193  
FNUS53 KAPX 261927  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
..BECOMING MILD AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS  
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING  
LIKELY HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MILD TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BEGINNING ON  
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270815-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (310).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1700. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.48 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270815-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0100.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER 1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (770).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.28 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-270815-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG  
AFTER 0200.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (320).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER 0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (860).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.44 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-270815-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG  
AFTER 0300.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER 0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (720).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.43 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270815-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG AFTER  
0200.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
0800.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (660).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.34 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
MEMORIAL DAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID  
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID  
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
 
 
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