498  
FXUS61 KAKQ 180113  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
913 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
BIG BUBBLE OF COOL AIR PARKED RIGHT ON TOP OF VA THIS EVENING.  
SKIES CLEAR WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S SINCE SUNSET.  
NOTICED DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 40S AS WELL. QUICK  
LOOK AT SOME OF THE 00Z DATA SUGGESTS READINGS DROP TO BETWEEN  
34 AND 37 DEGREES OVER THE PIEDMONT, UPR 30S-LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.  
ALTHOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER, BEST  
CHCS REMAIN WEST OF I95 WHERE CURRENT FROST ADVSRY WILL BE  
MAINTAINED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AS  
THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. SUNNY/CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 65-70F FOLLOWED BY  
HIGHS THURSDAY OF 70-75F. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S  
FOR MOST PLACES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO  
THE LOW/MID 50S COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH SKY CONDITIONS NO  
WORSE THAN PARTLY SUNNY. MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY THE  
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT. ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS DEEPER TROUGH  
ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. WILL  
SHOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL COOL  
DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SAT-MON IN THE MID-UPR  
70S EXCEPT 70-75 ALONG THE COAST. LOWS SAT NITE 50-60. LOWS SUN  
NITE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPR 50S TO  
MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND  
PROVIDING DRY WX WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.  
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON AND TUE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT  
ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL  
ENDING OF THE COLD ADVECTION. THIS ALL SPELLS THE WEAKENING OF  
THE WIND FIELDS. SO WHILE THE NE WINDS CONTINUE, BUT THEY WILL  
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. SEAS ARE ALSO DROPPING AS  
WELL WITH THE RELAXING WIND FIELD. SO WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL  
DROP THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, CURRITUCK  
SOUND AND THE 2 NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THE REMAINS SCA FLAGS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT AND MIDNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS  
MAY IMPROVE SO THAT THE ADVISORIES CAN BE DROPPED EARLY.  
 
THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA  
TONIGHT AND THE HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A WEAK  
FRONT THAT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD TURN THE WINDS TO THE NW BRIEFLY AND MAY  
KICK WINDS UP TO THE 10 - 15 KT RANGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT  
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE KAKQ RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18TH FOR  
RADOME REPAIRS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-  
060>062-064>069-509>511.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JDM  
NEAR TERM...MPR  
SHORT TERM...JDM  
LONG TERM...JDM  
AVIATION...TMG  
MARINE...ESS/TMG  
EQUIPMENT...AKQ  
 
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