228
FXUS61 KBOX 281103
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
703 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT
WON'T RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON
THURSDAY AND ON SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER.
SUBSIDENCE FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SNE TOGETHER
WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR TODAY. THIS, DESPITE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS A DECK OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD
PRECEDING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN, WITH LESS SUN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE CLOUDCOVER,
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S TODAY. COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST,
BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEABREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THUS,
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S, THOUGH
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A BRIEF SEABREEZE DROPS TEMPS FOR A
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, EXITING LATE THURSDAY.
* MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WET WEATHER SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNSET, LIKELY ENTERING
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT BY 8PM AND OVERSPREADING INTO NORTHEAST MA BY 3-
4 AM. ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD, STRATIFORM SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS AS WELL AS THICK
CLOUDCOVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MAKING
IT OUT OF THE 60S ALL DAY. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES OVER
SOUTHEAST MA LATE IN THE DAY AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
AREAS AND EVENING FOR EASTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY,
THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SATURDAY. DRYING OUT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS DISCUSSED, WILL HAVE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. ON
FRIDAY A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH SIGNS IT
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS THE CUT-OFF
LOW OFF SHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO DRYING CONDITIONS. TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY, A WEAK FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A ROUGE SHOWER OR GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT FEEL
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, ALBEIT MORE CLOUDY THAN NOT.
THOSE SEEKING A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND, PLEASE, DO NOT COME AFTER THE
MESSENGER! THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARDS A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EMERGES OFF THE
COAST WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT PART OF SATURDAY COULD
HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS OF NOW,
THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK AS ROBUST AS LAST THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. BUT
THOSE WHO ARE RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WIND AND ROUGH SEAS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY HAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS WEEKEND IS
COOLER, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S BY
TUESDAY. FOR NIGHTLY LOWS, THERE THOSE HOLD STEADY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SSW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, HIGHEST SW WINDS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF SEABREEZE AT BOS
17-19Z WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW; MOST LIKELY THAT A SEABREEZE
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR WED EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN THE 4Z/5Z TO 11Z/12Z THU TIME FRAME. VARIABLE WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS LESS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR MUCH OF THE DAY IN -SHRA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE EVENING. SHRA COMING TO AN END
BETWEEN 17 AND 21Z.
BOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR, POSSIBLE SEABREEZE AFTER
17Z BUT MORE LIKELY THAT IS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
BDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA LIKELY,
ISOLATED TSRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY, ISOLATED TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT WILL STILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER US THOUGH WITH
WINDS MAINLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND RELATIVELY FLAT SEAS. SO NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS ON
THURSDAY DUE TO SEAS OF 5-6 FT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...BW/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BW/DOOLEY
MARINE...BW/DOOLEY
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