291  
FNUS71 KAKQ 231313  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHEROENHAKA...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
913 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..A WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
 
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID  
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT, SLIDING E-NE ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-4600 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 26 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).............37 21 38 69 55 52 71 80  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................65 67 67 68 68 69 68 67  
RH..................53 50 49 46 44 42 43 44  
20 FT WIND DIR......E SE SE SE E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD......5 6 6 8 9 9 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 20 20 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE E E SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....18 23 24 24 23 24 24 26  
LVORI...............3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.................34 44 52 56 59 61 64 64  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10  
HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....41 74 84 91 93 95 94 101  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY  
IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1300 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).............89 93 94 92 91 94 94 95 96 98 99 100  
WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE........ RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV............  
TEMP................66 63 60 58 56 55 54 54 54 53 53 53  
RH..................45 49 54 60 65 69 74 77 80 85 87 89  
20 FT WIND DIR......E E E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD......7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE E E SE E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 23 15 17 15 14 14 15 15 14 13 12  
LVORI...............1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5  
ADI.................56 29 22 19 17 13 13 13 13 12 11 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 40 40 40 40 70 70 70 70 70 70  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....71 53 24 24 18 14 11 8 5 5 4 4  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL LATE  
AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............100 100 99 98 97 95  
WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC  
TEMP................53 55 58 61 63 63  
RH..................92 91 86 81 75 78  
20 FT WIND..........E 7 E 7 E 9 E 10 E 9 E 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (FT)........400 300 600 900 1100 1000  
TRANSPORT WIND......E 13 E 17 E 18 E 20 E 20 SE 20  
LVORI...............6 5 4 3 3 3  
ADI.................12 19 21 22 26 25  
CHC OF PCPN (%).....80 90 90 90 70 70  
HAINES INDEX........3 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4 5 10 14 18 17  
 

 
FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO  
REQUESTED BY...BOBBY CLONTZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1807446.0/AKQ  
.EMAIL BCLONTZ@TNC.ORG  
 
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