402
FXUS61 KBOX 042030
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL STILL BE THE MORE THAN USUAL EPISODES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND...RUNNING INTO THE PERSISTENT LARGE AND
STATIONARY WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SNE BUT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL CT EXTENDING INTO SW RI ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONE. THIS ALSO WHERE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THINK MAIN FOCUS
FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST IN ELEVATED KI/TT
AXIS AND GFS SHOWING AREA OF LOW 50S TT MOVING THROUGH. HAVE SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MUGGY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS INDICATE A PULSE OF OMEGA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO REGION
SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT OR SAT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFRENCES.
WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH SHOWS 850 MB LOW AND ASSOCD LOW LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN AREA OF CONVERGENCE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS COASTAL SNE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE SOUTH OF
THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY NEAR THE COAST ON
SAT AS IT APPEARS BULK OF CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST.
FURTHER NORTH...WE WILL HAVE JUST CHC POPS BUT IT MAY STAY DRY NORTH
OF ROUTE 2 REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ECMWF/UKMET DO BRING QPF
NORTHWARD INTO NH BUT WENT DRY SW NH FOR NOW. LATER FCSTS MAY NEED
REFINEMENT.
MOCLDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LIKE TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS
SAT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS NEAR 80...BUT UNDERCUT MAV
TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER
70S DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS IS LOW.
IT APPEARS SFC FRONT AND ASSOCD DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE
BACK NORTHARD INTO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
IS LOW. FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS CHC POPS SOUTH OF ROUTE
2 LATE SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF NOT BEYOND.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT. THE
INSTABILITY JUST DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE THERE IN ANY OF THE MODELS.
THE SREF DOES INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
BUT THAT IS THE MOST OF ANY MODEL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
THAT PWAT VALUES ARE STILL OVER 1.5 TIMES THE NORM. HIGHS WILL
CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 70.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES OVER SUNDAY/S HIGHS BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S.
TUESDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 2M TEMPS UP AROUND 90F AND 850MB
TEMPS 17-18C. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP. SO...EVEN THOUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO
BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY.
SOMETIME AROUND MID WEEK...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHEN THIS DOES MOVE THROUGH...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE/LL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH IT. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WE COULD
HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE HOT DAYS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF WITH THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL CT TIED TO CLEARING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED IN SOUTHERN CT AND MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
RI. STABILITY INDICES ARE LESS FAVORABLE E OF CT...SO THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY DO SO. RISK OF A LIGHT SHOWER
AROUND PVD AND POSSIBLE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER
AROUND THE TAF SITES IS SMALL.
NIGHTTIME AND A CONTINUING EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPING
STRATUS LAYER AT BOS-PVD-FMH-HYA-ACK. EAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY EVEN FOG
WORCESTER AIRPORT AND ITS HILLTOP. EXPECT IFR-LIFR IN THESE AREAS
AND POSSIBLY BDL-BAF. MHT VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN FOG LATE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MASS PIKE AND RAIN INTO BDL-PVD AND FMH-HYA-ACK. WILL HAVE IFR IN
RAIN AREAS AND MVFR CIGS BOS-ORH-BDL. MHT IS NORTH OF THE MOIST FLOW
AND SO WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT...CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY
FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AS WELL AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
LIKELY.
MARINE
SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS DOWN TO 5
FT AND 4 FT AT MVCO. WE CONTD SCA FOR OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL 6
PM FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NE LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. VSBY
RESTRICTION IN FOG EXPECTED AND THERE COULD BE A TSTM OR 2 LATE
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.
SAT...FAST MOVING LLJ ASSOCD WITH 850 MB CIRCUALTION MAY BRING A
BRIEF G20 KTS TO OUTER WATERS...OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME WESTERLY AFTER SFC WAVE PASSES BY. SEAS 2-4 FT OVER OPEN
WATERS. PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.
SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OVER
OPEN WATERS. MORE FOG LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY AGAIN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 NM ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY...SEAS MAY REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO PROMPT THE RETURN
OF AN ABOVE NORMAL RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDSAY...SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-
255.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
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