898  
FNUS73 KAPX 161845  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PHUN RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
245 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
NORTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES A BIT GUSTY, ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE BURN LOCATION ON TUESDAY. MORNING MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY  
MIX OUT UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. LOCALLY LOWER RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF MORNING  
MOISTURE IS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY, BUT STILL  
LIKELY TO EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.  
RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2000  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 17 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR /100 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /1100/.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........2 4 8 10 16 27 33 33 33 32  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............62 65 68 71 73 75 76 77 77 76  
RH..............78 70 59 51 48 43 43 42 42 42  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 2.0 3.3 4.5 5.4 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE/100.......1 3 5 8 9 10 10 11 11 10  
 

 
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH  
REQUESTED BY...RYAN STONE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1812890.0/APX  
.DELDT 07/16/18  
 
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