448
FXUS61 KAKQ 081949
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVES EAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOOK
FOR CLEAR SKIES TNT AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AS ITS ASSCD MID LVL TROF PUSHES INTO THE SRN
GRT LKS OH VLY RGN LATE MON. MEANWHILE...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
MOVES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO A SECOND HYBRID LOW
OVER THE WRN GULF COAST IS FCSTD TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH IDA AS
IT STARTS TO WEAKEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE THE AL/FL PANHANDLE
COAST BY THEN. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS TO
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA TUE-THU.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO WHAT THE REMNANTS
OF IDA WILL BRING TO OUR REGION...AND IT IS CURRENTLY THE OUTRIGHT
OUTLIER BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE GRT LKS RGN. SEEMS THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE...THUS WEAKER BROAD SYSTEM THAN ONE TO
BOMB OUT. THEREFORE SIDING CLOSER TO LATEST NAM/SREF/ECMWF SOLN FOR
NOW WITH SUPPORT FROM HPC AND BULK OF TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR CHS OF RA/SHRA ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA (ESP SRN
THIRD) STARTING LATE TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED. OVERALL THINKING
PRECIP MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH PRES CAN START TO MOVE INTO THE RGN.
COULD ALSO START TO SEE STRONG ERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BY
THEN.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR MON (BUT A FEW
NOTCHES HIGHER) AND UPR 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S MON/TUE NIGHT. WEDS TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY GOING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BEGINNING OF THIS PRD WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY
OF THE LOW PRS SYSTM ASSCTD WITH WHAT IS CRNTLY "IDA". RTHR LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME AS TO JUST HOW LONG
PCPN CONTS ACROSS FA GIVEN NMRS MODEL SOLNS. STARTED WITH HPC GRIDS
BUT HAD TO MAKE NMRS ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITE / THURS TIME FRAME
BASED ON TRYING TO MESH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE XTNDD FCST.
FOR NOW...INCRSD CLOUD COVERAGE & TMP GRIDS AS WELL AS XTNDG CHC
POPS (RAIN) ACROSS FA WED NITE. LOWS IN THE 40S TO L50S. ELECTED
TO KEEP THU DRY BUT WILL LWR TMPS GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO BEHIND POTENT LOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE RGN BEHIND THE STORM. PLAN ON TRENDING
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND STICKING WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE FCST FOR
FRI THRU NXT WKEND. HIGHS FRI 55-60 AND IN THE 60S NXT WKEND.
LOWS FRI MORN M30S-M40S AND 40-50 NXT WKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.
THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.
MARINE
HIGH PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST RESULTING IN WNDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS
ALONG WITH SEAS BTWN 2-3 FT THRU MON NITE. CNDTNS XPCTD TO REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS TUE...BUT NE WNDS BEGIN TO INCRS THE SEAS TO BTWN 3-4
FT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
SCA'S XPCTD TO OVRSPRD MARINE AREA TUE NITE AS LOW PRS APPRCHS
APPRCHS FROM THE S. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND HERE AS THE FCST WILL ALL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE LOW. PER COORD CALL WITH
OPC/MHX/LWX...WILL CONT TO INCRS WNDS WED WITH GUSTS TO LOW END GALE
XPCTD TO OVRSPRD CSTL WTRS S-N BEGINNING WED AFTRN ACROSS SRN CSTL
WTRS THEN WED NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL WTRS. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SND ATTM. CUD SEE GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF
THIS FAR OUT. WILL CAP SEA HEIGHT THIS FAR OUT BTWN 8-10 FT. CSTL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY MID WEEK AS WELL.
WILL UPDATE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE HWO FOR THE MID WEEK PRD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
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