849
FXUS61 KCAR 072022
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT THEN
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDS FROM LOW PRES JUST N OF THE GRT LAKES
SEWRD ACROSS NYS AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... CLDS ASSOCIATED W/
THIS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING NRN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING
MUCH OF OUR FA. A FEW LGT RTRNS NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS WRN/NWRN
MAINE BUT MUCH OF THIS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE SFC W/ VRY DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER ATMOS AS EVIDENCED BY TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NRN MAINE. XPCT THIS WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVE THEN COULD SEE THE CLD COVER BRIEFLY THIN OUT/CLR BEFORE CLDS W/
THE FOLLOWING WEAK COLD FRONT OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TNGT.
THIS RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ERLY SUNDAY W
AND BE E OF THE FA BY NOON. WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE LOW SLGT CHC
POPS W/ THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR N LATE TDY/THIS EVE W/ LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE N LATER TNGT INTO ERLY SUN AHEAD OF AND W/ THE
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. XPCT CLRG SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDS ON
SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE AIRMASS TO FOLLOW IS RATHER MILD
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW VS TDY... W/ THE
LACK OF STRONG CAA TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...NOT XPCTG
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE USUAL SC CLDS ACROSS THE N WE TYPICALLY SEE
FOLLOWING STRONGER COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD AND CREST OVER THE STATE MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
FOR SKY...POP AND QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH SREF
FOR POP. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP. FOR WIND
WILL USE GMOS. THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS APPEAR
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS ALL BY
ITS SELF FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A
LOW OVR ERN ME/WRN NB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTEND BACK TO THE SE THROUGH CAPE COD. THE FRONT MVS THROUGH AND
THE LOW MVS E BY 12Z AND THE CWA IS IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS...HAS THE SAME LOW OVR CNTRL ME WITH A 2NDRY LOW
ON THE COLD FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK. A 3RD LOW WHICH WOULD BE
THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IDA OVR THE FL PANHANDLE. BY 12Z THE
REMNANTS OF IDA MVS THE THE ERN SEABOARD ALONG NJ DEEPENS AS IT
GETS INTO THE GULF STREAM WATERS. BY 00Z THURS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
DEEPEN TO A MAJOR LOW IN THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATER EAST OF CAPE
COD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
DRIFTING TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36HRS 12Z ON FRI. AT THIS POINT
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AGREE A HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL BE BUILT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS AGREEMENT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED BY 00Z SAT THE GEM/ECMWF MV A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH ME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH VARIBILITY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT I
DECIDED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. LOADED THE HPC
GUIDANCE FOR WED THROUGH FRI. LOADED GMOS GUIDANCE FOR FRI
THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. FOR SEAS USED NAWAVE10 FROM PREVIOUS
RUN. BASED ON VARIBILITY OF THE MODELS FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS RUN
WAS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU SUN THO COULD SEE CONDS LOWER
TO LOW VFR SUN AM ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES AHEAD OF AND W/ A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TO KEEP CONDS JUST BLO SCA TNGT
AND ERLY SUN BUT SECONDS THOUGHTS WON OUT... FEEL MINIMAL SCA IS
JUSTIFIED FROM LATE EVE THRU MID AM SUN IN STRENGTHENING SW LOW-
LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
AM.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS.
FOR WAVES WILL USE WNA/4. ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR WAVE MODEL WILL BE TO
KEEP MINIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AT 2 FEET DUE TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
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