430
FGUS73 KMQT 141447
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-141600-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
944 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
..2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
WESTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING IS MUCH BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS ALL
OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE PRIMARY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO A BELOW-
NORMAL FLOOD RISK ARE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK AND A LACK
OF RIVER ICE.
..FLOOD TERMINOLOGY
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS. SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OF
STRUCTURE AND ROADS. SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE NEEDED.
..PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
THE CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING IS LESS THAN 20% AT ALL OF THE UPPER
MICHIGAN FORECAST LOCATIONS EXCEPT WITCH LAKE (30%) ALONG THE
MICHIGAMME RIVER AND ALSTON (34%) ALONG THE STURGEON RIVER. THE
CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING IS 5% OR LESS AT ALL OF THE UPPER
MICHIGAN FORECAST LOCATIONS EXCEPT WITCH LAKE (17%) ALONG THE
STURGEON RIVER.
..PAST PRECIPITATION
PRECIPITATION LAST FALL WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS
DRY PATTERN HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY.
..RIVER CONDITIONS
STREAMFLOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WAS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL AND
PERSISTENTLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH EPISODES OF SNOWMELT
HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE RIVER ICE.
..SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS
SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO
PERSISTENTLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SINCE LAST FALL. FROST DEPTH IN
NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP WAS 3 INCHES ON FEB 27TH AND HASN'T CHANGED MUCH
SINCE MID-JANUARY WHEN THE SEASONAL SNOWPACK WAS ESTABLISHED.
..SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT
CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE 0-25% OF NORMAL ACROSS ALL
OF UPPER MICHIGAN EXCEPT THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
KEWEENAW PENINSULA WHERE SWE VALUES WERE 25-50% OF NORMAL. EVEN
THOUGH THE U.P. WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER, SNOWPACK IS AT NEAR- TO
RECORD-LOW VALUES AND THERE AREN'T ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
..RIVER ICE CONDITIONS
MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER LIMITED ICE FORMATION AND
EPISODES OF SNOWMELT CLEARED OUT WHAT FORMED ON RIVERS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE RECENT COLD SNAP, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SPRING SUGGESTING MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE SINGLE BIGGEST FACTOR AFFECTING SPRING FLOOD RISKS ARE THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD OF SNOW MELT. A SLOW SNOW MELT
WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL WOULD ELINIMATE THIS YEARS FLOOD RISKS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, A RAPID WARMUP ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES FLOOD RISKS FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH A FEW INCHES OF LINGERING SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME,
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S PROBABILISTIC FORECAST IS FOR 33-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH MARCH. THE CURRENT THREAT FOR SPRINGTIME FLOODING
IS MUCH BELOW-NORMAL, BUT MUCH OF THE SPRING FLOODING OUTLOOK HINGES
ON WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 8 WEEKS.
..DEFINITIONS
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 30 <5 17 <5 6
:PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS (PA 7.0 8.0 9.5 : <5 18 <5 5 <5 <5
:BLACK RIVER
BESSEMER 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ONTONAGON RIVER
ROCKLAND 25.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:STURGEON RIVER
SIDNAW 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALSTON 8.0 11.0 14.0 : <5 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHOCOLAY RIVER
HARVEY 10.0 11.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
GWINN 7.0 9.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MIDDLE BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 6.5 8.0 9.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.9 6.4 7.2
:PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS (PA 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.5
:BLACK RIVER
BESSEMER 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 6.0 7.4 9.2
:ONTONAGON RIVER
ROCKLAND 7.4 8.3 8.8 10.4 12.4 14.5 15.7
:STURGEON RIVER
SIDNAW 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.2
ALSTON 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.6
:CHOCOLAY RIVER
HARVEY 3.2 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.8 6.0 7.2
:EAST BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
GWINN 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.9
:MIDDLE BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 3.1 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.3
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
:PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS (PA 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
:BLACK RIVER
BESSEMER 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9
:ONTONAGON RIVER
ROCKLAND 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3
:STURGEON RIVER
SIDNAW 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
ALSTON 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7
:CHOCOLAY RIVER
HARVEY 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
:EAST BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
GWINN 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
:MIDDLE BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MQT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK PLANNED
FOR THE SPRING 2024 SEASON.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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