398  
FXUS61 KPHI 230348  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1148 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS  
EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND CREST OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.  
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY, WHILE A BACKDOOR  
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR JUST  
TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EASTWARD AS WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST, BUT WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS  
BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN  
TEMPS POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST.  
 
WE COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH WILL PASS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LEADING TO LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUNNY  
CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL AS THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER  
THE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A  
WARM FRONT WILL INCH TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST CAUSING CLOUDS  
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. RAINS AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL  
ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR N/W FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE A  
BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL TIME, AND THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE  
IN P-TYPE WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER FAVORING MORE RAIN OVER MIXED.  
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ATTM.  
OTHER THAN THAT, MOSTLY RAIN N/W WITH LOW LIKELY POPS BY AFTERNOON  
OVER THE SRN POCONOS. LIMITED CLOUDS/PRECIP S/E WITH TEMPERATURES  
NEAR 60 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A SPLIT WITH SAT BEING THE BETTER WEATHER  
DAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING RATHER WET. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE  
NORTH SAT WITH ONLY SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.  
THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG  
IT AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS IN  
MOST AREAS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH 60S  
NORTH AND LOW 70S SOUTH/EAST. READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY.  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SFC FRONT  
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY  
AD TUESDAY WITH THIS FCST. THE NORTH/WEST COUNTIES WILL BE FAVORED  
FOR THE BETTER CHCS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS.  
 
NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT WHERE WINDS ARE STILL 15-20 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THU NIGHT...IN GENERAL VFR. LOW CLOUDS PSBL FAR NW LATE.  
FRI...VFR MOST AREAS BUT RESTRICTIONS PSBL WITH RAIN AND A  
CHANCE FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FAR N/W FRI MORNING.  
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...MOSTLY VFR.  
SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS FOR CIG AND VSBY  
PSBL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA CONDITIONS ON S DE BAY, DE OCEAN WATERS, AND NJ OCEAN WATERS  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING  
SPRAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY  
AS BY THE TIME THE AIR TEMPERATURE GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT  
FREEZING SPRAY, WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
FRI-FRI NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN. SUB-SCA ON  
DEL. BAY. SHOWERS MOSTLY NORTH.  
SAT-SAT NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.  
SUN-MON...SCA EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. SUB- SCA ON DEL BAY. SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ONE OR 2 OF THE FOLLOWING ARE VULNERABLE RECORD EQUALING LOWS  
THURSDAY MORNING MARCH 23, PRIMARILY ABE. OTHERS ARE LISTED FOR  
REFERENCE  
 
ACY-13 1875  
 
PHL-14 1885, 1875  
 
ILG-14 1934  
 
ABE-13 1934  
 
TTN-13 1934  
 
GED-16 1959  
 
RDG-14 1906  
 
MPO- MINUS 8 1912  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-454-  
455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/O'HARA  
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON/MPS  
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON  
LONG TERM...O'HARA  
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/O'HARA  
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/O'HARA  
CLIMATE...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab DE Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page