152  
FGUS73 KGRR 192312  
ESFGRR  
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-  
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-181800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
600 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS  
IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS GENERALLY  
NEAR NORMAL. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE GREATEST  
RISK RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE GRAND, THORNAPPLE,  
LOOKING GLASS AND MAPLE BASINS. THE MUSKEGON AND CHIPPEWA BASINS  
FEATURE A BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.  
   
..FLOOD TERMINOLOGY
 
 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY  
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF  
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS. SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE  
AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION  
OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS. SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR  
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
   
..PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS  
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC  
PREDICTION SERVICE.  
   
..PAST PRECIPITATION
 
 
THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL.  
   
..RIVER CONDITIONS
 
 
CURRENT FLOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.  
ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS IS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON  
THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE NOVEMBER.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS
 
 
SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL. FROST DEPTHS WERE  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT
 
 
SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT WAS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL IN  
THE MUSKEGON, WHITE, KALAMAZOO AND PERE MARQUETTE RIVERS, AND  
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM  
LESS THAN 10 INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS TO  
UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE LOWER REACHES, CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WATER  
EQUIVALENT VALUES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. SOME WATER CONTENT  
VALUES OVER 3 INCHES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE LOWER REACHES OF THE  
MAINSTEM RIVERS, CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 27 TO MARCH 5TH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES  
FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY
 
 
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN  
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND CALLS FOR GENERALLY A NEAR NORMAL RISK  
FOR FLOODING. THE MUSKEGON AND CHIPPEWA BASINS FEATURE A  
LOWER RISK PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LESS THAN NORMAL WATER CONTENT OF  
THE SNOWPACK. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR  
FLOODING INCLUDE THE GRAND, THORNAPPLE, LOOKING GLASS AND MAPLE  
RIVERS.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUES OF CS IS MORE THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE  
OF CS IS LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 9.0 10.0 10.5 : 12 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
EAST LANSING 7.0 10.0 13.0 : 58 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 67 30 6 <5 <5 <5  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 84 53 27 13 <5 <5  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 61 41 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 69 33 12 <5 <5 <5  
CALEDONIA 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 41 15 6 <5 <5 <5  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 13 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 44 29 29 15 10 10  
EATON RAPIDS 6.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DIMONDALE 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LANSING 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 18 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAND LEDGE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PORTLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
IONIA 21.0 23.0 25.0 : 21 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LOWELL 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 27 20 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ADA 20.0 22.0 25.0 : 23 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAND RAPIDS 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 26 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 9 23 <5 7 <5 <5  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 21 33 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 5.5 6.5 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 4.0 5.0 6.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 12 <5 9 <5 9  
BATTLE CREEK 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COMSTOCK 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NEW RICHMOND 17.0 19.0 21.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 6.5 9.0 11.0 : 12 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 5.0 7.0 8.0 : 38 30 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 8.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 7.1 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.8 9.2 9.7  
EAST LANSING 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.6 9.2  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.0  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.1  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.8  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.7 8.4 9.1 9.5  
CALEDONIA 7.0 7.4 8.4 9.6 10.8 11.7 12.9  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.5 8.3 8.7  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.6  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.7 15.1 16.3 17.3  
EATON RAPIDS 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.1  
DIMONDALE 7.2 7.7 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.8 11.3  
LANSING 6.8 7.3 8.4 9.3 10.9 12.4 12.6  
GRAND LEDGE 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.2 9.2 9.8 9.9  
PORTLAND 8.6 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.2 11.8 12.2  
IONIA 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.9 22.2 22.6  
LOWELL 10.1 10.9 12.0 13.3 15.6 16.6 17.3  
ADA 14.4 15.2 16.6 18.2 20.0 21.2 22.0  
GRAND RAPIDS 11.3 12.3 14.1 16.0 18.1 19.7 20.8  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.1 12.9  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.8 4.9  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.9 9.8 10.6  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.8 6.1  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.3  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.2  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 5.1 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.4  
BATTLE CREEK 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.6  
COMSTOCK 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.3 8.5 8.9  
NEW RICHMOND 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.7  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.9  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.5 7.2 7.7  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.9 7.7 7.8  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:RED CEDAR RIVER  
WILLIAMSTON 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0  
EAST LANSING 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
:SYCAMORE CREEK  
HOLT 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4  
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER  
EAGLE 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLE RAPIDS 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6  
:THORNAPPLE RIVER  
HASTINGS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9  
CALEDONIA 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2  
:ROGUE RIVER  
ROCKFORD 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9  
:FLAT RIVER  
SMYRNA 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4  
:GRAND RIVER  
JACKSON 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7  
EATON RAPIDS 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5  
DIMONDALE 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4  
LANSING 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6  
GRAND LEDGE 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8  
PORTLAND 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5  
IONIA 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2  
LOWELL 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9  
ADA 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9  
GRAND RAPIDS 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
EVART 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1  
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER  
MORLEY 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2  
:MUSKEGON RIVER  
CROTON 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9  
:WHITE RIVER  
WHITEHALL 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6  
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER  
SCOTTVILLE 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5  
:BATTLE CREEK  
BATTLE CREEK 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8  
:KALAMAZOO RIVER  
MARSHALL 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
BATTLE CREEK 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9  
COMSTOCK 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
NEW RICHMOND 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0  
:ST JOSEPH RIVER  
BURLINGTON 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5  
:PORTAGE RIVER  
VICKSBURG 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5  
:CHIPPEWA RIVER  
MT PLEASANT 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0  
:PINE RIVER  
ALMA 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1  
 
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS FOR THE PROBABILITY OF  
STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING  
THE PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN  
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND RAPIDS AHPS  
WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED  
MARCH 4 2015.  
 
ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY...FLOODSMART.GOV AND READY.GOV/FLOODS  
 

 
 
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