925  
FXUS61 KAKQ 230042  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
842 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST  
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES  
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 830 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
LATEST MSAS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA  
PENINSULA, EXTENDING BACK NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH  
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE ALA/MISS LINE. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF  
MOISTURE GETTING FUNNELED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH THE  
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DISSIPATING AS IT  
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR TO THE NE. MODELS KEEP THE PCPN WELL  
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA TONIGHT AND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF  
MONDAY. GIVEN THE LATEST SAT LOOP, EXPECT A PT TO MSTLY CLDY  
NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT 35-40 ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN  
SHORE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUALLY DETERIORATING  
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN  
STREAM LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
WITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW SLIDING E-NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, REACHING A POSITION  
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE LOCAL AREA ON  
THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  
 
MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CHC POPS SW (FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT  
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z) OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. OTW, BECOMING CLOUDY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR UPR 50S AT THE BEACHES. RAIN  
OVERSPREADS THE FA MON NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE  
WHERE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 12Z TUE MORNING TO REACH. POPS RAMP UP  
TO CATEGORICAL SOUTH OF I64 MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WITH  
HIGH END CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH. LOWS MON NIGHT MID 40S  
NW TO MID 50S SE. TUE LOOKS BREEZY AND WET, COURTESY OF STRONG  
(ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKENING) ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER FORCING.  
STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENT TOTAL QPF ~1.5-2" INLAND, TAPERING TO ~1  
FAR NE SECTIONS. HIGHS TUE UPR 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.  
 
DRIER, ALBEIT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY  
WARMER WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN LIKELY. STILL ENOUGH REMNANT LOW  
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC  
SHOWER WORDING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH A FEW  
MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM GEORGIA TO ERN  
NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY-FRIDAY AM. 22/12Z GFS HAS 999MB SFC  
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE VA AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF  
QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE MOST RECENT 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND 150 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST  
WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF QPF CONFINED TO SE VA/NE NC.  
KEPT POPS BETWEEN 25-35% WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CWA GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE/LOW 70S ELSEWHERE THU-FRI.  
 
A MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK OVER  
THE NORTHEASTERN US FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE  
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  
THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  
THEREFORE, HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHC/CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY  
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SATURDAY  
WARMING TO AROUND 70 ON SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN TO OVC HIGH AND MID  
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPRCHG FROM THE SW. SE  
WINDS AOB 10 KTS. CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE RAIN ARRIVES FROM THE SW.  
 
OUTLOOK:  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT AS A  
LARGE AREA OF RAIN APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.  
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH ~12Z WED BEFORE CONDITIONS  
SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.  
 
EAST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-20 KT (GUSTS TO ~25 KT) AT  
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG DURING TUE AND LAST THROUGH 00Z WED. SLIGHTLY  
LOWER WINDS (E AT 10-15 KT) EXPECTED AT RIC DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME. WINDS DECREASE AFTER 00Z WED AND TURN TO THE SW BY  
WED AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A SE WIND OF 5-15. WAVES/SEAS 1-  
2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AN E WIND IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH 10-15KT BY MONDAY, AND THEN 15-25KT BY  
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO  
5-9FT, WITH 4-5FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (2-4FT ELSEWHERE IN  
THE BAY). SCAS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BROAD  
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY WITH SSW  
WINDS 5-15KT BECOMING NW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WED NIGHT INTO THURS  
MORNING. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE REGION  
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...MPR  
SHORT TERM...MAM  
LONG TERM...ERI  
AVIATION...MPR  
MARINE...JDM  
 
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