493  
FXUS61 KCAR 220413  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
1213 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OF THE  
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
UPDATE 12:10 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED WIND, DEW POINT, AND TEMPERATURE  
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
A CHILLY NIGHT UPCOMING AND MILDER FOR SUNDAY.  
 
HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO SLIDE E OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO SOME WAA TO START KICKING OVERNIGHT W/A RETURN FLOW  
AROUND THE HIGH. WE TEND TO SEE SOME COLD TEMPS W/A SETUP SUCH  
AS THIS ONE SETTING UP TONIGHT. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE  
OVERNIGHT TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES W/SOME NORTHERN AND WESTERN  
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 20S. IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT INVERSION  
WILL SET UP LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM12  
SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE QUITE A VARIATION IN TEMPS AS LOW LYING  
AREAS AS FAR S AS THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE  
30S. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT W/MOST OF  
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. MOST OF  
THE CLOUDINESS WITH BE CIRRUS AROUND 25,000 FEET.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO THE ENE BY THE AFTERNOON AS  
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
MORE SUNSHINE AND W/A LIGHT ESE FLOW, TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL  
INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST  
WILL BE COOLER W/THE ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
FIRE DANGER IS A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND  
WARM DAY ON MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY  
BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY  
WARM AS THE CIRCULATION BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES.  
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STRAY IN DOWNEAST AREAS LATE AT NIGHT  
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE ON  
TUESDAY IN THE INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE  
EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW  
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE  
AND SOME PATCHY MIST OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
DOWNEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A DIGGING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FORM THE MIDWEST WILL  
BE PUSHING UP AGAINST A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A CORRIDOR OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL  
MOISTURE WILL BE CHANNELED NORTH OUR WAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY BRINGING BANDS OF SHOWERS, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY, AS THE  
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY  
FORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANNEL NORTH  
FROM THERE AS VERY STRONG RIDGING WELL TO OUR EAST HOLDS THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
BANDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY. THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AND  
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
LIFTS NORTHEAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR DOWNEAST LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT AS SOME LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH. IFR  
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN LOW  
CLOUDS, SOME DRIZZLE, AND SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: NO ISSUES ON THE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT 5 TO  
10 KTS INTO SUNDAY W/A TURN TO ESE BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL  
RANGE 1 TO 2 FT ESPECIALLY IN THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS MAY REACH SCA ON TUESDAY AND SEAS  
WILL LIKELY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SCA OR  
GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DUE TO THE  
SOUTHERLY FETCH POSSIBLY REACHING 10-15 FT ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE  
 
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