130  
FNUS71 KLWX 192054  
FWSLWX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SKYLAND FIRE...SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
354 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1800 EST ON NOVEMBER 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH  
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL  
WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE BEFORE  
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS  
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT, DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 26 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4100 FT AGL, DECREASING TO 800-2100 FT AGL  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH, DECREASING TO 14 TO 16  
MPH LATE.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (48900-97300 KNOT-FT),  
DECREASING TO POOR TO GOOD (9900-35000 KNOT-FT)  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........61 55 50 44 37 32  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CWR.............20 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............36 33 32 31 30 29  
RH..............64 72 72 69 66 66  
20 FT WIND......W 17 W 15 W 15 W 16 W 16 NW 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.26 24 24 25 25 24  
MIX HGT (FT)....4100 3200 3000 2500 1800 1100  
MIXNG WIND......NW 28 W 26 W 26 NW 26 NW 23 NW 16  
VRATE KT-FT/100097 74 70 57 35 15  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL, INCREASING TO 1700-3000 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5600-36600 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........31 13 8 9 9 8  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............27 29 35 42 46 47  
RH..............71 66 49 39 37 35  
20 FT WIND......W 13 W 9 W 7 W 8 SW 9 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 14 12 13 13 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 1200 2500 3000 2400  
MIXNG WIND......W 12 W 9 W 9 W 13 W 14 SW 14  
VRATE KT-FT/10007 6 10 27 37 29  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........13 9 7 28 27 12  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............42 37 36 35 35 33  
RH..............43 52 54 59 59 66  
20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 SW 8 SW 9 SW 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 13 11 12 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
MIXNG WIND......SW 9 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 0 0 0 0 0  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH, BECOMING SOUTH 17 TO 22  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-31300 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........34 35 17 36 40 27  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............31 35 45 52 54 53  
RH..............72 56 40 38 40 44  
20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 10 SW 12 SW 11 SW 12 SW 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 17 16 17 19  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 100 1200 1700 1400  
MIXNG WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 10 S 17 S 21 S 20  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 1 18 31 24  
 

 
FORECASTER...SNYDER  
REQUESTED BY...IC RUDACILLE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1718981.2/LWX  
 
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