075  
FNUS53 KAPX 252040  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
..SHOWER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GIVE WAY  
TO A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE  
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY.  
BEHIND THE FRONT, LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY.  
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260815-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 0200.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400, THEN  
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (530).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.45 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.46 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.14 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0500.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
AFTER 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.37 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000, THEN  
SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0200, THEN CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.43 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.16 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-260815-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 0200.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.40 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000, THEN  
SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0200, THEN CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.49 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
UNTIL 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (730).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.18 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-260815-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 0500.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.  
24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.29 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000, THEN  
SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0200, THEN CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.43 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
UNTIL 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (840).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.22 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
440 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0500.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.  
24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
AFTER 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (430).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.19 IN.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.29 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (690).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.18 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
JZ  
 
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