243  
FNUS73 KDTX 171954  
FWSDTX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HANKARD PRAIRIE RX...MDNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
354 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HILLY TERRAIN IS LIKELY CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN MORE TO  
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BURN SITE. WIND  
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY ARE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (FROM  
210 DEGREES) AND SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WOULD  
EXPECT CONDITIONS AT THE BURN TO TREND MORE IN THIS DIRECTION AS  
YOU GO UPWARDS IN ELEVATION OR BURN SITE BECOMES MORE EXPOSED TO  
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HUMIDITY FALLING OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS TO ABOUT THE MID-30S. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, OR EVEN A  
THUNDERSTORM, BEGIN AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33-37 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AT THE  
LOWEST ELEVATION, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 35 MPH TOWARDS THE TOP OF THE HILL OR IN  
AREAS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 38 TO 39 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (160000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)..........49 50  
WEATHER COV......  
WEATHER TYPE.....  
TSTM COV.........  
TEMP.............86 87  
RH...............36 33  
EYE LVL WND DIR..SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD..10 13  
EYE LVL WND GST..30 40  
MIX HGT (KFT)....5.2 4.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR..SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD..38 39  
HAINES INDEX....3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.170 160  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1400 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 32 TO 39 MPH DECREASING TO 18 TO 26  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY  
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 26 TO 31 MPH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (10000-120000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%)..........52 57 57 57 57 53  
WEATHER COV...... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV......... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP.............86 81 75 70 68 67  
RH...............37 44 55 64 69 71  
EYE LEVEL WIND...SW 13 S 11 S 11 S 11 SW 11 SW 10  
EYE LVL WND GST..40 30 25 25 20 20  
MIX HGT (FT).....3700 1400 700 700 900 900  
TRANSPORT WIND...SW 39 SW 32 S 22 S 22 SW 31 SW 29  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1000.120 40 10 10 30 20  
 

 
FORECASTER...OROW  
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1709651.0/DTX  
.EMAIL OSTERLANDL@MICHIGAN.GOV  
 
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