449
FXUS61 KGYX 171859
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
SYNOPSIS
BLOCKED UPPER FLOW WITH UPPER LOW OVER REGION WILL BE MAJOR
PLAYER AS IT ROTATES AROUND ITSELF WELL THROUGH THE WEEK. SPOKES
OF SURFACE LOWS PINWHEEL AROUND UPPER LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST IN THE BLOCKED
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL STILL LINGERING NEAR PENOBSCOT
ATTM...BUT EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
MOVE OUT BEFORE SUNSET. SHARP CLEARING JUST W OF THESE
SHRA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS THAT ARE POPPING ALONG CONVERGENCE
LINE...FROM ABOUT KPWM-COBURN GORE AT 3PM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
SHIFT E LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. KGYX RADAR SHOWS NO
ECHOES...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHRA OR TWO POP UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT...500MB CLOSED LOW SHIFTS E TOWARD GREAT LAKES...WHILE
CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SHIFTING BACK TO THE N ACROSS THE
MARITIMES...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE FUJIWARA SPINNING THAT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE WAVE EJECTING OUT FROM S OF
THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER
NY/PA...AND THAT AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THANKS TO THE MINI-RIDGING AT 500MB THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOWS ALOFT...AND THE FACT THAT THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEING FUELED BY DAYTIME HEATING...THINK
THAT THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...WITH THE
OUTSIDE CHC FOR THUNDER TO REACH INTO FAR WRN ZONES. ALSO...BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LIFT NE...SO THE BETTER CHC FOR ANY SHRA WILL
BE OVER NRN HALF OF THE CWA. PRECIP WILL LIFT N AND OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING LIKELY BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
ANOTHER BIT OF WEAK UPPER LVL RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
WAVE...REFLECTING WEAK SFC RIDGING...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
BREAK IN THE SHRA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
WEST...AND PROBABLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN THE E...BEFORE NEXT
WAVE DROPS SE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR INCR
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE CHC OR SHRA IN NH FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER LOW KEEPS IT UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SO LOOKING
RATHER UNSETTLED. BEST CHANCE AND IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR A SOAKING
PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
PREACHING SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A 1/4 INCH OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS TO OVER AND INCH OVER NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS DURING THE WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO TIME IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...IN GENERAL EXPECT VFR THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...A FEW SHRA COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VIS/CIG TO MVFR
THIS EVE...WITH THE BETTER CH AT KLEB/KCON/KAUG.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...OCCASIONALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY. CONTINUED PERIODS OF MVFR IN ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THEREAFTER.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING S WINDS DURING THE DAY ON SUN...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING SCA LVLS LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM...SCA SUNDAY NIGHT ...POSSIBLY MINIMAL GLW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...THEN LOWERING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA
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