225  
FNUS53 KAPX 231937  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
..RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS  
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND...AND BRING RH LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  
WINDS WILL PICK UP SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH  
ABOVE THE MID 40S.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-240830-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN, SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET UNTIL 2400, THEN  
RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.26 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......56 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 47 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30-0.43 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS WITH  
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET  
LIKELY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.55 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). FREEZING RAIN,  
RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING  
DRIZZLE. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.26 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240830-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
UNTIL 2400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. RAIN, SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......26 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 21 DEGREES WARMER  
NEAR THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.22 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......58 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 52 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.38 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS  
AND LIGHT SLEET UNTIL 2400. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW  
SHOWERS, LIGHT SLEET LIKELY AND FREEZING RAIN  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.49 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). FREEZING RAIN,  
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SLEET UNTIL  
1200. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING  
DRIZZLE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE  
OF DRIZZLE AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 21 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.34 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-240830-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL  
2400, THEN RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING RAIN.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.  
24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.24 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL  
1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......55 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 46 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.47 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 2000, THEN  
RAIN SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.36-0.55 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND  
FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING DRIZZLE. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND  
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 32-37 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 28 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.29 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-240830-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL  
2400, THEN RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.  
24 HR TREND......27 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.24 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL  
1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......52 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 42 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (110).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.35 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 1900, THEN  
RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 2000, THEN RAIN SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.53 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL  
0800, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.33 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240830-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
337 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF  
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.20 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 1200, THEN  
RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......55 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.35 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING  
RAIN AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.53 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). FREEZING RAIN AND  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET UNTIL 1200. RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.37 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SUNDAY
 
SHOWERS, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND  
5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS AND  
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
AM  
 
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