167  
FXUS61 KGYX 260753  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
353 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY  
AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE  
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS  
A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL  
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SOUTH OF  
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
TODAY WILL BE ALL ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT  
AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE NE TO THE SW. FOR THE MOST PART INTERIOR  
SRN NH, SHOULD GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM AS THE FRONT  
WON;T MAKE IT THERE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING,  
HOWEVER, COULD SEE SHOWERS OR T-STORMS DEVELOP MID-LATE  
AFTERNOON THERE. THINK THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SW THRU THE CWA  
ABOUT MIDDAY IN THE NE ZONES AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST DURING  
THE MID AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FROM THE NW-  
SE ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE DAY, ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO REMAIN SCT.  
THERE ARE A COUPLE TIMES TODAY WHERE THE SHOWERS COULD BECOME  
MORE NUMEROUS, THE FIRST IS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE  
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS SW ME. COULD  
SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS BATCH AS WELL.  
 
AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU LOOK FOR ANY SUN TO DISAPPEAR AS SKIES  
BECOME OVC, AND TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE  
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUICKLY ONSHORE AND  
COULD BE GUSTY FOR AN HOUR OR SO, SO TEMPS MAY DROP 10-15 F IN  
AN HOUR OR TWO HERE. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CLASSIC SPRING BACK  
DOOR FRONT ON THE COAST. POINTS S OF A LINE FROM SEBAGO LAKE  
THRU THE NH LAKES REGION AND TOWARD KLEB SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY  
DECENT AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HIGHS ACROSS THE  
REST OF THE CWA WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM THE  
WHITE MTNS SE TOWARD CASCO BAY AND AROUND 70 IN THE ME MTNS, SE  
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND ONTO THE MID-COAST. OF COURSE  
SHOULD THE TIMING CHANGE, EVEN BY AN HOUR OR TWO AND THE  
FORECAST MAX TEMPS COULD BE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OFF.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER THIS EVENING ACROSS ANY PLACE THE FRONT  
HAS NOT PASSED IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY SRN  
NH. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO AROUND 50 IN ALL BUT  
SRN NH, WHERE THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SRN INTO THIS  
EVENING, BUT MOSTLY SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME FAR AND FEW BETWEEN  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIRER AND CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN N AND E  
ZONES, BUT CLOUDS LINGER TO THE S AND W, AND SOME FOG IS  
POSSIBLE. HERE AS WELL.  
 
ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH, SO THE  
E-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN,  
ESPECIALLY ION THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKE BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
50S /MATCHING OFFSHORE WATER TEMPS PRETTY WELL/, WITH WINDS OF  
10-15 MPH. THE ONE BIT OF GOOD NEWS, IS THAT, ALTHOUGH THE MIXED  
LAYER IS ONLY 1-2 FT DEEP, THE EASTERLY FLOW IS DEEPER, TO 5K  
OR 6K FT, AND THERE IS MARKED DURING ABOVE THE MIXED LYR. THUS,  
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE DIFFUSE AND SEE A LOT  
OF MOTION, SO NOT ANTICIPATING DZ OR FG DURING THE DAY,  
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
SHOWER ON SUNDAY EITHER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, BUT ANY THAT  
DO DEVELOP WOULD BE ISOLATED. ALSO SOME GOOD NEWS IF YOU'RE IN  
THE ME MTNS OR THE PENOBSCOT VLY SUNDAY, SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE  
ON SUNDAY AS WELL, AS THE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS ALSO  
LIKELY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER, IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLE MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  
A COOL, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A FEW LIGHT  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS FLOW, MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS. BY MON  
NIGHT AN UPPER TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING  
A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A LARGE CANADIAN RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
A RETURN TO SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUE  
THROUGH THU WITH FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS. BY FRI THE RIDGE MOVES  
WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW  
TO DEVELOP. THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO WILL BECOME ENTRAINED WITH  
THE LOWER/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAY REACH THE REGION  
FRI WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FORM NE-SW THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
WILL SEE CONDS QUICKLY BECOME VFR MID-LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN  
IFR THIS EVENING. IFR COULD LINGER AT THE COAST THRU SUNDAY,  
BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT, TO VFR ANYWAY, AT INLAND  
TERMINALS.  
 
LONG TERM...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS ON THE COAST  
AND PERHAPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM.., WINDS SEAS STAY BELOW SCA INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH  
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH SCA LEVELS BRIEFLY MID-LATE  
AFTERNOON, AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTS THRU AND WINDS SWITCH  
FROM WEST TO NE. MAY NEED SCA ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES S OF  
THE WATERS AND EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP.  
 
LONG TERM...SCA DUE TO SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MON.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FOR THE MOST LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODERATE RH VALUES.  
SRN NH WILL BE THE ONLY PLACE THAT COULD SEE RH DIP DOWN TO  
35-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FLOW SWITCHES ONSHORE  
THIS AFTER INTO THIS EVENING AND STAYS THAT WAY INTO MONDAY, SO  
EXPECT HIGHER RH AND ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
 
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