881  
FNUS53 KAPX 151941  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
..RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE REGION.  
MANY AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN AND  
STORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES WIND DOWN EARLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GUST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10  
KNOTS OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 80  
EACH DAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-160815-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.33 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.38 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (470).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160815-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR  
THE COAST.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.34 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND  
9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.47 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (490).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-160815-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.40 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.43 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (540).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-160815-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (240).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.44 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.63 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (640).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160815-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
341 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400, THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.12 IN.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
1200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.  
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.50 IN.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.65 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (530).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SATURDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80.  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH  
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.  
 

 
 
SJ  
 
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