309  
FXUS61 KAKQ 181929  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
329 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST  
TONIGHT, THEN DROPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON  
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TO TRIGGER  
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY HUMID AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE,  
SO A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LIMITING FACTORS FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ARE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. BEST  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA, WHERE BEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR TODAY. ELSEWHERE,  
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS, BUT WITH A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF TSTMS.  
 
MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD  
THE COAST THROUGH 06Z, BEFORE WEAKENING/MOVING OFFSHORE.  
LINGERING SHOWERS, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE IN MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONLY  
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AGAIN.  
 
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, AS  
SURFACE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.  
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA, WITH NW SECTIONS PROBABLY DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH MAX TEMPS LOWER TO  
MID 80S IN OUR DELMARVA REGION, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE,  
WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEWPTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, WITH  
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTHERN/SWRN  
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT 70-75.  
SURFACE WINDS TURN E/NE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHICH  
WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE IN MANY AREAS. ON THE LOWER MD  
EASTERN SHORE, TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S, IF THE NE  
FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH. HAVE CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND 80.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S  
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  
 
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY, AS STRONGER SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES IN THE MIDWEST,  
AND BEGINS MOVING NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN MONDAY, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING, QUICKLY MOVING  
EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS WERE DRAWN  
IN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...HOWEVER, A  
MORNING OR MID-DAY FROPA WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE  
OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES,  
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTION. DRIER WEATHER  
SETTLES IN THURSDAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS  
NC. 1024 MB HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THU PM THRU SUN  
NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY PORTION  
OF OUR AREA WITH MARGINAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN NC, WHERE RIDGING  
WILL BE WEAKER. MOST OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD FARE WELL LATE NEXT WEEK  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WEDNESDAY BUT COOL DOWN NOTICABLY,  
STARTING THURSDAY, INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO  
DROP INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S, HELPING TO MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE  
COMFORTABLE FOR MID AUGUST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-  
MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 DEGF ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH A FEW AREAS EXPERIEINCING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWER/TSTM  
ACTIVITY WILL BE RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO  
GROUPS IN THE 19Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME TO ALL TAFS BUT KSBY, WHERE  
TSTMS NOT AS LIKELY. SOME BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN TSTMS AS AIRMASS  
REMAINS QUITE MOIST. HOWEVER, WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND  
GUST POTENTIAL, AND HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.  
 
MAINLY VFR, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER MOST SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY  
MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FOG  
POTENTIAL FROM THE 12Z TAFS AT KRIC/KSBY, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD  
LIMIT EXTENT/DENSITY OF ANY FOG.  
 
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUN, WITH  
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY FROM KRIC  
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION MON, WITH A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC.  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY CONTINUE INTO TUE, AS THE FRONT  
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
NO HEADLINES NECESSARY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
RESIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER  
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW WINDS UP TO ~15 KT OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 KT  
OVER COASTAL WTRS WITH 2-3 FT SEAS. A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS INTO THE  
AREA DURING THE DAY SUN LEADING TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SW  
WINDS SHIFTING TO N/NE BY SUN NIGHT/MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TMG/WRS  
NEAR TERM...TMG/WRS  
SHORT TERM...TMG/WRS  
LONG TERM...BMS  
AVIATION...WRS  
MARINE...MAS  
 
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