435  
FXUS64 KLIX 222130  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
330 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH  
WIND FIELD WAS OCCLUDING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR MEMPHIS THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SOME COLD POOL INSTABILITY PRODUCING PATCHES OF  
HIGH BASED LIGHT RAIN. THIS PROCESS USUALLY ENDS SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNSET AND WILL CARRY 20 PERCENT TO HANDLE WHAT SHOULD REMAIN JUST  
LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD  
BEGIN THE EASING OF HIGH WINDS AS ADVECTION NEUTRALIZES AND BASE  
OF SHARP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO  
BE FAIR WEATHER DAYS WITH NO RAIN AND SEASONABLY MILD  
TEMPERATURES. 24/RR  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE  
FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. THIS  
MAY BRING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE THE FRONT  
FOR 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
THEN BUILDS AND MAINTAINS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN ON A SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE DROPPING INTO  
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY, AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF BUT NOT  
BY THE GFS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF THERMAL COOLING ALOFT, WOULD SEEM  
THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT. INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW END POPS FOR  
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST TRANSIENT SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED HIGH  
PRESSURE AIR MASS MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY WHILE MOVING EAST NEXT  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED VIRGA LADENED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
EVENING. CLOUD DECK SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR BKN030 FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS  
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR CAVOK BY 14Z. STRONG NW WINDS AND HIGHER  
GUSTS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING LESS  
GUSTY OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND NEAR STORM GUSTS ARE OCCURRING THIS  
AFTERNOON AND HAVE RESPONDED BETTER ON THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS.  
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS AT THIS  
TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE FROM GALE STRENGTH ONCE COLD POOL  
ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS  
CLOSE TO 20 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS  
ABATE. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING  
BEFORE LEVELING OFF. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WHILE  
LESSENING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE VEERING TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME  
BAROCLINIC RETURN RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE NORTH GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE  
OF COLD AIR PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR  
THURSDAY. AIR MASS MODERATES FRIDAY FOR MODERATE NE WINDS.  
 

 
   
DECISION SUPPORT
 
 
DSS CODE: BLUE  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE  
ACTIVITIES: GALE WARNING. WIND ADVISORY  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 48 61 42 70 / 20 0 0 0  
BTR 48 63 44 71 / 20 0 0 0  
ASD 51 66 45 70 / 20 0 0 0  
MSY 52 64 48 71 / 10 0 0 0  
GPT 53 64 45 65 / 20 0 0 0  
PQL 52 67 43 68 / 20 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-  
046>050-056>072.  
 
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-552-555-  
557-570-572-575-577.  
 
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-  
538.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534.  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
080>082.  
 
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-555-557-  
570-572-575-577.  
 
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534.  
 

 
 

 
 
24/RR  
 
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