352  
FNUS53 KAPX 031940  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
..LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH  
OF LIGHT MIXED SNOW AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.  
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY NORTH OF M-72.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY GET A BIT MILDER ON SUNDAY, BUT COOLER  
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LIGHTER INTO TONIGHT. A TOUCH OF AN  
EAST BREEZE DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN  
HIGH.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE 2017  
SEASON. THIS PRODUCT WILL RETURN IN SPRING 2018.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-041000-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW UNTIL 1200. RAIN.  
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (630).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.25 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL  
2400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (550).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-041000-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SNOW AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW AND CHANCE OF  
RAIN UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (870).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.26 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL  
2400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (470).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-041000-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SNOW AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY UNTIL  
1200. RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.20 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL  
2400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (480).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-041000-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (160).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY  
UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (420).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.14 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL  
2400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.14 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-041000-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
340 PM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND  
SNOW UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (650).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. RAIN UNTIL  
2400. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.12 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200, THEN RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (360).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.13 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.  
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SHOWERS. LOWS  
IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
5 MPH.  
 

 
 
JZ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page