629  
FGUS71 KALY 162220  
ESFALY  
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-  
111-113-115-VTC003-025-182230-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
520 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017  
 
...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 4 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK  
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...  
 
THIS IS THE FOURTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN  
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY  
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE  
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 16TH TO  
MARCH 2ND.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
 
RECENT INCREASES IN THE SNOWPACK HAVE MOVED THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SNOWMELT FLOODING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON  
TRIBUTARIES WHERE THE THREAT IS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE HOUSATONIC  
BASIN AND SOUTHERNMOST HUDSON RIVER ESTUARY TRIBUTARIES...WHERE  
THE THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAM  
FLOODING REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE  
OUTLOOK AREA.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
BACK TO BACK WINTER STORMS WITHIN THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE  
INCREASED SNOWPACK THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH MOST AREAS  
NOW SNOW COVERED.  
 
SACANDAGA AND INDIAN LAKE WATERSHEDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE  
MEASURED BETWEEN 6 AND 20 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH CONTAINING 1 TO  
NEARLY 4.5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT. THIS IS JUST OVER 130  
PERCENT OF NORMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT.  
 
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH AND EAST IN NEW YORK STATE...SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED  
AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILL  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...20 TO 30 INCHES OF  
SNOW WERE MEASURED...CONTAINING 4 TO NEARLY 7 INCHES OF LIQUID  
EQUIVALENT. THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
FROM THE BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH THROUGH THE LITCHFIELD  
HILL OF CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 9 TO 13  
INCHES...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
28 DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW  
YORK ARE NEAR NORMAL ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/  
STREAMGAGES.  
 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS THAT WERE VERY LOW DUE TO THE RECEDING DROUGHT  
ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. ABOUT HALF OF U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY  
/USGS/ WELLS IN EASTERN NEW YORK ARE STILL REPORTING BELOW NORMAL  
LEVELS...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELLS HAVE  
RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL.  
 
EASTERN NEW YORK SOIL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED  
SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN  
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF LONG TERM DRY CONDITIONS.  
   
..WATER SUPPLY
 
 
 
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOWMELT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS  
GENERALLY RAISED RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
 
NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/  
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 79 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS  
NINE PERCENT BELOW NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY. THIS IS TWO PERCENT  
HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE LAST OUTLOOK...TWO WEEKS AGO.  
 
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE  
BLACK RIVER WATERSHED...AS WELL AS INDIAN LAKE IN THE UPPER HUDSON  
WATERSHED...ARE ALL WITHIN ABOUT A FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE IS ABOUT TWO AND A HALF  
FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE SOME SNOW  
MELT DURING THE DAY...IT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY RAINFALL  
OR STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL  
FALL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTROLLED AND GRADUAL  
DIURNAL MELT OF THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. ONLY SMALL AND MINOR RISES  
CAN BE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE  
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 22ND THROUGH THE 26TH OF  
FEBRUARY... AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 24TH  
THROUGH MARCH 2ND...BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
RECENT INCREASES IN THE SNOWPACK HAVE MOVED THE THREAT FOR  
SNOWMELT FLOODING INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON  
TRIBUTARIES WHERE THE THREAT IS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE HOUSATONIC  
BASIN...WHERE THE THREAT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE THREAT FOR  
RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE FIFTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR  
THURSDAY...MARCH 2ND. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE  
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE  
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL  
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.  
 
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB  
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN  
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.  
 

 
 
BEW/TAW/BJF/RH  
 
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