782  
FNUS53 KAPX 221936  
FWFAPX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
..ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
MORE SUN THAN EXPECTED WARMED TEMPERATURES HIGHER  
THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS PUT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS AT 75 DEGREES OR  
ABOVE. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEGAN TO DROP BELOW  
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES.  
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES  
BEGIN TO DROP AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230830-  
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY  
COUNTIES-  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.11 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 31 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.18 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230830-  
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES WARMER  
NEAR THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE  
COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.32 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY UNTIL 1200, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......48 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 42 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.27 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.15 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ020-025>027-230830-  
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER  
NEAR THE COAST.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER  
ALONG THE COAST.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.11 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (290).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ031>033-230830-  
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.  
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE  
COAST.  
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230830-  
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-  
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400, THEN RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.26 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......43 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.19 IN.  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
AFTER 2400.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.24 IN.  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.  
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (280).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.15 IN.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED
 
 
   
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
10 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
 
TL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MI Page Main Text Page