463
FXUS61 KBOX 250715
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
315 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER LATE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
* BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO.
GLOOMY START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE INVERSION ONLY A FEW HUNDRED OF FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE, TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION IS AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE, THUS FOG AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. REST OF THE DAY FEATURES
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WHILE A DRY DAY, A COUPLE OF SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
ARE NORTHWEST OF I-495. STILL A LOW CHANCE, CAPPED POPS AT
'SLIGHT CHANCE', LESS THAN 25%. A BREEZY AFTERNOON, THE
INVERSION ERODES MID TO LATE MORNING, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO 850MB. BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECT A PERIOD OF BREEZY WEST
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD.
* COOLER WITH SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE TREND THE POPS LOWER AS A
RESULT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE, AROUND 20-30%, OF ANY RAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY BEING THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD. CLEARING SKY
ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WITH LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S WHILE EASTERN
AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT IN
THE MID 30S. A MID-LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, PWATS AROUND 0.2" AND
0.3", NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THINKING WE'D HAVE WIDELY
SCATTERED, NUISANCE TYPE, RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW DEGREES COLDER,
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S BY THE COAST.
LATE IN THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE THOSE SHOWERS IN THE
INTERIOR CHANGE TO A SNOW SHOWER DUE TO CAA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT & AGAIN THU
NIGHT
* MAINLY DRY & SEASONABLE THU AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
50
* MILDER FRI WITH HIGHS LOWER-MIDDLE 50S & SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE
* UNSETTLED/WET/COOL AT TIMES SAT/SUN BUT NOT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT
* POTENTIALLY MILDER BY NEXT MON WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT.
WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A FEW BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS WED
NIGHT PROBABLY IN THE 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. MAINLY DRY ON THU
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW MORE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR AND SOMEWHAT MILDER
TEMPS. HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI/FRI NIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LOW RISK FOR A TOUCH OF SNOW/ICE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRI
NIGHT...BUT THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY JUST SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS A WAVE OR
TWO OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. IN FACT...WE COULD BE PRETTY
CHILLY ESPECIALLY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY JAMMED TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF
UNSETTLED WET/COOL WEATHER BUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. IN FACT...LOW RISK FOR A TOUCH OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT THINKING LIQUID FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. HIGHS PROBABLY ONLY IN THE 40S THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME PLACES MAY EVEN REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
MONDAY...
WE MAY FINALLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MON...ALTHOUGH THIS
TIME OF YEAR THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AT THIS TIME RANGE. BUT IF
THAT IS THE CASE...HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 50S OF 60S. WE ALSO WOULD
NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WHILE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE SCOURING OUT...WET GROUND FROM
THE EARLIER RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP. SO CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM VFR TO LIFR
OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AFTER 12Z INTO THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY
MID-LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH WSW WINDS OF 8-15 KNOTS
AND A FEW GUSTS OF 20+ KNOTS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.
BOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LEANING TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS SCOURING OUT BEFORE THE
MORNING PUSH.
BDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY EARLY TO
MID MORNING...BUT THE EXACT TIMING STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE FZRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTION OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
TODAY: AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH WSW WIND10 TO 15 KNOTS, GUSTS BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS NEAR
SHORE ARE LESS THAN 3 FT. ACROSS EASTERN MA AND 3-5 FT FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH OF RI AND SOUTHERN MA.
TONIGHT: WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
OVERNIGHT, CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. WINDS ARE SW
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. FALLING SEAS, NEAR SHORE ARE 2-4 FT AND OFF
SHORE ARE 4-6 FT.
WEDNESDAY: SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
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