204  
FNUS71 KAKQ 210833  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHYHOPE...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
433 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON APRIL 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, PUSHING  
ACROSS THE BURN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL  
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS  
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG  
EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT ESE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5000-5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............68 65 63 60 61 61 62 61 60 59  
WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV............ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP................60 66 71 75 79 81 82 82 81 80  
RH..................98 87 73 66 58 54 53 52 52 54  
20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD......4 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S SW SW W W W W W W SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6 6 7 8 10 13 14 14 14 12  
LVORI...............6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.................6 8 13 18 26 34 41 43 41 36  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 30 30 30 50 50 50 50  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 6 11 19 29 43 56 59 58 53  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH  
5 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............61 62 63 64 66 67 68 70 71 72 73 74  
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP................76 72 68 67 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 59  
RH..................62 71 84 84 87 90 84 84 81 78 78 78  
20 FT WIND DIR......W NW NW N NE E NE N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD......4 3 2 2 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 10 15 10 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.7 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW S S S SE E E NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 5 2 1 2 3 3 5 6 7 7 7  
LVORI...............2 3 6 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 4 4  
ADI.................22 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 6 6  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....50 50 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 20  
HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....27 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2300-2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 14 TO 17  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............75 79 79 80 80 84  
WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................58 57 56 57 59 60  
RH..................77 75 77 75 72 64  
20 FT WIND..........N 5 N 5 N 6 N 6 N 5 N 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 15 15 10 15  
MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 1000 1800 2500 2400  
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 N 10 N 15 N 17 NW 15  
LVORI...............4 3 4 3 3 1  
ADI.................5 6 14 28 37 33  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20 40 40 40 50 50  
HAINES INDEX........3 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 9 24 37 32  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCGEE  
REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER4  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707317.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL GILBERT.WAGNER@MARYLAND.GOV  
 
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