083  
FXUS61 KGYX 220139  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
939 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND  
AND MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE REGION  
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH  
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
940 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS  
CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION. INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA.  
 
7 PM UPDATE: HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING THROUGH THE LARGE  
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRID FORECAST FOR  
A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. INPUT LATEST OBS  
DATA WITH NO DISCERNABLE CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE TONIGHT...BUT PLENTY  
OF SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. STARTED  
WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THIS MORNING AND BLENDED IN MOS GUIDANCE AND  
BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE. THIS RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES  
FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN DEW POINTS ARE  
HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AND SUGGEST MAINLY UPPER 30S AT THE  
COOLEST SPOTS. THOSE INCREASED DEW POINTS MAY ALSO HELP VALLEY  
FOG FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN ZONES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WITH HIGH CENTER OFF SHORE FLOW WILL BE MORE ELY SUN...KEEPING  
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN ME COAST AND  
SEACOAST NH. MIXED DOWN H9 TEMPS AND THEN BLENDED IN THE MET  
GUIDANCE TO SHOW THE COOLER ONSHORE TEMPS.  
 
SUN NIGHT INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DEEPER RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP  
TEMPS MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR  
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.  
AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL  
BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN OCEAN STRATUS INTO SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY  
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN  
THE NORTH AND MID COAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.  
 
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE  
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT SPREADING OCEAN STRATUS INTO MOST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY EDGE INTO  
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY DAYBREAK BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA  
TO SEE A DRY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF MUCH  
WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY ON  
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST INTO NEW  
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WILL  
SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
RIDE NORTH ALONG IT. TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL PROVIDE PLENTY  
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SO SEVERAL INCHES OF MUCH  
NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION. JACKPOT FOR RAINFALL  
STILL APPEARS FOCUSED IN EASTERN MAINE BUT 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS  
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH BOTH  
THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING THESE AMOUNTS IF NOT SLIGHTLY  
MORE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE WITH  
READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS  
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.  
 
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MAINE. LOOKING FOR RAIN IN THE  
EVENING TO TAPER TO SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. LOWS  
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN COAST AND  
MIDCOAST AREAS.  
 
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY  
KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER  
TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.  
 
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS  
SHALLOW RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT EVENING  
SHOWERS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIR  
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH  
OF NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN.  
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HELP  
VALLEY FOG FORM IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LIFR AFTER 06Z FOR LEB  
AND HIE...LIFTING AT HIE FIRST AND LEB AROUND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW  
SUN NIGHT MAY ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG TO DEVELOP...THOUGH  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN  
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THRU SUN NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...SCA'S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT. GALES POSSIBLE ON  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR TERM...MARINE  
 
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