750
FXUS61 KCAR 171652
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO MOSTLY DOWNEAST COASTAL AREAS OF
MAINE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES EAST...ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
MORE GENERAL RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED AND COOL ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS EVENING. GFS
ODD MODEL OUT BY MOVING RAIN INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST TODAY WHERE
NAM, CAR WRF AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY USED THE CAR WRF MODEL FOR GUIDANCE AND WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY AND CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR QPF
WITH COASTAL SECTIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR TENTHS OF RAIN
TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD, EXPECT JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTPORT AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REGION THE REMINDER OF THE EVENING.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TIMING OF THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RNFL OF THIS PTN OF THE FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE SLIPPED TO SUN NGT TO MON...WITH MODELS INDICATING
A WEAK S/WV RIDGE BETWEEN THE EXITING MARITIMES LOW AND THE UPPER
LVL LOW APCHG FROM ERN ONT PROV. AS THIS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES E
THRU QB PROV...A WEAK SECONDARY LOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVR SRN ME
SUN NGT...HELPING TO DRAW SOME LLVL ATLC MOISTURE...AND MORE
GENERAL RNFL INTO OUR FA. DUE TO LOW CLD CVR AND RNFL...HI TEMPS
MON SHOULD BE SIG COOLER THAN SUN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING
WITH ANY PARTICULAR S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER
LOW...IT WAS DEEMED NOT TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE
SHORT RANGE ATTM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONCE THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING RNFL MOVES N OF THE
FA BY MON EVE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WILL CONT TO BRING RN
AND SHWRS TO THE FA MON NGT THRU THE MID WEEK...WITH BREAKS ATTMS.
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LOW...ANY DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND SELF DESTRUCTIVE DUE TO STEEP 1000-500 MB LAPSE
RATES...SUSBSEQUENTLY DAYTIME HI TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LOW LIKELY RANGE...ARE
MSLY XPCTD ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA...BASED ON THE PROGGED PSN OF
THE UPPER LOW TO MAINLY BE ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA MON NGT INTO
TUE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SUN WILL LOWER TO MVRF/IFR CLGS/VSBYS SUN NGT THRU
MON AND WILL LIKELY NOT RECOVER ABV MVFR TUE AND WED ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: ISSUED SCA FOR ANZ050-51 BASED ON LATEST OBS.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
ATTM...ALTHOUGH WV HTS COULD COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY
MIDWEEK. WENT WITH A 3 TO 1 BLEND OF THE NEW 00Z WNW WW3 WV HT
GUIDANCE AND PRIOR FCST AS WELL WITH A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40/GFS
GRIDDED MOS WIND GUIDANCE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...DUDA/FOSTER/VJN
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