212
FNUS53 KAPX 242104
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
..LAST FORECAST FOR THE SEASON
DISCUSSION
A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE SEASON...UNLESS
ANOTHER DRY WARM PERIOD SHOWS UP. SPOT FORECASTS ARE WELCOME
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-250930-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0100. AREAS OF
FOG AFTER 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.38 IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1900...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE UNTIL 0700...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.28 IN.
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250930-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900. AREAS OF
FOG AFTER 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.22 IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL
0700. RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.25 IN.
MIZ020-025>027-250930-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900 UNTIL
0100. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0100. AREAS
OF FOG AFTER 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.26 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
1300. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0700. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.33 IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL
0700. RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.31 IN.
MIZ031>033-250930-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900 UNTIL
0100. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0100. AREAS
OF FOG AFTER 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.31 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
1300. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0700. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.22 IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL
0700. RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.36 IN.
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250930-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL
0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900. AREAS OF
FOG AFTER 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.15 IN.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL
1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.20 IN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL
0700. RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.33 IN.
EXTENDED
FRIDAY
RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS AROUND
30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
JL
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