065
FNUS71 KAKQ 031201
FWSAKQ
SPOT FORECAST FOR PINEY GROVE PRESERVE - UNIT 1...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
801 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S. RHS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
40 AND 50%. AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS AND DROP IN
TEMPERATURES (TO THE 60S) ARE THEN EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 2-4 PM TIME RANGE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO
10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE EAST 15 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (45200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................13 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 62 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38 38 42 47 52 55 58 61
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............78 82 84 85 87 82 78 73
RH..............62 55 49 45 40 47 54 64
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW S SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 4 4 6 8 11
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 5 6 6 11 14 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.2 4.3 5.5 6.6 5.0 3.4 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW S S SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 3 5 7 10 15 18
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
ADI.............13 14 18 29 51 60 62 41
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 10 13 20 37 45 44 28
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT, THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (5800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 TO 35.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........63 65 68 66 68 71 74 77 80 70 72 74
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............70 66 62 62 61 60 60 59 59 59 59 60
RH..............68 78 87 84 87 90 90 93 96 96 96 93
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 9 7 6 4 5 6 6 6 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 14 12 9 6 8 9 11 9 8 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 12
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
ADI.............35 16 15 14 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..23 17 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (31900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 TO 40.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........76 80 87 89 85 85
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............60 62 65 69 73 73
RH..............93 87 84 76 68 66
20 FT WIND......E 4 E 4 E 6 E 6 SE 7 E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 9 11 12 13
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 1600 2200 2900 2900
TRANSPORT WIND..E 12 E 12 E 12 SE 12 SE 10 E 12
LVORI...........6 4 4 3 3 3
ADI.............8 13 23 29 34 37
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 10 16 21 27 30
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECASTER...WRAY
REQUESTED BY...BOBBY CLONTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413068.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BCLONTZ@TNC.ORG
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