896
FXUS61 KLWX 090211
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEAST...PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT...PUTTING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN SLY
RETURN FLOW. DESPITE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TNGT...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH LLVL THERMAL INVERSION...LOW TEMPS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE HIGHER OVR THE RIDGE TOPS THAN IN LOCATIONS IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
ANOTHER DAY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GREATER SLY FLOW WITH HIGH
POSITION TO ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN
SUNDAY'S HIGH DUE TO CI DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD THRU THE MIDWEST/MS VLY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE HIGH
CLOUDS NOT HAVE THAT GREAT OF AN EFFECT...HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY COULD OCCUR...15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...APPROACHING RECORDS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW/.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDS ALSO BRING THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CWFA FOR THE MID WEEK.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED THE POPS UPWARDS FROM 20 PERCENT TO
ALMOST 50 PERCENT IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW
CENTER TRACK...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR
THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS THRU MON AS HIPRES REMAINS OVER THE
TERMINALS.
SUB VFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BE LGT THRU TNGT WITH HIPRS OVRHD. FLOW WILL BECOME SLY
MON 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN MD
CHSPK BAY IN THE LATE AFTN.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA AFFECT THE SE US AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE REMNANT LOW IS CLOSEST TO THE AREA.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW CENTER AFFECTS THE EAST COAST.
CLIMATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TOMORROW. IN FACT...THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 9 SINCE 1994 /WHEN LOCAL RECORDS
WERE SET/ IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT BREAK THOSE RECORDS. BELOW ARE THE RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT SELECTED AREA CLIMATE SITES...
SITE 09/11 YEAR
BWI......78......1994
DCA......79......1994
IAD......78......1994
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BAJ
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