120  
FXUS61 KAKQ 190027  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
827 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,  
THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW  
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NY, EXTENDING SSW INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.  
LIGHT NW FLOW IS PLACE ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA, TIGHTENING TO  
A MORE ROBUST WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE  
CONUS. EARLIER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NW ZONES AS WELL  
AS THE SEABREEZE TSTMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC HAVE DISSIPATED,  
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA. IT REMAINS VERY  
WARM/HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES STILL MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEW  
PTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A LIGHT SE TO S WIND OR NEAR CALM  
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SW AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF FOG LATER  
TONIGHT, GENERALLY NOW KEEPING IT CONFINED OFF THE DELMARVA  
COAST. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. WOULD  
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FROM MIDNIGHT  
THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM, BUT NOTHING TO THE EXTENT OF WHAT OCCURRED  
LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID  
70S.  
 
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
TUES STARTS OFF PT TO MSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY RISING THRU THE  
80S AND INTO THE 90S. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM  
THE NORTH AFTER 18Z WITH THE LATEST DATA SHOWING SCT CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT AS A WEAK S/W DROPS SE. THE TEMPS COMBINED  
WITH DP TEMPS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES  
RISING ABOVE 100 WITH VALUES AOA 105 MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I95  
AND SOUTH OF I64. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME MIXING OUT OF THE  
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING PEAK HEATING HRS. THUS, HAVE  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVSRY FOR EASTERN AREAS. INCLUDED  
THE RICHMOND METRO AREA IN THE ADVSRY NOT WANTING TO SPLIT HAIRS.  
OF COURSE, THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON JUST HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVERAGE  
INCREASES AND HOW FAST ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION, SOME  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
GIVEN THE ALREADY HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING 0-6 KM BULK  
SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PW'S APPRCHG  
2 INCHES. SPC ALREADY HAS US IN A MARGINAL SVR RISK FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S EXCEPT UPR 80S-LWR 90S ERN SHORE.  
 
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WEAKENS TUE EVENING, BUT KEPT LOW CHC  
POPS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT DUE TO THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTH  
IVOF THE CHES BAY. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.  
 
APPEARS WE DO IT AGAIN WED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE  
AREA WITH ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH BETWEEN 90-95 SOUTH  
AND MID-UPR 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX  
DROPPING ESE ALONG THE BNDRY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
TSTMS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL SVR RISK MAINLY FOR  
DAMAGING WINDS (EXCEPT THE LWR MD ERN SHORE).  
 
THE BNDRY WEAKENS WED NIGHT BUT KEPT CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS  
70-75. MORE OF THE SAME THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT AS HOT WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOW STRONG RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
US AND GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH EXITING  
THE NORTHEASTERN US WHILE A CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ARE ENTRENCHED  
OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF  
COAST WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE  
CENTRAL US TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND  
NORTHEASTERN US BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. AT THE SURFACE,  
THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT ON SATURDAY. THE  
QUESTION IS HOW FAR THE FRONT GOES AS THE GFS AND ECMWF GET THE  
FRONT WELL INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH  
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTS GET THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO HAVE HELD  
ON TO SOME POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THINKING THE FRONT WILL LINGER A LITTLE CLOSER  
THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. ONCE THE FRONT DISSOLVES ON  
SATURDAY, THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE  
HIGH TO THE NE RETREATS AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES HEADS TOWARD SE CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMER AND  
MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND  
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON  
SATURDAY. THIS DAY SHOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON  
STORMS WITH THE ADDED FORCING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  
 
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SE US REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE  
MODELS TRYING TO BREAK IT DOWN ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN US WHICH WOULD SUGGEST  
THAT THE FRONT WOULD GO THROUGH AND WOULD LIKE GENERATE SOME  
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BACK TO  
CHANCE LEVELS ON MONDAY AFTER REDUCING VALUES TO SLIGHT CHANCE  
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S. BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND OF THE MODELS PERSIST OR  
IF THE RIDGING OVER THE SE US MAINTAINS IT HOLD ON THE WEATHER  
AND THE FRONTS CONTINUE TO STALL OUT NEAR THE VA/NC REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
TSTMS THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC HAVE  
DISSIPATED, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAILING. GUIDANCE  
HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING  
TO THE SW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KSBY/KPHF OVERNIGHT  
BUT THINK THAT DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY (COVERAGE TO BE MUCH LESS  
THAN LAST NIGHT). SCT-BKN CU WILL DEVELOP WED AFTN, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z DURING THE LAST  
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD (HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT KSBY/KRIC AND  
LOWEST AT KECG).  
 
OUTLOOK...  
PERIODIC SHWRS/TSTMS WED (PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING) AS  
A FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE  
OF STORMS SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE NC ON THU, AND IT LOOKS  
MAINLY DRY ON FRI.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN E-SE INTO THIS EVENING AT 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS  
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE THEN SW TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-  
15 KT. WAVES/SEAS 1-2 FT.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME W THEN NW AT 10 KT OR LESS TUESDAY MORNING AS A  
WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THEN SAGS  
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
TURNING WINDS TO THE N-NE (BUT STILL LESS THAN 10 KT). THE  
MEANDERING FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH  
ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SSW LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY  
THURSDAY. THIS SAME FRONT THEN DROPS BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON  
THURSDAY, WITH A LONGER DURATION OF NE-E WINDS LINGERING INTO  
FRIDAY, BUT WITH WINDS STILL NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT;  
SEAS 2-3 FT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
HOTTEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL CONTINUE TUE. RECORD HIGHS  
(AND RECORD HIGH MINS) WERE NOT SET TODAY (MON). NO RECORD HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED ON TUE (RECORD HIGH MINS MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME SPOTS).  
FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINS FOR TUE  
6/19 ARE LISTED BELOW:  
 
* SITE RECORD HIGH RECORD HIGH MIN  
 
* RIC: 103 (1944) 74 (2015)  
* ORF: 101 (1944) 77 (2017)  
* SBY: 96 (1993) 74 (2017)  
* ECG: 100 (1944) 78 (2017)  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032.  
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ079>083-  
087>090-092-093-096-097-513>516.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...LKB  
SHORT TERM...MPR  
LONG TERM...ESS  
AVIATION...LKB  
MARINE...JDM  
CLIMATE...AKQ  
 
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