303  
FNUS53 KAPX 220635  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
..RECORD-SETTING WARMTH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
OUR ENTIRE REGION THRU SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT HOT TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE  
SEPTEMBER...AND WILL LIKELY BREAK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR  
SOME LOCATIONS.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222015-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (930).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (780).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222015-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (760).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-222015-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG  
THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-222015-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 78-83 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (870).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (720).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222015-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
235 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (950).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER  
2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (730).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
SUNDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE  
MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
MR  
 
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