997  
FNUS73 KDTX 041243  
FWSDTX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FOXFIRE WEST BURN...CITY OF ANN ARBOR , NAP  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
743 AM EST MON DEC 4 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON DECEMBER 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
MILD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON INCREASING  
SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF  
THE SITE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCE  
INCREASES MID AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG  
EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)..........70 73 76 79 82 85 87 88 89 90  
WEATHER COV......SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP.............41 43 45 47 49 52 52 53 54 53  
RH...............74 70 66 62 59 54 55 55 56 59  
EYE LVL WND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD..7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11  
EYE LVL WND GST..15 15 15 20 20 25 25 25 25 25  
MIX HGT (KFT)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD..14 18 22 22 21 20 18 18 17 17  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 30  
TO 38 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (10000-70000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%)..........91 93 96 99 92 76  
WEATHER COV......CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
TEMP.............53 53 53 53 53 52  
RH...............62 70 78 78 79 79  
EYE LEVEL WIND...S 11 S 12 S 13 S 13 S 13 SW 12  
EYE LVL WND GST..25 30 30 35 30 25  
MIX HGT (FT).....500 600 900 1200 1200 1200  
TRANSPORT WIND...S 18 S 24 S 33 S 38 S 38 S 37  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.10 10 30 40 40 40  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 31 TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 43 MPH  
LATE.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (90000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%)..........61 55 68 68  
WEATHER COV......DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV.........  
TEMP.............48 42 42 40  
RH...............74 72 64 55  
EYE LEVEL WIND...SW 11G25 W 10G25 W 11G30 W 12G35  
MIX HGT (FT).....3000 3500 3600 4100  
TRANSPORT WIND...SW 39 W 33 W 32 W 38  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.100 100 100 140  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...TILLEY  
REQUESTED BY...DAVE BORNEMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1719573.0/DTX  
.EMAIL NAP@A2GOV.ORG  
 
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