039  
FNUS73 KDTX 221128  
FWSDTX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKADEE RX...MDNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
728 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN AMPLE CLOUD WHICH WILL IN  
TURN KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL WITH HUMIDITIES ELEVATED.  
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH  
WED MIN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT. THIS HIGH WILL  
INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, SUPPORTING WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.  
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)..........89 87 85 83 81 75 69 63  
WEATHER COV......ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE.....RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV.........  
TEMP.............50 49 51 52 53 53 53 54  
RH...............93 94 85 81 78 76 74 72  
EYE LVL WND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
EYE LVL WND SPD..5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7  
EYE LVL WND GST.. 9 9 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)....0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR..NE NE N N N N N NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD..5 6 8 10 13 14 14 13  
HAINES INDEX.....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (35-45 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.  
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING WEST UP  
TO 4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 2  
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%)..........55 38 31 25 22 26  
WEATHER COV......  
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV.........  
TEMP.............55 57 53 49 47 47  
RH...............70 71 82 92 94 97  
EYE LEVEL WIND...NE 6 E 4 NE 4 E 4 SW 4 W 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.. 5  
MIX HGT (FT).....500 400 200 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND...NE 10 E 3 NE 2 E 2 SW 2 W 2  
HAINES INDEX.....3 2 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0 0 0 0 0 0  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-2200 FT AGL  
LATE.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-20000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%)..........26 19 8 4  
WEATHER COV......  
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV.........  
TEMP.............47 54 65 71  
RH...............99 82 60 47  
EYE LEVEL WIND...W 4 W 4 W 4 SW 4  
MIX HGT (FT).....100 200 1000 2100  
TRANSPORT WIND...W 2 W 3 W 6 W 8  
HAINES INDEX.....3 3 4 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0 0 10 20  
 

 
FORECASTER...CONSIDINE  
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1810458.0/DTX  
.DELDT 05/22/18  
.EMAIL OSTERLANDL@MICHIGAN.GOV  
 
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