098  
FNUS73 KAPX 151342  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH RIVER ROAD PILES RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
842 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON DECEMBER 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE  
BURN LOCATION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED. SOME LINGERING  
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, WITH SNOW-FREE WEATHER  
RETURNING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL  
QUICKLY VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A  
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME  
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN PERIODS OF SNOW  
SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SNOW  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........21 AT IGNITION...MAX 25.  
RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 74 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST  
5 TO 7 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3000  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5900 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 26 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD /500 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /1500/.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........89 86 83 85 86 88 85  
WEATHER COV.....PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS NUM NUM  
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............21 23 24 24 24 23 22  
RH..............81 77 74 74 74 77 77  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 4.5 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 18 21 23 24 25 26  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 3 3 3  
VRATE/100.......5 8 12 13 14 14 15  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW  
SHOWERS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 12.  
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD TO EXCELLENT (500-1500).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........82 79 77 76 74 72 70 68 68 69 69 70  
WEATHER COV.....NUM SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............21 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 13  
RH..............81 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 84 80 84 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.26 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE/100.......15 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 5  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 19.  
RH..................MIN 67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 10 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (100-400).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........70 70 68 67 65 56  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............13 12 14 16 19 18  
RH..............84 87 84 77 67 70  
20 FT WIND......NW 2 N 2 N 3 NE 3 NE 3 E 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3100 3000 3100 3100 2900  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10 N 6 N 6 N 3 N 2 E 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 3  
VRATE/100.......4 2 2 1 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH  
REQUESTED BY...HOLLY MILLER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1720014.0/APX  
 
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