392  
FGUS71 KALY 162158  
ESFALY  
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-  
111-113-115-VTC003-025-182200-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
558 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017  
 
...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 6 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK  
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...  
 
THIS IS THE SIXTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN  
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY  
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE  
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD MARCH 16TH TO MARCH  
30TH.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
 
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FROM TWO TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL...OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWMELT. NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK HAS RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT BOOST WITH THE  
SNOW STORM ON THE 14TH OF MARCH...BRINGING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL  
BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK  
AREA...AND TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE WESTERN  
MOHAWK RIVER AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER IN NEW YORK AND THE HEADWATERS  
OF THE DEERFIELD RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
SNOW DEPTHS HAVE BEEN BOLSTERED BY SNOWFALL ON THE 14TH OF  
MARCH...LEADING TO SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF  
FEET IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND BERKSHIRES.  
THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT ONE AND HALF TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF  
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.  
 
SNOW DEPTHS IN THE CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION RANGED FROM ONE  
AND A HALF TO TWO FEET...THOUGH STORM TOTALS FOR THE 14TH  
INDICATED AS MUCH AS THREE FEET OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS  
OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS EQUATES TO BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF  
WATER EQUIVALENT...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT  
REMAINS AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT MIXED BAG...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS  
AT ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW DEPTH...AND HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS CARRYING UP TO NEARLY THREE FEET OF SNOW DEPTH...WHICH  
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE BIG WINNER IN THE MARCH 14TH STORM FOR SNOWFALL WAS THE  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE OVER THREE FEET FELL IN SOME  
LOCATIONS. WITH THIS LATEST INFUSION OF SNOW...THE ADIRONDACKS  
ALSO CONTINUE THEIR ABOVE NORMAL SNOW TREND FOR THIS  
WINTER...WITH SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO FEET...UP TO  
THREE FEET ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MANY SNOW SURVEYS WERE  
DELAYED DUE TO THE SNOW STORM...HOWEVER ONE AND A HALF TO FOUR AND  
A QUARTER INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WERE MEASURED IN THE GREAT  
SACANDAGA WATERSHED.  
   
..RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
28 DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW  
YORK RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO  
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ STREAMGAGES. THE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS  
ARE GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH  
STREAMFLOWS INCREASING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO NORMAL TO  
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THOUGH  
LINGERING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WERE NOTED IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND  
HUDSON VALLEY...ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/  
GROUNDWATER WELLS. RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE  
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF RECHARGING GROUNDWATER  
LEVELS...HOWEVER ANY MELT OF THE RECENT SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY  
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER LEVELS. GRIFFIN NEW  
YORK LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY HAD A GROUNDWATER  
LEVEL BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE AS OF 14 MARCH 2017.  
MEANWHILE THE WELL AT SUNY ALBANY WAS WITHIN ITS LOWEST MEDIAN  
GROUNDWATER LEVEL AS OF 14 MARCH 2017.  
 
NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES COURTESY OF THE CLIMATE  
PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 15 MARCH 2017 CONTINUE TO INDICATE  
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN  
NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ELSEWHERE  
CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  
   
..WATER SUPPLY
 
 
 
SNOWMELT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY HAS FILLED MANY  
RESERVOIRS BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR.  
 
NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/  
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 90 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS  
RIGHT AT NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY. THIS IS ONE PERCENT HIGHER THAN  
AT THE TIME OF THE LAST OUTLOOK...TWO WEEKS AGO.  
 
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE  
BLACK RIVER...AND UPPER HUDSON WATERSHEDS...ARE ALL ABOVE TO WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER THAN  
NORMAL SNOWMELT.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A LIGHT  
TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...IS  
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON AREA  
LAKES...STREAMS...AND RIVERS THROUGH THE END OF THIS  
WEEK...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 22ND THROUGH THE 26TH OF MARCH...  
AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 24TH THROUGH THE  
30TH...BOTH CALL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
 
SNOWPACK HAS RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT BOOST WITH THE SNOW STORM ON  
THE 14TH OF MARCH...BRINGING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE  
NORMAL RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND TO ABOVE  
NORMAL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER AND UPPER  
HUDSON RIVER IN NEW YORK AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE DEERFIELD RIVER  
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HOWEVER THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE  
LONGER TERM...BEYOND THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TWO  
WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS JUST KICKS THE FLOOD THREAT CAN DOWN THE  
ROAD...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS AND OTHER HYDROLOGIC  
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE ALBANY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
 
THE SEVENTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR  
THURSDAY...MARCH 30TH. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE  
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE  
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL  
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.  
 
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB  
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN  
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.  
 

 
 
BEW  
 
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