380
FXUS61 KBOX 071518
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN DEVELOPING WAA
PATTERN...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY. SW FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST. TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.
PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY...VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
TODAY...LATEST BUOYS STILL SHOW 5-7 FT SEAS OVER WATERS EAST AND SE
OF ACK. WNA/SWAN INDICATE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON
SO WE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE. WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS.
SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS
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