894  
FNUS73 KAPX 121510  
FWSAPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE RIVER...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1110 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON OCTOBER 12.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE  
DIRECTIONS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT WITH MIXING,  
WILL BECOME EAST AND GENERALLY INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHEAST, BEFORE  
RELAXING AROUND 7PM AND BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 80 PERCENT ALL DAY.  
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THE RAIN AROUND 4 PM, BUT THE LIGHT  
STEADY RAIN WILL BE AFTER 5 PM.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 57.  
RH..................86 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1600-2400  
FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........GOOD /300 AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD /300/.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RN  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............52 54 55 55 55 55 56  
RH..............86 83 80 80 83 86 86  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 5 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 14 13 12 10 10  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE/100.......3 3 3 3 3 2 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE  
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52.  
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO FAIR (100-200).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 98  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 55 55  
RH..............90 93 96 96 96 100 100 96 96 93 96 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S S SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE/100.......2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN THE  
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67.  
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4600 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 20  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........POOR TO EXCELLENT (100-900).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........95 98 88 79 61 67  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN DRZL DRZL NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............54 53 57 63 67 67  
RH..............96 100 93 78 63 61  
20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 1500 2800 4400 4500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 12 SW 15 SW 17 SW 20 W 17  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE/100.......1 1 2 5 9 8  
 

 
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ  
REQUESTED BY...HOLLY MILLER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1717155.0/APX  
 
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