767  
FXUS61 KCAR 291011  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
611 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL INTENSIFY AND  
TRACK NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE  
NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN MOVE  
EAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
6:10 AM UPDATE...RAIN COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WITH JUST A  
BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
NORTHWEST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO  
LOWER EARLY MORNING TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH  
THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY, SUPPORTED BY LIFT NORTH OF A NEGATIVELY  
TILTED TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE TROUGH  
BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED IT WILL INTENSIFY LOW  
PRESSURE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH  
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND PULL  
COLDER AIR INTO ITS CIRCULATION CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW  
ACROSS EASTERN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL  
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE WEST. SNOW OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY ACROSS AROOSTOOK  
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES.  
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM  
LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW  
EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW WILL WET.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ACCUMULATING SNFL WILL MSLY WRAP UP BY LATE SAT MORN OVR ERN  
AREAS AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES NNE FROM NS PROV INTO THE NRN CAN  
MARITIMES. PATCHY BLSN WILL CONT OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA AS WNW  
WINDS GUST AT AND JUST ABV 40 MPH, SPCLY ACROSS HIGH TRRN. TEMPS  
RISING ABV FREEZING AND WIND GUSTS DMNSHG BELOW 35 MPH WILL  
KEEP SN FROM BLOWING DURG THE AFTN. OTHERWISE, SCT SN SHWRS WILL  
END SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA SAT AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.  
 
WINDS WILL DMNSH AS SKIES CLR SAT NGT WITH SEASONAL LOW TEMPS  
AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM THE NW BUILDS TOWARD THE FA. SUN AND SUN  
NGT LOOK TO FAIR WITH LGT WINDS AND CONTD NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MON THRU MON NGT CONTS TO LOOK FAIR WITH MILDER TEMPS AS SFC  
HIGH PRES HOLDS OVR THE FA. CLDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE  
S AND W AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST  
BEGINS TO APCH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONALLY MILD.  
 
AFTWRDS, LONG RANGE MODELS VARY BOTH FROM EACH OTHER AND RUN TO  
RUN WITH THE TMG OF THE MIDWEST LOW. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED  
THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM BY AT LEAST 6 TO 12 HRS FROM ADVERTISED  
IN YSTDY'S DAY SHIFT, AND IN FACT BLENDED MODEL ONSET POPS FOR  
TUE INTO WED WERE DELAYED BY THIS MARGIN. BLOCKING OF HIGH PRES  
ACROSS CNTRL QB AND THE NRN CAN MARITIMES WILL SLOW THE ONSET OF  
PRECIP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR FA LATE TUE NGT INTO WED (WITH  
A SLIGHTLY INVERTED HIGH TEMPS NOTED FOR WED AFTN), WITH  
DOWNSLOPING ENE WINDS FROM THE GASPE AND NRN NB HIGHLANDS REALLY  
SLOWING DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA AS A TRIPLE  
POINT SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS OVR THE GULF OF ME. WITH THIS IN  
MIND, WE WEIGHT THE HIGHEST LIKELY POPS WED NGT INTO THU WITH  
SIG PRECIP REACHING FAR NRN AREAS LAST LATE WED NGT INTO THU  
MORN, BEFORE TAPERING TO SHWRS THU AFTN OR EVE.  
 
PRECIP TYPES WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM, SPCLY OVR  
DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR NOW, WE LET TYPE BE SOMEWHAT BE DICTATED BY  
DIURNAL/NOCTURAL TRENDS OF TEMPS, WHICH IS A FAIR FIRST GUESS  
FOR SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE WHERE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHERE  
MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP BANDING AND TMG RELATIVE TO NGT FOR ACCURATE  
SNFL PROJECTIONS, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL  
LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIG OVRNGT TO MORN SNFL WED NGT  
INTO THU WHERE BANDING SETS UP. FOR NOW, WE KEEP TEMPS NEAR  
SEASONAL NORMS WED THRU THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY IFR  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY, THEN  
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: SAT MORN...NRN TAF SITES IFR CLGS/VSBYS IN LGT  
SN/BLSN. MVFR SITES MVFR CLGS/OCNL VSBYS IN SCT SN SHWRS. VERY  
STRONG NW WINDS.  
 
SAT AFTN...NRN TAF SITES MVFR CLGS/OCNL VSBYS IN SCT SN SHWRS.  
DOWNEAST SITES LOW VFR CLGS. STRONG NW WINDS.  
 
SAT NGT...ALL TAF SITES VFR. MDT NW WINDS, BECMG LGT AFTER  
MDNGT.  
 
SUN - TUE MORN...ALL TAF SITES VFR WITH LGT WINDS.  
 
TUE AFTN...ALL TAF SITES MVFR CLGS. LGT TO MDT E WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE UP LATER TODAY THROUGH  
TONIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL  
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE GALE.  
 
SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ON SAT WILL DMNSH TO SCA BY LATE  
IN THE DAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DMNSHG BELOW SCA ON SUN.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA MON AND TUE BEFORE  
INCREASING TO SCA AND POSSIBLY ABV TUE NGT THRU WED. KEPT CLOSE  
TO BLENDED WV MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS WITH WVS MSLY  
COMPOSED OF A SHORT FETCH 3 TO 5 SEC AND LONGER SWELL LIKE 9 TO  
11 SEC GROUPS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATE SNOWMELT OVER  
THE AREA. THE SNOWPACK IS RAPIDLY RIPENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
VERY SATURATED SOILS AND STANDING WATER COULD BE AN ISSUE  
BEFORE WATER ENTERS THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. IN THE NORTH, MAIN  
STEM RIVERS WILL MOSTLY BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE ADDITIONAL INPUT.  
HOWEVER, THE PISCATAQUIS AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER BASINS ARE AT  
RISK FOR REACHING MINOR FLOOD LEVEL LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THE PENOBSCOT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACTED, BUT SOME  
POINTS ON THE LOWER REACHES COULD REACH ACTION STAGE. IN THE FAR  
NORTH, THE ADDITIONAL WATER INPUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO FINALLY MOVE  
THE ICE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (INCLUDING BAXTER &  
MOOSEHEAD REGION) INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-002-005-006.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-  
015>017-029>032.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
ANZ050>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER  
SHORT TERM...VJN  
LONG TERM...VJN  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/VJN  
MARINE...BLOOMER/VJN  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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