999  
FXUS61 KBOX 191533  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
1033 AM EST MON FEB 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, SO LONG AS ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.  
COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND, BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BEST  
CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TWEAKED THE  
FORECAST TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. SLOWED  
THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST HIGH  
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADARS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF  
THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING  
INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT/FORCING FOR A  
BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON, COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA BY  
EVENING.  
 
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 40S TODAY...BUT  
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCALES TOUCH 50.  
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH  
DEVELOP WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET  
STRENGTHENS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...  
 
WITH CONTINUED S-SW WIND FLOW IN PLACE, WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SEE QPF AMOUNTS ON  
ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP,  
THOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG S COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES.  
SOME QUESTION WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AND BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD WITH THE STEADY S-SW WINDS IN PLACE.  
 
SHOWERS MAY START TO TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
 
WILL SEE NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH  
THE MILD WIND FLOW IN PLACE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S  
EXPECTED EARLY, WHICH MAY REACH CLOSE TO 50 TOWARD DAYBREAK  
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
 
TUESDAY...  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG S COASTAL AREAS  
EARLY, THEN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER,  
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK DURING  
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF THE  
CLOUDS DO BREAK, TEMPS COULD SOAR HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECAST.  
 
AT THIS POINT, THE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER BUT STILL HAVE  
FORECASTED TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE S COAST  
WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* WEDNESDAY: NEAR ALL TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGHS MIGHT BE  
APPROACHED IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED  
 
* COOLER THU/FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL  
 
* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND  
WITH PTYPE FAVORING RAIN ALTHOUGH A BIT OF ICE/SNOW CAN NOT BE  
RULED OUT  
 
DETAILS...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...  
 
MASSIVE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUS  
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF VERY MILD AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW  
TEMPS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 50 AWAY FROM THE COOLER MARINE  
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTH COAST. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH HIGH  
DEWPOINT AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF 594 DECAMETERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST WILL PUMP AN INCREDIBLY MILD AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION FOR  
LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN 850T RISING TO  
BETWEEN +12C AND +14C. GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND FROM THE  
COOLING MARINE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. IF  
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...RECORD HIGHS WOULD BE BROKEN AND  
NEAR ALL TIME FEBRUARY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE  
CHALLENGED. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE ARE JAMMED UP  
IN A BUNCH OF LOW CLOUDS. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THIS AS A  
POSSIBILITY...BUT OFTEN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ABLE TO ALLOW FOR  
THESE TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE  
HIGH TEMPS WOULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOMETHING  
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...  
 
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,  
1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
WEST AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU.  
THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. AT THIS TIME...THE  
BULK OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY BUT WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF  
MAINLY ANA FRONTAL SHOWERS WHICH ARE DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE  
GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING, BUT THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER  
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE  
PERIOD TO BE A WASHOUT...JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY TO TIME  
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE REMAINS  
PRETTY STRONG...SO PTYPE FAVORS MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER...IF A  
COUPLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE SLOWER TO RETREAT IT  
COULD BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BIT OF SNOW/ICE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TODAY...MAINLY VFR THIS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR  
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY EARLY  
EVENING. SHOWERS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 20Z AND  
00Z.  
 
TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED -SHRA AND  
PATCHY FOG. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST, INCLUDING  
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. S WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KT ACROSS CAPE COD  
AND THE ISLANDS.  
 
TUESDAY...MVFR VSBYS/MVFR-IFR CIGS IN SCATTERED -SHRA AND  
PATCHY FOG EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR TO LOCAL IFR  
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, PATCHY BR.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR  
POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
FRIDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE RA WITH A LOW  
RISK OF SOME ICE/SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TODAY...EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS  
BY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS. ALSO...SOME  
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS WHERE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO  
5-6 FT THERE AS WELL.  
 
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...S WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER  
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO BLOCK ISLAND AND RI SOUNDS. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY TONIGHT,  
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE ON THE EASTERN WATERS TUESDAY. REDUCED  
VISIBILITY LINGERS TUESDAY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  
 
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. AREAS OF VISIBILITY  
1 TO 3 NM.  
 
WEDNESDAY: A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE. AREAS OF ROUGH  
SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. LOCAL  
VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY...(SINCE  
RECORDS BEGAN)  
 
BOSTON.........73 (2/24/2017)  
HARTFORD.......73 (2/24/1985)  
PROVIDENCE.....72 (2/24/1985)  
WORCESTER......69 (2/24/2017)  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...  
 
FEBRUARY.......2/20......2/21  
 
BOSTON.........68 (1930) 63 (1906)  
HARTFORD.......69 (1930) 63 (1930)  
PROVIDENCE.....69 (1930) 63 (1930)  
WORCESTER......65 (1930) 59 (1930)  
 
RECORD WARMEST MIN TEMPERATURE...  
 
FEBRUARY.......2/20......2/21  
 
BOSTON.........46 (1930) 45 (1994)  
HARTFORD.......50 (1981) 49 (1981)  
PROVIDENCE.....48 (1981) 50 (1981)  
WORCESTER......47 (1981) 43 (2002)  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ230>234-236-251.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-  
254.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST  
TUESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT  
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/EVT  
SHORT TERM...EVT  
LONG TERM...FRANK  
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT  
MARINE...FRANK/EVT  
CLIMATE...STAFF  
 
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