716  
FGUS71 KALY 141335  
ESFALY  
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-  
111-113-115-VTC003-025-161345-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
935 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2017  
 
...ABOVE NORMAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ADIRONDACKS, NEAR  
NORMAL POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND...  
 
THIS IS THE EIGHTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE, SOUTHERN  
VERMONT, BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY  
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE HUDSON,  
MOHAWK AND HOUSATONIC.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FROM APRIL 14TH TO  
APRIL 27TH.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
 
THE TWO WEEKS SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK HAVE FEATURED TEMPERATURES  
BETWEEN TWO AND SIX DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TWO TO SIX INCHES OF  
PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT. SOME MINOR FLOODING  
OCCURRED AS A RESULT, HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS  
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, SO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL  
THERE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
AS A RESULT OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL, MOST OF THE OUTLOOK  
AREA IS NOW SNOW-FREE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE  
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW PACK OF TWO TO SIX INCHES, WITH ABOUT ONE HALF  
TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, REMAINS AVAILABLE TO MELT. A  
FEW ISOLATED SPOTS ARE CARRYING AS MUCH AS TWO TO SIX INCHES OF  
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION TO THE SNOW-FREE ASSESSMENT  
IS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, WHERE  
SNOW IS ALSO LINGERING AT ELEVATION, UP TO SIX INCHES ABOVE 1000  
FEET, WITH 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.  
   
..RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) STREAMGAGES, 28 DAY  
STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK  
ARE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.  
 
ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) GROUNDWATER WELLS,  
GROUNDWATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REBOUND, WITH MOST WELLS REPORTING  
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, THOUGH A FEW WELLS HAVE A WAYS TO GO  
BEFORE THEY REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS.  
 
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT MADE A SIGNIFICANT DENT IN LONG TERM  
DROUGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE,  
WITH THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) FROM APRIL 8  
SHOWING NORMAL TO MODERATELY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK  
AREA. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM THE LAST OUTLOOK TWO WEEKS AGO,  
WHEN THE MARCH 25 PDSI MAPPED MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT FOR MOST  
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
   
..WATER SUPPLY
 
 
 
RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL HAS FILLED RESERVOIRS PREVIOUSLY AT  
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
 
NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (NYCDEP)  
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 99.8 PERCENT OF CAPACITY, WHICH IS  
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THESE OUTLOOKS BEGAN IN JANUARY THAT THESE  
RESERVOIRS WERE AT ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY.  
 
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE  
BLACK RIVER AND UPPER HUDSON WATERSHEDS ARE ALL NEAR TO ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
THE CURRENT ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW  
PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE 6 TO 10  
DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 19TH THROUGH THE 23RD OF APRIL, AS WELL AS  
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 21ST THROUGH THE 27TH, BOTH  
CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE ADIRONDACKS IS ABOVE NORMAL WHERE  
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND THE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE IS NEAR NORMAL.  
 
THE NINTH SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY, APRIL  
27TH. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE  
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL  
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.  
 
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB  
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN  
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS. A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF  
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BY BASIN CAN BE FOUND AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL.  
 

 
 
BEW  
 
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