115
FXUS61 KAKQ 241716
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MARKED WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE
WEST, LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. TO THE NORTH,
A STRONGER LOW WAS ANALYZED CROSSING SE QUEBEC, WITH ITS COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE MID-
MISSOURI VALLEY. ALOFT, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW
FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED DIVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS BUILDING EAST FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS PER LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, BEFORE BRIEFLY STALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING THE AREA THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
SPEAK OF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PWS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, OWING TO
FLOW TURNING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS, EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, NOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTH, AND LATE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT TO LOW- END CHANCE POP AFTER 22Z (6P-8P) FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO AS THE FRONT EXITS, BUT OTHERWISE DRYING
OUT TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT UPPER 60S FOR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THE SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS EVENING. CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS COOL 1028+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE STILL SEEMS ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
N/NW ZONES WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S FAR NW (US-15
CORRIDOR), WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50F ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD.
- MAINLY DRY, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S (COOLEST ALONG THE COAST THU DUE TO
MODEST ONSHORE FLOW). CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THU NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA FROM
THE PIEDMONT TO E-CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. A BIT
MILDER FRI NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES (BUT REMAINS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL) COURTESY OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARKED WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AHEAD OF AND WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
EXPANDING TO THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND SETTLES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UPWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD; FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT (HIGHS IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S
EASTERN SHORE), TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON (LOW-MID 80S INLAND,
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST) AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BEFORE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON/TUE NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT. AREAS FROM FVX-RIC-SBY
NORTHWARD ARE SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM WITH SCT060
CUMULUS DEVELOPING, WITH SE LOCATIONS STILL SOCKED IN WITH
SCT/BKN070-100 CIGS. A BAND OF-SHRA REMAINS ALONG THE VA/NC LINE,
STRETCHING FROM ORF/PHF BACK TO GSO. THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 22Z AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS RIC/PHF/ORF BETWEEN
22Z-04Z, THOUGH FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. RAIN CHANCES END
AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EARLY TODAY.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE UPPER RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND, 1 PM FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND CHES BAY, AND 7 PM
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS (DUE TO LINGERING SEAS). WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE SW 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY, BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA THU INTO FRI. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT (5-10 KT) THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
N THEN NE 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW AND
THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS TO LINGER
THROUGH FRI BEFORE BECOMING E FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU NIGHT AND LINGER AROUND 13-17 KT THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SCAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE SURGE TONIGHT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR
THE UPPER RIVERS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SCA
WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SE 10-15 KT SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS EVENING BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE S COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 855 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH NUISANCE
TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE AT SMITHFIELD, VA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMM
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