875  
FXUS61 KCAR 171019  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
619 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS  
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH ON  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
615 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS ARE  
SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY AT THIS HOUR,  
AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME  
LIGHT RETURNS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, BUT  
PRECIP IS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. CAN'T RULE OUT A  
FEW SPRINKLES IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, BUT IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST HAS THIS ALL COVERED SO  
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY, TEMPS, AND WINDS TO INCORPORATE  
THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE DATA.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DRY AND BREEZY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE  
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY  
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD. CLOUDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO FAR NORTHERN  
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, THINNING OUT AS THEY DO SO. AS SUCH, EXPECT PARTLY TO  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND EAST, WHILE SOUTHEASTERN/COASTAL  
AREAS SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A  
DECENT JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY; GUSTS  
AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN  
THE NORTH WOODS AND MUCH OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY TO THE UPPER 70S  
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF  
THE REGION WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE  
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, THOUGH SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE  
SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE  
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO JAMES BAY BY 12Z SAT. FRI WILL START DRY  
WITH SUNSHINE AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
DURING THE DAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS  
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT.  
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH  
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING THE STRATUS AND ALSO LIKELY SOME FOG  
TOO. FRI NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND SOME SHOWERS. A  
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION SAT MAKING FOR A  
CLOUDY DAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BREAK  
A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES  
PLACE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP  
LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THE CHANCE OF AN EVENING THUNDERSTORM. SOMEWHAT DRIER/LESS  
HUMID AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SUN, BUT WITH AN  
UPPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY IT WILL LIKELY LEAD  
TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE  
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRAY SHOWER. IT WILL LIKELY BE AT  
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH DRY  
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP  
TUE BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.  
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE  
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PATCHY FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.  
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS WED AS THE  
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE  
NORTHERN SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH CEILINGS HOVERING  
3000-4000 FT. AS SUCH, OCCASIONAL MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 14Z-23Z  
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT FVE AND CAR.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR FRI WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR FRI NIGHT IN  
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH SHOWERS. IFR LIKELY TO  
PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR BY SAT AFTERNOON AT  
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT LOW IFR MAY PERSIST ALL DAY AT THE  
DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT, BUT  
MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITONS SHOULD IMPROVE  
TO PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED ON MON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN  
EFFECT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY DUE TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FROM  
HURRICANE GERT. SEAS HAVE FINALLY COME UP EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4-6 FT INTO THIS EVENING. NW WINDS WILL  
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN  
EXCESS OF 20 KT POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT AS GERT'S INFLUENCE WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
THE WATERS.  
 
SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL BUILD LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS  
MIGHT BE REQUIRED, ESPECIALLY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 13 SECONDS WILL AFFECT THE DOWNEAST  
COAST OF MAINE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.  
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE  
LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS BEING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GERT.  
HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND  
LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS  
SHORT TERM...CB  
LONG TERM...CB  
AVIATION...HASTINGS/CB  
MARINE...HASTINGS/CB  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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