686
FXUS61 KPHI 080757
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST, AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF FROST
TO SCRAPE OFF. TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN 40S MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT'S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA'S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT JUST WELL
TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE GET
INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
I'M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
MARINE
WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING
AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD
GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
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