649  
FXUS61 KCAR 261926  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
326 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH MID WEEK.  
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE MAY APPROACH LATE THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING W/THE LOSS OF  
DIURNAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AS WELL. A COOLER AIRMASS  
IN PLACE COUPLED W/THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A  
COOL NIGHT COMING UP. WE ARE TALKING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO  
THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME SITES BACK  
ACROSS THE CROWN SEEING UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE  
FOR THE LOW LYING SITES. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SITES WILL SEE  
50-55. DECIDED ON SOME PATCHY FOG BY EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING(09-12Z) AS BLYR WINDS TURN TO THE SE.  
 
TUESDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGING DAY AS THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE  
IN INCLUDING THE NAM/GEM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
CONVECTION. ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY  
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE LIFTS N. ALOFT, COLD TEMPS  
AND A DECENT JET STREAK OF 40 KTS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE.  
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE  
REGION WHICH COULD DAMPEN STRONG CONVECTION. THE 12Z RUN OF THE  
NAM AND GFS SHOW ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION. CAPE OF 500-700 JOULES W/SHEAR OF 30 KTS IN THE  
0-6KM LAYER IS NOTED. PLUS, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
ALLOWING FOR UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. V-NOTCH IN THE LLVLS FAVORABLE  
FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IF STORMS CAN BUILD. GIVEN ALL THIS AND  
PER COLLABORATION W/GYX AND BTV, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING  
TO THE FORECAST FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW CELLS REACH NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. AGAIN,  
THIS ALL HINGES ON DURATION OF SUFFICIENT HEATING. ATTM, SPC HAS  
THE REGION IN A GENERAL RISK BUT THEY DO MENTION THE THREAT FOR  
SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD POOL  
ALOFT. ANOTHER THREAT TO CONSIDER IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL AS STORMS WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG A SSW DIRECTION  
W/SOME TRAINING OF CELLS. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE CENTRAL AND  
DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WILL BRING  
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. BY MIDNIGHT, THE  
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA AS SKIES REMAIN  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CAPES  
ARE MODEST TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY UP TO 500 J/KG ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE MAY BE IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH  
HEATING OCCURS EACH DAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY  
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LEADING UP TO TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IN  
THE FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY BRINGING  
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM  
BRINGING A WELL ORGANIZED RAINSTORM IN LATE THURSDAY BUT THE GFS  
JUST BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE NEW SYSTEM  
APPROACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND  
WARM, HUMID AIR IS PULLED NORTH OVER RELATIVELY COOLER AIR ACROSS  
OUR AREA. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS  
AND MAYBE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ON  
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW  
MAY APPROACH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN,  
POSSIBLY HEAVY IN SOME AREAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER  
THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK  
WITH AN ACTIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW AND SHORTWAVES SLIDING IN FROM THE  
WEST. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT LONGWAVE RIDGING COULD EVENTUALLY  
PUSH OUR WAY VERY LATE NEXT WEEK OR EARLY THE WEEK AFTERNOON  
BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF WARMER, LESS RAINY WEATHER AS WE APPROACH  
THE SECOND WEEK IN JULY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR W/A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS FOR  
PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR BRIEFLY.  
 
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY  
TUESDAY NIGHT, IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES  
WEDNESDAY AS MORE CLOUDS AND VARIABLE LOW CLOUDINESS PUSH  
ACROSS. MAINLY VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY  
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR LATE IN THE DAY IN  
RAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM. SSW WINDS TO PICK UP  
LATER TUESDAY AT 10-15 KTS W/SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 FT ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE OUTER ZONES.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA TUESDAY  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES OVER  
THE WATER AS HUMID AIR LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HEWITT  
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER  
LONG TERM...BLOOMER  
AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER  
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER  
 
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