453  
FXUS61 KCAR 150212  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
912 PM EST THU DEC 14 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW  
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
9:00 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, SURFACE GRADIENT  
ISN'T ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THAT QUICKLY. MIN  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS  
WITH A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS, EXPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS. A  
FEW FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL  
OCCUR OVER THE WATERS.  
 
6:30 PM UPDATE...NOT TOO MANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS  
EVENING. JUST TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE AND TRIMMED  
BACKED THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES TO THE  
NORTHWOODS AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. BESIDES THAT RAISED THE WAVES UP  
ON THE OCEANS BASED ON CURRENT BOUY DATA. OVERALL COLD NIGHT,  
LAKES SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO FREEZE OVER WITH THE VERY COLD  
AIRMASS IN PLACE.  
 
A LARGE, DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A VERY COLD WESTERN  
FLOW TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BREEZE  
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE PARTIAL  
CLOUDINESS. A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE  
LOW IN ADDITION TO SOME MOISTURE GETTING PICKED UP FROM THE ST.  
LAWRENCE SEAWAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH  
TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH  
PRESSURE NEARBY TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FRIDAY TO BEGIN MOSTLY  
SUNNY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY  
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIPRES BUILDS BRIEFLY OVR CWA ON FRI NIGHT AT THE START OF THE PD.  
THIS WL BE ENUF TO HELP WINDS GO CALM IN THE VALLEYS BUT WITH CLDS  
INCREASING AHD OF UPR LVL WV DROPPING THRU SRN CANADA MIN TEMPS WL  
LKLY ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE  
ST. JOHN VLY. INVERTED TROF FM OCEAN STORM PROGGED TO EXTEND INTO  
COASTAL ZONES THRU SAT MRNG IN THE FORM OF A NORLUN TROF AS LOW FROM  
THE GREAT LKS FILLS WITH HIPRES TO THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS WL SLOWLY  
COME TO AN END ACRS COASTAL ZONES BY SAT AFTN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD  
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUING ACRS THE NORTHWEST IN  
OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  
 
TROF WL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SAT NIGHT WITH VRY LITTLE  
IN THE WAY OF PCPN EXPECTED THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DRY NW FLOW  
WL CONTINUE AS HIPRES BUILD IN FM CANADA WITH COLD AIR FILTERING  
SOUTH FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WL BE PRESENT SUN NIGHT WITH MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE  
INDICATING WK WV ROTATING THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS  
OVR ALL BUT COASTAL ZONES. THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE BY TUE  
AFTN WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH BLYR CAN WARM AHD OF SYSTEM.  
GFS INDICATES MOST OF THE AREA WL SEE RAIN LATE TUE NIGHT WHILE EC  
AND CMC INDICATE A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SLEET ALONG THE COAST ON TUE  
EVNG BFR SWITCHING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE. 12Z GFS INDICATES 990MB  
SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z WED WHICH DRAWS IN MUCH WARMER  
AIR ALOFT WHILE EC AND CMC ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH SFC TROF. RMNDR OF  
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE A RETURN TO DRY AND COLD TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH  
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN  
FLURRIES OVER THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/LOCALIZED  
IFR FRI NIGHT IN SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY  
BRING SNOW SHOWERS. VFR EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED LOWER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE NORTH IN  
OCNL LOW STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT  
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.  
 
SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRI  
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A  
SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-003.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUMONT  
SHORT TERM...FARRAR  
LONG TERM...FARRAR  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUMONT/FARRAR  
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUMONT/FARRAR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ME Page Main Text Page