  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS, BY FRIDAY POP VALUES FALL TO 20 TO  
30 PERCENT WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE SEASONAL NORMS CLOSER TO 40 TO  
50 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM DUE TO THE  
COMBINATION OF SINKING AIR AND LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD  
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD PUSH  
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. WITH STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ALOFT, A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP IS EXPECTED  
ALOFT. THIS CAP WILL LIMIT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP DURING  
PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON  
SATURDAY WHEN THE REGION IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD BE FIRMLY  
ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF SOUTH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK  
WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE RAIN CHANCES REACH 20 PERCENT DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LACK OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS  
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 60S, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 105  
RANGE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HOT, BUT HEAT ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
USING TEMPO GROUPS FOR BEST TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY SEE A BIT OF  
PATCHY FOG TRY TO FORM AROUND KMCB TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE  
SHORT- LIVED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL  
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER  
LEVELS ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND  
WATERSPOUTS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, NO SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS FROM 2 FEET OR LESS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: YELLOW.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: NONE.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH  
VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR DIRECT  
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE..  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 72 91 70 93 / 50 30 30 10  
BTR 73 90 72 93 / 50 50 40 20  
ASD 73 90 72 92 / 60 50 50 30  
MSY 77 88 75 91 / 60 60 50 40  
GPT 73 88 73 90 / 50 60 50 40  
PQL 72 88 71 92 / 60 60 60 40  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
32  
 
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