781  
FGUS73 KGRR 031153  
ESFGRR  
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-  
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-021800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
619 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2017  
   
..2017 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2
 
 
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS  
IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THERE IS NEAR NORMAL  
RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING. THE REGION HAS  
WELL BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK...BUT THE RIVER LEVELS ARE RUNNING  
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
   
..FLOOD TERMINOLOGY
 
 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY  
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF  
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS. SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE  
AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXSTENSIVE INUNDATION  
OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS. SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR  
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE NEEDED.  
   
..PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
 
THE PORTAGE AND WHITE BASINS ALONG WITH SYCAMORE CREEK ARE  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE FLOOD RISK. THE REMAINDER OF  
THE BASINS WERE AT A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.  
 
   
..PAST PRECIPITATION
 
 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST FALL AND WINTER HAS  
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  
   
..RIVER CONDITIONS
 
 
THE RIVER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. LITTLE OR NO ICE  
EXISTED IN THE AREA RIVERS.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS
 
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WAS NO FROST AT THE MEASURING SITES.  
   
..SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT
 
 
THE ONLY SNOW COVER WAS UP OVER THE PERE MARQUETTE  
BASIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF LESS WATER  
EQUIVALENT. THESE VALUES REPRESENT WELL BELOW NORMAL LIQUID WATER  
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 28 32 14 18 <5 13  
EATON RAPIDS 6.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DIMONDALE 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
EAST LANSING 7.0 10.0 13.0 : 16 24 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 40 35 9 8 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
LANSING 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 10 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAND LEDGE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PORTLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 34 40 6 7 <5 <5  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 26 39 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
IONIA 21.0 23.0 25.0 : 10 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
LOWELL 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 13 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 26 36 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CALEDONIA 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 16 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
ADA 20.0 22.0 25.0 : 8 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 10 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 5.5 6.5 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 23 <5 8 <5 <5  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 15 34 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 8 15 5 12 <5 10  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 4.0 5.0 6.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
BATTLE CREEK 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COMSTOCK 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NEW RICHMOND 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 6.5 9.0 11.0 : 6 16 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 5.0 7.0 8.0 : 52 36 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 8.0 11.0 13.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.4 15.2 15.9  
EATON RAPIDS 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.6 5.8  
DIMONDALE 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.6 9.6 10.4 10.8  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 6.4 6.4 6.5 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.5  
EAST LANSING 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.4 8.1  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.2  
:GRAND RIVER  
LANSING 7.3 7.3 7.4 8.4 9.8 11.0 11.4  
GRAND LEDGE 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.2 9.5  
PORTLAND 8.4 8.4 8.5 9.4 10.2 10.5 11.0  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 4.7 4.8 5.3 6.4 7.5 8.4 9.1  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.6  
:GRAND RIVER  
IONIA 16.1 16.2 16.6 18.2 19.9 20.9 21.6  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.7  
:GRAND RIVER  
LOWELL 10.1 10.1 10.2 11.8 13.8 15.6 16.1  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 4.8 4.8 5.2 6.0 7.1 7.7 8.4  
CALEDONIA 5.8 5.9 6.2 7.0 8.4 9.4 10.3  
:GRAND RIVER  
ADA 13.9 13.9 14.1 16.1 17.9 19.5 20.3  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.0 8.3  
:GRAND RIVER  
GRAND RAPIDS 10.2 10.3 10.6 13.3 15.4 17.3 18.1  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.0  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 6.1  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.6 11.2 12.3  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.1  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.4 9.3 10.1  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.6 9.2  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
BATTLE CREEK 4.1 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.6  
COMSTOCK 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.5 8.9  
NEW RICHMOND 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.2 16.7  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.8  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.8 7.5 8.2  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.8 7.9  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 03/05/2017 - 06/03/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.1 9.0  
EATON RAPIDS 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6  
DIMONDALE 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.0  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6  
EAST LANSING 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1  
:GRAND RIVER  
LANSING 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0  
GRAND LEDGE 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1  
PORTLAND 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.3  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7  
:GRAND RIVER  
IONIA 11.0 10.8 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.0 8.8  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6  
:GRAND RIVER  
LOWELL 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.3  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1  
CALEDONIA 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4  
:GRAND RIVER  
ADA 9.2 8.9 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.4  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9  
:GRAND RIVER  
GRAND RAPIDS 4.7 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 4.5 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
BATTLE CREEK 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0  
COMSTOCK 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1  
NEW RICHMOND 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.2 10.4 9.9 9.8  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR.  
 

 
 
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