039  
FNUS71 KBOX 160852  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PRUDENCE ISLAND...NORTHEAST FOREST AND FIRE MANAGAMENT, LLC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
452 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0500 EDT ON JUNE 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING  
TREND. WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS, WEST TO  
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT.  
 
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY ALONG WITH  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH OR  
EXCEED 100 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY  
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY...BUT MUCH OF THIS TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND  
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............54.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...77.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4600 FT AGL  
AROUND NOON, THEN DECREASING TO 1200-2300 FT  
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2300-43500 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 33 INCREASING TO 45 EARLY  
DECREASING TO 34 DECREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 15.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 INCREASING TO 25 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........28 18 5 6 6 16 26 35 44 55 67 79  
WEATHER COV.....ARS  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............58 60 64 67 71 74 76 77 77 77 76 75  
DEWPOINT........55 56 56 55 54 53 53 53 52 53 53 53  
RH..............90 87 75 65 55 48 45 43 42 43 45 46  
HEAT INDEX (F)..58 60 64 67 71 74 76 77 77 77 76 75  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW W SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10  
SURFACE WND DIR.W W W NW NW NW W SW SW SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8  
SURFACE WND GST.6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.6 2.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 9 10 13 12 9 8 9 9 10  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2  
ADI.............5 5 6 19 33 47 42 37 32 30 26 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10002 3 3 13 27 44 40 36 32 26 19 10  
CEILING (KFT)...20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............55.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...73.  
SURFACE WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (400 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................7.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 15 AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN  
INCREASING TO 25 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........54 5 3 1 1 12  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............73 70 67 66 64 63  
DEWPOINT........54 55 56 56 55 55  
RH..............51 59 68 70 73 75  
HEAT INDEX (F)..73 70 67 66 64 63  
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 W 5 W 5 W 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 7 6 6 5  
SURFACE WIND....SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 W 5 W 5 W 3  
SURFACE WND GST.9 8 7 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 200 100 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 8 W 6 W 5 W 5 W 3  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 4  
ADI.............11 4 3 2 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10007 1 1 1 1 0  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 25 15 25  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............57.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...80.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY,  
THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY,  
THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1800-3600 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3 TO  
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (600-20500 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 15 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........16 11 14 24  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0  
TEMP............64 70 78 80  
DEWPOINT........56 57 58 57  
RH..............75 63 50 45  
HEAT INDEX (F)..64 70 78 80  
20 FT WIND......W 3G5 N 3G5 SE 3G5 S 7G8  
SURFACE WIND....W 3G5 N 3G5 SE 3G5 S 7G8  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 1400 3500 2600  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 N 3 SE 3 S 7  
LVORI...........4 3 2 2  
ADI.............4 6 13 18  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 4 11 16  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 25  
 

 
FORECASTER...NOCERA  
REQUESTED BY...JOEL R. CARLSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811570.0/BOX  
.DELDT 06/16/18  
.EMAIL JOELCARLSON@NE-FFM.COM  
 
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