494  
FXUS61 KCAR 181006  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
606 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT  
THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
6 AM UPDATE...RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS  
MORNING. DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE  
CLEARING IS SETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST REMAINS ON  
TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL MODIFICATIONS MADE TO CLOUD COVER AND  
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST PUSHING DRIER AND  
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM WEST  
TO EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LATER  
AROUND 5K FEET THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY WILL RESULT IN A FEW  
CUMULUS CLOUDS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. ANY CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.  
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THIS TERM AS HIGH PRES  
BUILDS IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE  
GFS, NAM AND ECWMF SHOW AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION  
LATER THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
FAR NORTHERN TIER AND THAT IS ABOUT IT. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO  
SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY W/A RETURN FLOW OF SSW WINDS. THIS WILL  
BRING IN WARMER TEMPS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. 925MB  
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 22-24C WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO THE  
MID 80S AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO  
THE DAYCREW'S THINKING OF MID 80S FOR DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING BY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL  
W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO AROUND 60. DAYTIME TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE  
LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY AS A SUB-  
TROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP FROM THE SE AND BRING SOME  
RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z  
GFS AND ECMWF ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE LOW LIFTING  
NORTH FROM MID-ATLC COAST ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS NYS AND  
INTO ONTARIO, CANADA BY MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE  
IT WILL BE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND  
LOWER 80S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. GIVEN THE SETUP AND IF TEMPS  
HIT THE FORECAST TEMPS, THERE COULD BE SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN WOULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL.  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON  
BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN  
UNSETTLED BY TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH LATE WEEK. STRONG HIGH  
PRES ANCHORING ITSELF IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOW PRES CLOSING  
OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A SSW FLOW TO BECOME  
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN  
HUMIDITY W/DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S. A SERIES OF  
DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION  
TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK COULD BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS W/POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE TALKING DAYS 6-7,  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE MENTION ON TSTMS MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING  
THEN REMAIN VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE  
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER THE  
NORTH.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR LOOK TO BE SETTING UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND  
POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD BRING  
CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY  
AND TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA  
THRESHOLDS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS OF 3-4 FT AT THE START OF THIS TERM  
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY SATURDAY, BUT START TO  
BUILD BACK TO AROUND 5 FT BY LATE SUNDAY W/A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY  
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10  
KTS.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER  
SHORT TERM...HEWITT  
LONG TERM...HEWITT  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT  
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT  
 
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