567  
FNUS73 KAPX 091347  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMEL ROAD FB PILES...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
947 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE MORNING HOURS, BUT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE HURON  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH  
TOWARDS EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME  
STORMS WILL COME THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS  
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-SEVERE. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AS MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK  
THROUGH THE AREA.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.  
RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 400-2300 FT  
AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD /300 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /800/.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........59 56 59 62 66 67 68 69  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............69 72 75 77 77 76 75 73  
RH..............61 57 54 52 54 58 62 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 15 15 14 13 13 13 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE/100.......3 5 7 8 8 8 8 7  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.  
RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200-2600 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO EXCELLENT (100-700).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........72 75 78 82 85 88 88 87 87 74 61 47  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............72 71 70 68 65 63 62 62 62 61 60 60  
RH..............68 71 73 78 87 93 97 93 93 93 96 96  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.7 5.4 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W SW SW SW W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 12 9 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 8  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2  
VRATE/100.......7 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS  
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80.  
RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5200 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO  
4800-5900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 1200-2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 8 TO  
10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO EXCELLENT (100-800).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........52 62 61 62 66 66  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............61 65 72 78 80 79  
RH..............97 90 76 62 58 62  
20 FT WIND......SW 1 SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 S 5 S 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1000 1400 3600 5900 2900  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 6 W 5 W 8 W 14 N 10  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 2  
VRATE/100.......1 1 1 3 8 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...MIKE KURZ  
REQUESTED BY...MATT MALESIC  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1712425.0/APX  
 
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