121
FXUS61 KAKQ 090135
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION JUST NOW APPROACHING SW PIEDMONT
CNTYS...WITH GNLY NO PRECIP ( A FEW VERY ISO SHWRS) ACRS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVED RAINFALL AND
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER/STABILIZED (TEMPS IN LWR 70S).
THUS...THE SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONGER STORMS LIKELY REMAINING ACRS CNTRL NC INTO ERN NC SOUTH
OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POP FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS (60%) FOR MECKLENBURG CNTY AND SCTD (30-50%) FOR MUCH
OF THE SRN PIEDMNT CNTYS INTO INTERIOR NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. FARTHER EAST...WITH WEAKENING TRENDS SEEN IN
IR SATL EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO DIMINISH BEFORE RECHING METRO
RICHMOND SO HAVE 20% CHANCES FROM THERE ON EAST.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MCS IN OHIO AND IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER E OF THE APPALACHIANS. IR SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUD
TOPS WARMING A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR SO IT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING A BIT. STILL HAVE A CHNCE POP (30-40%) AFTER 07Z/3AM FOR
NW PIEDMNT ZONES. OVERNGT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EXPECT A REPEAT OF SORTS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS BY LATE WED AFTN/EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER ROUND OF QG FORCING ALONG WITH FVRBL
LLVL THERMODYNAMICS (PWATS ~ 2.0") WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF >50%
POPS...THOUGH IT WOULD APPEAR THE ACTIVITY WOULD BEGIN LATER TMRW
COMPARED TO TODAY.
ON THU...MID LVL WAVE FLATTENS OUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL/WEAKEN OVER
SOUTHERN VA/NC. HAVE AT LEAST 30-40% CHANCES FOR TSTMS THU
AFTN/EVENG FOR THE S/SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA (CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONT). OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...A MORE ANTICYCLONIC/DRIER
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT THE MOMENT THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN PER THE GFS/EURO. BOTH MDLS KEEP A STALLED
BNDRY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. AND
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP
TO THE UPR 80S/NEAR 90 ON SAT...AND THEN AS SW FLOW PICKS UP ON SUN
LOWER 90S FOR INTERIOR VA/NC...AND AROUND 90 FOR THE ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HV LEFT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MON AFTN/EVENING. APPEARS WE
MAY HAVE ANOTHER STALLED BNDRY TYPE SITUATION FOR TUE...BEFORE LOW
PRES FROM THE PLAINS APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO ERLY WED MORNG...COULD
SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT SBY ALTHOUGH
NOT IN ANY TAFS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LOWER THE FLIGHT CATEGORY. LWR CIGS/VSBYS FM
SCTD SHRAS AND TSRAS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER WED INTO THU NGT...AS A
COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW AND PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY
VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT AS HI PRES BLDS OVR THE REGION.
MARINE
UPDATED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND. WINDS OVER
THE SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. HAVE LEFT SCA FLAGS
UP FOR NRN 2 COASTAL WTR ZONES BASED ON 950 WINDS AND GOOD MIXING
AND CONTINUED 4 TO 5 FT SEAS PER WAVE WATCH. BUOY 09 CONTINUES TO
REPORT 4 FT. SCA FOR BAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
FOR WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BASED ON DECENT MIXING, WHERE AGAIN GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED.
GOING TO BE A TRICKY MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS...AS SCA
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO COME DOWN WED MORN AS WINDS/SEAS
DROP BLW CRITERIA...BUT MAY BE PUT BACK IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN WHEN A
COLD FRNT APPROACHES THE REGION WED AFTN. ALREADY HAVE MARGINAL SCA
CRITERIA IN GRIDS FOR WEDN AFTN/NIGHT...IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF
TAKING DOWN CURRENT HEADLINES AND POSSIBLY PUTTING UP NEW ONES IF
TRENDS CONTINUE FOR THIS NEXT FROPA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
650-652.
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/LKB
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...ALS/JAB
MARINE...ALS/SMF
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