171  
FNUS71 KAKQ 101036  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAINING AREA BURN...US ARMY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
636 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TODAY, THEN LIFTS  
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE  
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF A SHOWER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER  
2 PM.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT AM; 40-50 PERCENT PM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2400-2900 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............87 89 82 84 86 88 89 91 92  
WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................73 75 76 77 78 78 78 78 77  
RH..................90 84 85 79 76 76 76 79 82  
20 FT WIND DIR......N NE NE NE NE NE E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N NE E E NE NE NE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9  
LVORI...............6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.................3 8 15 17 18 18 20 23 26  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 20 20 20 20 40 40 40 50  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 6 10 13 13 15 16 18 19  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH, BECOMING EAST AROUND 18  
MPH LATE.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............93 94 95 94 93 91 90 89 88 89 89 90  
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................75 73 71 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 69 69  
RH..................87 93 97 100 100 100 97 97 97 97 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.8 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E NE NE NE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 7 10 15 18  
LVORI...............4 6 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 5  
ADI.................24 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 7 12  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....16 11 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 8  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY. A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............90 92 92 93 94 92  
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC  
TEMP................69 69 69 70 73 73  
RH..................100 100 100 93 84 87  
20 FT WIND..........NE 3 NE 2 NE 3 NE 4 E 4 E 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)........500 500 1000 1300 1500 1600  
TRANSPORT WIND......E 18 NE 16 E 18 E 17 E 14 NE 12  
LVORI...............5 5 5 4 4 4  
ADI.................12 12 23 26 23 19  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60 60 60 60 60 60  
HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8 7 16 20 18 15  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCGEE  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MCCLELLAND  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1717021.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.S.MCCLELLAND.CIV@MAIL.MIL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page