103  
FNUS53 KDTX 231927  
FWFDTX  
 
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
305 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER AND  
MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT  
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY  
TOMORROW FROM PONTIAC SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME BETTER  
ORGANIZED AS IT SINKS INTO THE AREA AND STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND,  
PROVIDING PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THREE-  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.  
 
MIZ047-048-053-060-061-241200-  
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MIDLAND-BAY CITY-SAGINAW-OWOSSO-FLINT  
305 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 8 PM THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY  
AFTER 10 PM UNTIL 5 AM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10 PM. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER  
5 AM. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.  
24 HR TREND......15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-95 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......LITTLE CHANGE.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......760-960 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2 PM. CHANCE OF RAIN.  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.  
24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68-74 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......40-50 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1230-1730 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL  
8 PM THEN RAIN. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90  
NEAR PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.  
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE  
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 90 NEAR PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.  
24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10-15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ049-054-055-062-241200-  
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BAD AXE-CARO-SANDUSKY-LAPEER  
305 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 8 PM THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY  
AFTER 10 PM UNTIL 5 AM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10 PM. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER  
5 AM. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.  
24 HR TREND......15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5-8 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......940-1140 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2 PM. CHANCE OF RAIN.  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
24 HR TREND......15-20 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66-72 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......40-45 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......980-1480 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (340).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL  
8 PM THEN RAIN. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90  
NEAR PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.  
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING  
NORTHEAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......840-1040 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 90 NEAR PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.  
24 HR TREND......10-15 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......750-1250 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (330).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.  
 

 
 
MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-241200-  
ST CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PORT HURON-HOWELL-PONTIAC-WARREN-ANN  
ARBOR-DETROIT-ADRIAN-MONROE  
305 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 8 PM THEN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
10 PM. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.  
24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-92 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......460-660 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
UNTIL 8 AM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
UNTIL 2 PM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTER 8 AM.  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.  
24 HR TREND......20-25 DEGREES WARMER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......30-40 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO  
AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTS TO 30 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1190-1690 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30  
MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.05 IN.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
AFTER 8 PM UNTIL 2 AM THEN RAIN LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.  
24 HR TREND......10-15 DEGREES WARMER.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DIMINISHING TO  
AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......550-750 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 90 NEAR PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.  
24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.  
MIN HUMIDITY........72-82 PERCENT.  
24 HR TREND......10-15 PERCENT WETTER.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2670-3170 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (770).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.  
 

 
 
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
 
 
   
SUNDAY
 
RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS  
AROUND 10 MPH.    
MONDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER  
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 50S.    
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 50S.  
 

 
 
HLO  
 
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