248
FXUS61 KCAR 090801
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
301 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OPTD TO END THE WINT WX ADV FOR FZDZ ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA ERLY...
WITH NO RESTRICTIONS OF VSBYS AT ASOS SITES AND NO ADDITIONAL
REPORTS. THIS LEAVES SCT SN SHWRS MSLY FOR NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE
FA THIS MORN...XPCTD TO DIMINISH TO SCT FLURRIES BY AFT. ELSEWHERE
ANY ERLY MORN FLURRIES SHOULD END WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG BY
AFT AS WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF OVR THE FA MOVES E THRU THE
MARITIMES. WE XPCT THE CLRG LINE TO WORK INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA
BY EVE WITH THE REGION XPCTD TO HAVE MCLR SKIES FROM LATE EVE TIL
DAYBREAK WED AS A S/WV RDG APCHS THE FA.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL CONT ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MANY AREAS XPCTD TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WILL STILL BE ON
THE BRISK SIDE AVGNG 10 TO 20 MPH MOST PLACES. WITH CLRG SKIES...
DRIER AIR AND DIMINISHING WINDS XPCTD OVRNGT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
OFF SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM HI TEMPS THIS AFT...BUT THE RESULTANT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF SEASON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD IS INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND TAKING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. FOR POPS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
SREF. THIS GIVES POP VALUES A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
LOOKS AT THIS POINT THAT SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MISS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST. FOR SKY
COVER AND QPF WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. THE GMOS WAS
USED FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM INTERN RESULTS IN THE SURFACE
LOW RETRO-GRADING TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST BY MID
WEEK...HOWEVER A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION RESULTING
IN CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE
GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS. WILL
ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GUST GRIDS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL SITES XCPT FOR MVFR CLGS...AND BRIEFLY
ATTMS...MVFR VSBYS WITH LOW SC CLD DECK AND ANY REMAINING SN SHWRS
FOR NRN TAF SITES THIS MORN.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR WINDS ALL MZS AND FOR MARGINAL
SEAS FOR OUTER MZS TIL 16Z...AFTWRDS WHERE BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE
XPCTD TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. NO HDLN ANTICIPATED OVRNGT
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS CONTG TO DIMINISH. USED A BLEND OF NAM12
AND GFS40 FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 FOR WV HTS WHICH
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WV HTS ERLY THIS MORN.
SHORT TERM: WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 TO INITIALIZE
OUT TO 00Z FRIDAY THEN WILL TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS. WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS ABOVE MODEL BLEND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FEET TO
BETTER FIT FORECAST WINDS. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECT HIGHEST
WAVES IN ANZ051 DUE TO LONGER FETCH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NEED TO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE WAVE
MODEL TO BETTER FIT THE GMOS WINDS. PORTION OF SOUTHEAST FETCH
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DIRECTED AT LOCAL WATERS IS OF SHORT
DURATION. WAVE MODEL SPECTRAL SHOWS INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE
ARRIVING FRIDAY. WHEN CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ENDS LATER THIS MORNING
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER GALE WATCH AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page