960
FXUS61 KGYX 071953
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST OF CAPE COD LATER WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...INCREASING MOISTURE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPORT SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON CLOUD COVER/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS
...THOUGH HAVE KEPT A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SOME EVENING SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.
TEMPS/WINDS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST AND POPS A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.
STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.
BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY FR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MVFR
IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG 08Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE SCA'S FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. EXPECT TO GO BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NOONTIME.
LONG TERM...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS IN THE LONG TERM.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
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