283  
FXUS61 KGYX 261813  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
213 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS  
WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL  
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY INTO MID WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID  
CONDITIONS MOVE IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE  
CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY ACROSS NH. THIS SCATTERED  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST WITH TIME,  
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TO WESTERN ME AND THE MOUNTAINS  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT FOG IN MANY  
AREAS. HOWEVER, HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER SOME OF THE MORE  
VULNERABLE INLAND VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN NH.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY  
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CAPE  
VALUES. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH  
WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS IMPULSES OVER THE LAST  
DAY OR TWO. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE  
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT, THERE REMAINS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW OF THE  
STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN  
THE HWO, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS  
TIME TO ADD THIS HAZARD CATEGORICALLY TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF THE YEAR. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S, EXCEPT IT WILL BE CHILLY  
WITH 60S ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING. THEREAFTER, ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
LIMITED TO THE REGION OF BEST DYNAMICS WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE  
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW  
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S  
SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE  
PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD  
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS  
TROUGH LIFTS OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY A LOW  
AMPLITUDE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL DIFFICULT TO TIME WEAK  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. BY EARLY IN THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND...ONE OF THESE IMPULSES WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LOW  
AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE TAIL END OF THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND. IN THE DAILIES...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION. FOR THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS LOW  
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS EAST-WEST ORIENTED  
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THEN MEANDER A  
BIT NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS TRACK ALONG IT. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF  
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY CONTRIBUTING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DURING THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT  
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
THUNDERSTORM OVER NH AND WESTERNMOST ME. THERE MAY BE SOME  
PATCHY VALLEY FOG, MAINLY OVER NH AND IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS  
OF ME.  
 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE  
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS  
OF CONDITIONS IN THE PRECIPITATION.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
WED - THU...SCT MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA.  
 
FRI - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL IFR PSB VCNTY OF  
THE COAST IN FOG.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS IN  
THE NEAR/SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
THU PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE  
BAYS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR TERM...CANNON  
SHORT TERM...CANNON  
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS  
 
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