645  
FXUS61 KAKQ 241207  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
707 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA  
THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONT SLOWLY DROPS INTO NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS  
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS NORTH  
CAROLINA MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW- LEVELS, FOG IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS  
THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE FOR VSBYS AOB 1/4 MI WILL BE OVER SE  
AREAS AND THE LWR EASTERN SHORE WHERE DEWPTS ARE HIGHER. THE FOG  
SHOULD END OVER MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL  
BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE  
IN THE DAY, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN WAA AND DEEP MOISTURE, -RA  
IS PSBL OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA. POPS RANGE FROM NEAR 30% AT  
RIC/SBY TO 60% FARTHEST NW AREAS. TEMP FORECAST AGAIN TRICKY  
TODAY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY  
AND UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR NORTH THE CLEARING MAKES IT. FOR  
NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE TO  
THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. REMAINING MILD WITH  
LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AGAIN  
OVER NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT  
SHOULD BE SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE  
RIDGE, SO HAVE OPTED FOR AN EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY WARM  
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH  
LOW/MID 70S OVER THE ERN SHORE, AND LOCALLY MID/UPPER 60S FOR  
THE MD BEACHES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD HIGHS. THE  
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIFTS WELL N OF THE AREA, SO POPS AT  
THIS TIME ARE ONLY 30-50% AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES  
OVER NC MONDAY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT  
ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD  
OF LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN VA AND NE NC. COOLER BEHIND  
THE FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE  
50S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, BUT THESE  
VALUES COULD FALL DURING THE DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING SHWRS ALONG  
THE SE COAST MON EVE. PT CLDY/COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID  
40S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUE NITE AND  
WED. DRY THRU 18Z WED WITH ISLTD SHWRS PSBL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT  
WED AFTRN AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SW. HIGHS TUE MID 50S-LWR  
60S. LOWS TUE NITE 40-45. HIGHS WED UPR 50S-MID 60S.  
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE INTO THE GT LAKES REGION MID WEEK WITH  
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WED  
NITE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT THURS. MODELS SHOW A DECENT  
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE SYSTM FROM THE SW SO WILL CARRY LIKELY  
POPS (SHWRS) FOR BOTH PERIODS. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS  
THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. LOWS WED NITE MID 40S-LWR 50S. HIGHS THU UPR 50S-  
UPR60S. CHC POPS THU NITE AS UPR LEVEL SYSTM IS SLOW TO TRACK  
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 
CYCLONIC FLOW FRI WILL USHER IN A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS BUT  
SHWRS LINGER ACROSS THE ERN SHORE AS THE UPR LEVEL SYSTM SLOWLY  
PULLS OFFSHORE. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH A WARM  
FRONT STILL SITUATED OVER THE FA. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN  
VSBYS, BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH MID/LATE  
MORNING, AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN NEAR SBY. GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS  
BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR  
SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AT SBY.  
 
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AND VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT S WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WARM/MOIST AIR OVER THE  
COLDER WATERS CONTINUING TO LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG.  
MAINTAINING DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE ADDED REMAINING UPPER  
JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS THROUGH 10 AM FOR ALL ZONES (THIS  
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FOG IS  
EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE).  
 
OTHERWISE, OFFSHORE HIGH AND SSW WINDS DOMINATE TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH  
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT (WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE E IN THESE AREAS). FRONT LIFTS BACK N  
OVERNIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH A BREEZY SW FLOW ON SUNDAY. EXPECT  
THE WARM AIRMASS OVER COLD WATER INVERSION TO KEEP MIXING  
LIMITED, BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE  
DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED  
AS NEEDED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT  
WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE N-NE FOR MON. NO REAL CAA SURGES  
NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT, SO KEPT WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT  
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A FEW HRS WORTH OF ELEVATED WINDS EARLY  
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE AS SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY,  
RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED FOR TODAY/SAT 2/24. FOR SUN 2/25, BOTH  
RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINS ARE LISTED:  
 
* RECORD HIGHS........RECORD HIGHS/REC HIGH MINS  
* SITE: SAT 2/24......SUN 2/25  
 
* RIC: 82 (1985).....83 (1930)...54 (1930)  
* ORF: 82 (2012).....81 (2017)...59 (1930)  
* SBY: 77 (2012).....80 (1930)...52 (1930)  
* ECG: 79 (1985).....78 (2017)...54 (1985)  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-  
650-652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAS  
NEAR TERM...MAS  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS  
LONG TERM...AJB/MPR  
AVIATION...AJB/MAS  
MARINE...LKB  
CLIMATE...  
 
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