698
FXUS61 KAKQ 040736
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
BEAUTIFUL SETTING FOR OUTDOOR HOLIDAY/FAMILY ACTIVITIES TODAY.
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF AS NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE RGN LATE...LEADING TO P/C SKIES
TWRDS EVE. HIGHS TDY GENERALLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90...XCPT
LOW/MID 80S OVER THE ERN SHORE.
MID LVLS START TO SATURATE LATE THIS EVE OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE
CWA AS INITIAL WEAK SHRTWV MOVES OVERHD.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS THIS EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/ISOL TSRAS DVLP.
SINCE PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL STILL EXIST IN THE BL...LOOK FOR
ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE SFC AT FIRST TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT/STRATIFORM. CURRENTLY THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AS AN
ASSCD STRONGER SHRTWV RIDE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE TN/OH
VLY ON SUN LEADING TO MUCH COOLER AND DAMP CONDITIONS (LOW-MID 70S)
TO OCCUR OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH HAVE CHCS OF
TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANY SVR WX WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WEAK WRLY FLOW AT MID LVLS.
BEST CHS FOR ANYTHING SVR WILL BE OVER THE FAR S (GNRLY NC ZONES).
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES SLOWLY NW/SE DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS WITH
A GENERAL SWATH OF A 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE PWATS WILL RISE
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN FAVORED LOW
LYING AREAS. FCST SNDGS SUPPORT IDEA THAT DRY AIR STARTS TO FILTER
INTO THE RGN FROM THE NW LATE EVE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR PRECIP TO
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT (--R/DZ). PRECIP LOOKS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT
NNW WHILE CONTINUE TILL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FAR S ON MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH TROF HAS MOVD OFFSHORE WITH ONLY SCT AC (ARND
10K FT) XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 12Z. VFR XPCTD THRU FCST PRD
WITH WNDS BCMG GNRLY LGHT AND VRBL (SPCLLY AT ORF) THRU DAYLIGHT
HRS. WITH SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHG FROM THE W...HAVE INTRODUCE ANTHR
BKN DECK OF AC (AOA 12K FT) AFTR 00Z SUN.
AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA. LTST
DATA SHOWING PSBL IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY WITH MVFR CNDTNS ACROSS
SERN TAF SITES. A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON
THROUGH WED.
MARINE
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRS SLIDES E ACROSS WATERS.
NW WNDS AOB 15 KTS THRU MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SW BY EVENING THEN S
TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG SYSTM FROM THE W.
LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS MID ATLNTC RGN SUN THEN OFF DELMARVA
COAST SUN NITE AND MON. SRLY FLOW CONTS AHEAD OF SYSTM SUN WITH WND
SPEEDS STILL BLO 20 KTS. FLOW BECOMES NRLY BEHIND SYSTM ONCE IT
EXITS OFF THE COAST SUN NITE. WILL KEEP WND SPEED BLO SCA LVLS FOR
NOW...BUT WUD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR NRLY SURGE BY 12Z MON. CALMER CNDTNS RETURN BY TUE AND WED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
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