037  
FXUS61 KCAR 230927  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
527 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY  
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW TRACKS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MID-  
ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION. A STRONGER LOW FROM THE MIDWEST  
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
522 AM UPDATE: WE ADDED PATCHY DZ TO THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE  
RGN TIL ABOUT MID MORN, AFT WHICH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED  
FRONT SHOULD END ANY DZ. OTHERWISE, ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS TO  
FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS INTO LATE MORN BASED ON LATEST VERY ERLY  
MORN OBS.  
 
ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS WILL BE EXITING ERN PTNS OF THE  
RGN OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS, LEAVING IN ITS WAKE CLDY SKIES;  
ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY FOG OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. CLDNSS  
AND ANY FOG WILL THEN LIFT BY MID MORN, AND THEN BREAK TO RESULT  
IN PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN. HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE  
60S AND EVEN LOW 70S OVR THE INTERIOR SW, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH  
SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE.  
 
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PTLY CLDY TNGT AS A WEAK HI BOTH AT THE SFC  
AND ALF BRIDGES OVR THE RGN FROM THE SW. CANNOT RULE OUT LATE  
NGT PATCHY FOG SPCLY WHERE THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RN FROM THIS  
PAST OVRNGT OVR SE ME. OTHERWISE, UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES ON  
WED, HI TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST  
LOWER TRRN LCTNS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WILL BE COOLER  
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SHALLOW AFTN SEA BREEZE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE  
TO OUR NORTH RIDGES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH  
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BE CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST. THE LARGE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED LOW WILL APPROACH THURSDAY  
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN  
OR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN WESTERN AND  
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE NORTHEAST MAY BE CLOUDY BUT RAINFREE MOST OF THE  
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE  
AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT  
BRINGING RAIN, MAINLY DOWNEAST, AND A NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART  
OF OUR REGION. RAIN MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTH BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AS THE  
LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE RAIN WILL THEN RETREAT TO THE  
SOUTH AND EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS INTO  
THE MARITIMES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
THIS MAY ALLOW SKIES TO BRIEFLY CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE  
A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC SLIDES THROUGH. DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THE  
LOW IN QUEBEC EXITS TO THE EAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: IFR/LOW MVFR CLGS VSBYS NRN TAF SITES AND LOW IFR  
CLGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY  
RAPIDLY TO VFR BY MIDDAY. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR  
TNGT THRU WED.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ON THURSDAY AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN.  
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN  
DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS  
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD, WITH PATCHY MARINE FOG DISSIPATING  
LATER THIS MORN AND AFTERNOON, ONLY TO LIKELY TO REFORM OVRNGT  
INTO WED MORN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY  
GAVE 1 TO 2 FT WV HTS FOR OUR INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND 2 TO 3 FT  
FOR OUR OUR MZS WITH WV PDS VARYING FROM 4 TO 7 FT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SCA MAY EXTEND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...VJN  
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER  
LONG TERM...BLOOMER  
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER  
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER  
 
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