975  
FXUS61 KGYX 150230  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
930 PM EST THU DEC 14 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND SHIFT EAST  
ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH WILL PROVIDE  
CLOUDS, AND MAYBE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND  
STARTS A WARMING TREND. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER, SEVERAL FAST  
MOVING SYSTEMS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY TO  
MID NEST WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
930 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TO REFLECT  
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.  
 
540 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. VERY COLD  
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE  
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW AREAS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT  
RESULTING IN LOWS BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS - ESPECIALLY WITH  
SNOWCOVER NOW IN PLACE.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT, BUT  
SHOULD SEE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST  
SUNSET, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE  
IF AND HOW QUICKLY SFC AREAS CAN DECOUPLE LATER AFTER THE WINDS  
DIMINISH. LOOKS LIKE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
DURING THE LATTER PART AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND FORECAST LOWS  
CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT, DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW  
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO  
ELSEWHERE. EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING WINDS AIR ALOFT IS STILL  
PLENTY COLD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNY, AND GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE  
SUNNY SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO MOVE  
IN FROM THE SW. WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST SFC FLOW  
WILL BE LIGHT, AND DESPITE A BIT OF SW FLOW ALOFT, THE LACK OF  
MIXING WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE COLDER SIDE, AND SIMILAR TO  
THURSDAY, GENERALLY IN THE TEENS N, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE  
S.  
 
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY  
WILL TRANSITION ENERGY TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE.  
THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.  
SCATTERED SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH, AND THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT SHSN TO THE SE AS THE COASTAL LOW  
DEVELOPS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH A  
DUSTING AT BEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 ABOVE IN THE MTNS, TO  
15-20 ON THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
BACKSIDE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND COULD TRIGGER  
SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWS. IT WILL BE WARMER, BUT STILL COLD,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER  
WEATHER.  
 
CUT OFF UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL TRACK  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, GETTING SQUASHED BY A  
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST US AS IT DOES SO. BY THE TIME ITS  
REMNANTS GET INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY THERE MAY ONLY BE SOME  
CLOUDS LEFT WITH IT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT  
SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AS THERE IS NOT A GOOD  
MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH IT.  
 
BROADER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE HAS A BETTER  
MOISTURE CONNECTION AND MAY PULL IN SOME WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT.  
THUS IT MAY ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA, BUT EXPECT A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS NORTHWEST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY BUT VFR ELSEWHERE.  
VFR AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW AREA WIDE  
ON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...SURGE OF WEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS OCCURING  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EVENING AT  
LEAST, SO SCA WILL HOLD AS FOR NOW. MAY SEE WINDS DROP OFF IN  
THE BAYS BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR CASCO BAY. MAY  
NEED SCA AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...MAY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS LATE SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA  
KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...EKSTER  
 
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