332  
FXUS61 KCAR 290515  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
115 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE  
AREA SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
120 AM UPDATE...  
SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD IS SPREADING PCPN INTO COASTAL  
ZONES AT THIS HOUR. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HV ALL BUT EXITED ERN  
ZONES ATTM AND HV UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH AREAS. EXPECT  
RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SLEET AS  
COLDER AIR GETS PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING  
TO SNOW BY MRNG. LATEST HRRR AND RAP HV FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON  
PCPN BUT MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THE OVRNGT AND WL  
KEEP AN EYE ON MVMNT FOR NEXT UPDATE. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
H5 TROF ACROSS QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE  
TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE  
ENERGY EJECTING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION  
THIS EVENING WHILE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE PASSES TO SOUTH  
OF THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION  
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION SKIRTS THE DOWNEAST COAST A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT.  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A BIT OF  
SLEET, BEFORE ENDING IN THE FORM OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT. THERE  
COULD BE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST  
JOHN VALLEY. ACROSS DOWNEAST, EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SKIES  
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE BELOW H7. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT AFTERNOON  
READINGS WITH UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.  
 
H5 TROF CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING  
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN H8 AND H9 LEVEL SO WILL STILL BE  
LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA BUT  
CERTAINLY MAY SEE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL  
COULDN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS THE UPPER TROF  
CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A GOOD 5  
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SCT SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN PTNS OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH WED NGT INTO THU AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES E OF  
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK OUT OF THE NNW DURG THESE  
PDS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS MSLY NON-ARCTIC, SO  
TEMPS...SPCLY HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES,  
SPCLY BY FRI, WHEN MSLY SUNNY SKIES AND LGTR WINDS ARE XPCTD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LONGER RANGE MODELS TDY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME  
IMPACT WITH OVRNGT AND MRNG SNFL FOR MSLY CNTRL AND SPCLY  
DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT AND ONLY A  
GRAZING IMPACT TO NRN PTNS OF THE REGION AS LOW PRES FROM THE  
MID ATLC STATES MOVES E TO WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA. MAX POPS WERE  
CONSTRUCTED IN THIS MANNER WIL LIKELY POPS OVR SW PTNS OF THE  
REGION TO MID CHC POPS OVR THE FAR N AND NE. A LITTLE TO ERLY TO  
SPECULATE ABOUT SN AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM, BUT A CONSENSUS  
TOTAL QPF WITH THIS EVENT WOULD NOT LIKELY EXCEED WNTR WX ADV  
THRESHOLDS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS, AND THAT'S IF THE EVENT WERE ALL  
SN WITH DECENT LIQ TO SN RATIOS. STEADY SN/RN WILL TAPER TO SCT  
RN/SN SHWRS SAT AFTN AND EVE, CONTG AS ISOLD TO SCT NGT/ERLY  
MORN SN SHWRS AND LATE MORN TO AFTN RN/SN SHWRS ON SUN AS AN  
UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. MON AND TUE ATTM LOOKS TO BE FAIR  
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THRU 13Z-15Z BEFORE  
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. CONFIDENCE  
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT  
ISOLD IFR VSBYS THRU THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.  
 
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS FOR NRN TAF SITES AND VFR FOR  
DOWNEAST SITES XPCTD WED NGT THRU THU MORN, THEN VFR ALL SITES  
THU AFTN THRU FRI EVE. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR/IFR CLGS/VSBYS FOR  
OUR TAF SITES WILL BE LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH SN/MIXED  
PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR OVRNGT SAT AND  
THEN CONT SO ON SUN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE NEXT SIG CHC OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE  
WED NGT AND THU WITH LLVL COLD ADVCN NNW WIND PATTERN. AFTWRDS...  
WINDS AN SEAS WILL BE AT MARGINAL OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH  
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FRI NGT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK  
AND INTENSITY OF SFC LOW PRES TRACKING E FROM THE MID ATLC  
STATES INTO THE OPEN N ATLC WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA. KEPT CLOSE  
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR  
SHORT TERM...VJN  
LONG TERM...VJN  
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/VJN  
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/VJN  
CLIMATE...  
 
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