725  
FGUS71 KALY 271523  
ESFALY  
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-  
111-113-115-VTC003-025-102000-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1123 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2018  
 
...ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ADIRONDACKS; ELSEWHERE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL...  
 
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL  
CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, CAUSING RISES ON RIVERS.  
FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SOME RIVERS WILL  
APPROACH ACTION STAGE BUT ONLY A FEW POINTS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING.  
 
THIS IS THE NINTH IN A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE, SOUTHERN  
VERMONT, BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY  
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE HUDSON,  
MOHAWK AND HOUSATONIC.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FROM APRIL 27TH TO MAY  
10TH.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE  
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK.  
 
SNOW DEPTHS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 6  
INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS  
ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM UP TO AN INCH IN  
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGH PEAKS.  
 
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE CARRYING FROM NIL TO 3 INCHES OF  
SNOW DEPTH, WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW WATER  
EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM NIL TO HALF AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND  
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, ANY SNOW THAT REMAINS AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS IS HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT. THE GROUND IS BARE  
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
   
...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
FLOODING DUE TO RIVER ICE IS NO LONGER A CONCERN FOR THE SEASON.  
   
..STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMGAGES, 28 DAY  
STREAMFLOW AVERAGES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK  
ARE NEAR NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX IS CURRENTLY  
DESIGNATED NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF AN "UNUSUAL MOIST SPELL" DESIGNATION FOR THE WESTERN CLIMATE  
DIVISION IN VERMONT.  
   
..WATER SUPPLY
 
 
NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (NYCDEP) WATER  
SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR; THE SYSTEM  
AS A WHOLE IS AT 99.3 PERCENT OF CAPACITY, WHICH IS 1.1 PERCENT  
ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY.  
 
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO  
FILL WITH SNOWMELT, HOWEVER DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SPRING TEMPERATURES,  
THESE RISES ARE SOMEWHAT LATER THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR MAY 2-6 AND 4-10  
RESPECTIVELY BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK TRANSITIONS FROM HIGH CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL IN  
THE 6 TO 10 DAY RANGE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY RANGE.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERAL BOUTS OF RAIN IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER  
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE  
RELATIVELY ORDERLY SNOWMELT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK  
PERIOD. A FEW POINTS MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BUT WIDESPREAD  
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR RAINFALL IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK WEVE BEEN CARRYING,  
THIS IS JUST ABOUT THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR MELT IN TERMS OF FLOOD  
IMPACTS.  
 
GIVEN THAT THE REMAINDER OF HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD  
MELT OVER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR  
THIS WINTER-SPRING FLOOD SEASON. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT  
HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. EXTENDED  
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS ALWAYS INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER  
OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY AT  
 
FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/PRODUCT.PHP?SITE=NWS&PRODUCT=HWO&ISSUEDBY=ALY  
 
OBSERVED AND 3 DAY FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND ON  
OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. THREE TO SEVEN DAY ENSEMBLE  
FORECAST INFORMATION CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.  
 

 
 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSALBANY  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSALBANY  
 
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