341  
FNUS53 KAPX 261435  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
..INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE  
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT  
POTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY  
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES LATER THURSDAY  
WHICH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  
THESE WINDS MAY ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-262030-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.11 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0400. CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.39 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1710).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 27 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.38 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-262030-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER 1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.22 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER  
1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1770).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 36 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.19 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-262030-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 1300 UNTIL 1700. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0400. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.57 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1080).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.46 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-262030-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
UNTIL 1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1310).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 27 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0400. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES COOLER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.48 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (980).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.39 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-262030-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
1035 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1600. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.23 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2390).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 36 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.33 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID  
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.  
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.  
 

 
 
SMD  
 
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