929  
FXUS61 KBOX 210859  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
359 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY MOVES OFFSHORE  
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS US DRY WEATHER AND A TREND  
TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT  
DISSIPATES AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. A SERIES OF  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN  
NEW ENGLAND, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A  
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, LIKELY  
BRINGING SOME RAIN, FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND MORE SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS  
ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 10  
AND 17, EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THAT SAME RANGE. DEWPOINTS ALONG THE  
COAST, ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS, ARE MOSTLY IN THE  
20S. EXPECT MIN TEMPS 20-25 IN THOSE ARE  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND  
LIGHT WIND. CIRRUS MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY MAY  
THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT  
HEATING TO TAP TEMPS AT 925 MB AND BRING SFC TEMPS INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AIRFLOW IS LIGHT DURING THE  
EVENING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL INITIALLY. SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN INCREASES A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER  
MOSTLY THIN IN THE EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS, BUT THIS THICKENS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF BOTH FACTORS, WE EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO COOL IN THE EVENING, BUT THEN RISE SLOWLY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
 
DYING COLD FRONT IS BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A 105 KNOT UPPER JET  
WHICH IS ALSO DIMINISHING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND  
DAWN. THIS DOESN'T INSPIRE GREAT CONFIDENCE OF PCPN, BUT ENOUGH  
TO MAINTAIN LOW-END CHANCE POPS.  
 
IF THERE IS PCPN, WHAT TYPE WILL IT BE. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE  
EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR, AND IN THE MID 30S  
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS MAY  
PRODUCE SCATTERED ICY SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR. WITH THE SCATTERED  
DISTRIBUTION OF THE SHOWERS AND THEIR POSSIBLY DRYING UP AS THEY  
MOVE EAST, EXPECT ANY ICY SPOTS TO BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. BUT  
DRIVERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF  
AIR INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING  
SHOULD THIN AND PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS AT  
1000 MB AND 950 MB SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS NEAR 50. TEMPS AT 925  
MB SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S. EXPECT MAX SFC TEMPS  
IN THE 50S, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IF WE GET SUFFICIENT SOLAR  
HEATING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE THURSDAY  
* LINGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MAKE KEEPS TEMPS COOLER  
* MILD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIKELY SOMETIME SAT/SAT NIGHT  
* BLUSTERY AND COOLER SUN/MON  
 
PATTERN OVERVIEW...  
 
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY, STILL HAVE SOME  
MESOSCALE FEATURES TO RESOLVE. OVERALL, MEAN RIDGE TO START THE  
FORECAST PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOPS  
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAIN AND  
EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY. BEFORE  
THEN, A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD SAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  
AFTER POTENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PATTERN APPEARS TO TURN  
MORE ZONAL RESULTING IN SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW  
FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR  
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
DETAILS...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN THE  
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE DAY DRY ON  
THURSDAY, HOWEVER HAVE NOTICED AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH  
DRY AIR ALOFT, SO CANNOT RULE OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR DRIZZLE  
FOR THE AREA. BEST LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.  
 
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING DURING THE DAY. BUT  
WITH THE POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO 950MB COULD STILL SEE LOW TO MID  
60S. RIGHT NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOW 60S BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR A FEW SITES IN SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND.  
 
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS 925  
MB LLJ INCREASES TO 30-40 KTS. IF WE MIX HIGHER THAN 950 MB THEN WE  
COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 25-30 MPH.  
 
FRIDAY...  
 
AGAIN A GOOD CHECK OF FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY, BUT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WHICH COULD KEEP THE DRIZZLE  
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA.  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY WHICH COULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MA BUT THE FRONT COULD SAG A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD.  
LARGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD IS POSSIBLE AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BUST  
POTENTIAL, WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE.  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT.  
 
SATURDAY...  
 
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE  
REGION ENDING THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LLJ INCREASING  
TO 35-45 KTS AS 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO 12C. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. PWAT  
VALUES ALSO INCREASE NEAR 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHERN STREAM  
MOISTURE IS FED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SECONDARY  
SURFACE LOW THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH COULD INDICATE  
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL AS EC  
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.  
 
FROPA WILL BE QUICK AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD  
SEE SOME WET FLAKES ON THE BACKSIDE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE  
IS LEFT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...  
 
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY NW FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BE  
CLOSE TO 20F. WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO INCREASE CLOSE TO 30 MPH AS THE  
REGION MIXES WELL ABOVE 850MB.  
 
A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,  
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, BUT IT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND BRINGING IN  
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND.  
 
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS  
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA. DEPENDING ON SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING  
RAIN IN INTERIOR MA.  
 
WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE  
IN THE MORNING, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR.  
 
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD  
KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR.  
 
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY FLOW AND MVFR CIGS  
IF BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, VFR WITH SW WINDS IF  
FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TODAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL BRING DIMINISHING  
WINDS AND SEAS. ALL LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE  
DROPPED.  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, BRINGING INCREASING WIND  
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL  
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. A DIMINISHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS TO THE WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE  
3 FEET OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY SW FLOW WITH  
GUSTS TO 20 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF A BACKDOOR  
FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW IF THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH, BUT CONTINUED  
SW FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IF FRONT REMAINS TO THE NORTH.  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SCA  
GUSTS LIKELY. WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE. VSBYS REDUCED IN  
DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR THU FEB 23  
 
BOS...65/1990  
BDL...68/1990  
PVD...60/1990  
ORH...61/1990  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN  
NEAR TERM...WTB  
SHORT TERM...WTB  
LONG TERM...DUNTEN  
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN  
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN  
CLIMATE...STAFF  
 
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