896  
FNUS71 KAKQ 221057  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR INDIAN CREEK MARSH...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
657 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE  
TRACKS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT THE BURN SITE, WITH  
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALSO OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH MINIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. HIGHS ONLY  
IN THE LOW 50'S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING SUNNY  
(0-10 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE  
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25  
MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 40 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL  
LATE.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 3 MPH...INCREASING TO 32 TO 41 MPH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 68 37 5 5 5 5  
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE........RW RW  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................50 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 47  
RH..................92 80 74 68 60 54 47 44 42 40  
20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD......9 11 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.....20 25 30 40 40 40 40 40 35 35  
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.8 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3 15 29 39 41 40 37 36 35 32  
ADI.................7 30 62 93 98 95 87 84 81 77  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6 28 63 100 106 101 93 91 87 83  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 17 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35  
MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 23 TO 30 MPH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............3 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 5 3 2  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................45 43 41 39 39 38 37 36 35 34 34 33  
RH..................43 45 48 50 50 52 52 54 56 56 56 56  
20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD......14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.....35 35 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 30 30 30  
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....30 29 28 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 24 23  
ADI.................70 38 37 36 36 36 34 33 27 26 26 26  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....75 67 61 57 54 52 47 43 39 35 32 29  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30  
MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 23 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 8 TO 13  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............4 8 3 0 0 0  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................32 32 38 42 42 42  
RH..................61 61 46 36 34 36  
20 FT WIND..........N 14 N 13 N 10 N 8 NE 7 NE 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.....30 30 25 20 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)........1200 800 1900 2200 1800 1700  
TRANSPORT WIND......N 23 N 22 N 18 N 15 N 10 NE 8  
ADI.................21 25 34 29 20 18  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....25 16 30 28 17 12  
 

 
FORECASTER...MINNICK  
REQUESTED BY...SUE SPRY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1704861.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL SUSAN_SPRY@FWS.GOV  
 
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